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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 6)

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    SN
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    #1203986374

    As I mentioned before here, every year since 2009 there are at least three PG or PG-13 nominees. That’s why I think News of the World and/or Soul will get in.

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    CateNicole
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    #1203986467

    https://www.thenation.com/article/culture/aaron-sorkins-inane-history-lesson/

    Another reminder that Chicago 7 is revisionist BS and that awarding/admiring it is destructive.

    FYC: Michaela Coel and Rosamund Pike

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203986479

    I guess News of the World could be that film bit I just see absolutely no buzz for it at the moment. It will be a strong contender below the line but it absolutely needs to get in at the Globes to have any chance at a Best Picture nom. Unlike Ford v Ferrari, it won’t be able to recover if the Globes snub it.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Dominique Fishback
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    wolfali
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    #1203986497

    I was thinking Mank could be that film but I think Seyfried and Fincher are getting the 4th/5th slots in their categories (although I am predicting Screenplay and Actor snubs).

    needs to get in at the Globes to have any chance at a Best Picture nom.

    It won’t get in at the Globes. Maybe Zengel but I have never seen a film so divisively received by HFPA members online.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203986517

    It won’t get in at the Globes. Maybe Zengel but I have never seen a film so divisively received by HFPA members online.

    Then it has no chance of getting in at the Oscars. The Globes are the most populist precursor aside from maybe the PGA’s, and News of the World’s chances are entirely fueled by box office receipts and audience response, since no critics or Oscar predictors have shown an ounce of passion for it. So if the Globes snub it then it’s all over.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Dominique Fishback
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203986519

    News of the World does feel like a “PGA 10th slot that gets in nowhere else” like A Quiet Place, Knives Out, Wonder Woman, Deadpool, Straight Outta Compton, etc… so I could see then nominating it even if no one else does.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Dominique Fishback
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    SN
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    #1203986565

    https://www.thenation.com/article/culture/aaron-sorkins-inane-history-lesson/

    Another reminder that Chicago 7 is revisionist BS and that awarding/admiring it is destructive.

    Let’s hope the backlash continues and kills its Oscar chances.

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    wolfali
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    #1203986599

    In case people are “worried” about The Father under-performing…

    https://twitter.com/jasonosia/status/1349918661369356290

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    SN
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    #1203986605

    In case people are “worried” about The Father under-performing…

    https://twitter.com/jasonosia/status/1349918661369356290

    Finally. I hope it leaks so I’ll be able to watch it lol

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    Qoslca
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    #1203986609

    News of the World does feel like a “PGA 10th slot that gets in nowhere else” like A Quiet Place, Knives Out, Wonder Woman, Deadpool, Straight Outta Compton, etc… so I could see then nominating it even if no one else does.

    I don’t know. I think people are underestimating the appeal of the populist (even though I hate this term) “dad film” that the Academy gravitates toward. At least one film of such type always makes it in the Best Picture line-up each year – think Bohemian Rhapsody, Ford v. Ferrari, The Post, Bridge of Spies, etc. News of the World fits that category to a tee. Even though I’m predicting it’ll garner a Best Picture nomination, I’d argue that Promising Young Woman for example is much more that, quote, “PGA 10th slot” film.

    My username is an acronym of “Quiet On Set! Lights, Camera, Action.”

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    wolfali
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    #1203986615

    Finally. I hope it leaks so I’ll be able to watch it lol

    It’s very good and I honestly can’t wait to hear your thoughts on it.

    Whilst I understand the notion that this year is a “weak one” I have actually enjoyed a lot of the films I’ve seen so far (sans Mank and Chicago 7).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203986617

    I’d argue that Promising Young Woman is much more that, quote, “PGA 10th slot” film.

    Promising Young Woman feels safe for Critic’s Choice recognition though. And The Trial of the Chicago 7, Minari and Soul are there to take the feel-good populist votes, and those films have actual passion, unlike News of the World.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Dominique Fishback
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203986619

    In case people are “worried” about The Father under-performing… https://twitter.com/jasonosia/status/1349918661369356290

    Is that a Flopbilly Elegy I see? 👀

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Dominique Fishback
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    wolfali
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    #1203986624

    Is that a Flopbilly Elegy I see? 👀

    ?

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Marcus.H
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    #1203986630

    I saw this from a pundit and it’s exactly the same thought as mine:

    “BP winner will be among Chicago7, Judas, and Nomadland.”

    Since Nomadland doesn’t look like a typical BP winner at all and I’m not into Chicago7, I really hope Judas perform well. I really don’t think the HBO Max thing would affect much. Besides, no other contenders this year seem to be able to come close to these 3 films.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini
    FYC: Soul & Judas and the Black Messiah

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