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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 6)

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    John Berchmans
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    I really don’t think the HBO Max thing would affect much

    I don’t think it will affect it’s chances at a nomination but the win seems very unlikely when we’ve already seen a majority of Academy voters band together to vote against a streaming contender. And HBO Max is far more hated by the industry than Netflix ever was.

    In fact, the Academy’s hatred of streaming services is why Nomadland feels like such a strong lock for Best Picture. Yes, it’s coming to Hulu, but that’s only after sticking with it’s theatrical only date the entire season, and it’s still doing a wide release theatrical rollout. And unlike Judas which is doing to same, Hulu doesn’t have the same baggage that HBO Max does, because it’s a specialist streaming service that’s only avaliable in the US and not a massive conglomerate trying to provide an alternative to the theatrical experience like Netflix and AT&T. And also it’s still a film from beloved studio Searchlight, which is doing most of the campaigning. So Nomadland still feels super safe because I doubt the Acadeny awards a Netflix film in this year of all years.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    Miss
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    I’m having PTSD and freakin that Minari could be completely shut out.. someone talk some sense into me

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    Marcus.H
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    I don’t think it will affect it’s chances at a nomination but the win seems very unlikely when we’ve already seen a majority of Academy voters band together to vote against a streaming contender. And HBO Max is far more hated by the industry than Netflix ever was.

    In fact, the Academy’s hatred of streaming services is why Nomadland feels like such a strong lock for Best Picture. Yes, it’s coming to Hulu, but that’s only after sticking with it’s theatrical only date the entire season, and it’s still doing a wide release theatrical rollout. And unlike Judas which is doing to same, Hulu doesn’t have the same baggage that HBO Max does, because it’s a specialist streaming service that’s only avaliable in the US and not a massive conglomerate trying to provide an alternative to the theatrical experience like Netflix and AT&T. And also it’s still a film from beloved studio Searchlight, which is doing most of the campaigning. So Nomadland still feels super safe because I doubt the Acadeny awards a Netflix film in this year of all years.

    What films suffer from this “industry conspiracy against streaming service” thing in BP race exactly?

    Don’t tell me ROMA.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini
    FYC: Soul & Judas and the Black Messiah

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    Qoslca
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    I’m having PTSD and freakin that Minari could be completely shut out.. someone talk some sense into me

    *insert me talking sense here*

    My username is an acronym of “Quiet On Set! Lights, Camera, Action.”

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    gorman
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    Having just watched One Night in Miami I think it’s safe to rule King out in Director. It’s solid, but not particularly special work. The film seems like one that could sneak it’s way into Picture, it’s pretty crowd-pleasing, relevant and solid. I didn’t love it, and I’d be surprised if lots of people did, but I wouldn’t begrudge it anything. I thought all 4 actors were good. I’m surprised Odom Jr. is being campaigned as Supporting, but I think he’s a safe third behind Kaluuya and Cohen there. I don’t think Ben-Adir will get in, but I’m excited to see what he does next. It’ll probably get in Screenplay – it’s dialogue heavy so the script stands out, even though like Ma Rainey I don’t think a lot was done to the play to make it very cinematic. There’s no techs that stand out for me really. I think it could win Original Song though, it’s a pretty impressive song and it’s a nice way to reward Odom Jr. if you’re not voting for him in Supporting.

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    Cordelia
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    I’m having PTSD and freakin that Minari could be completely shut out.. someone talk some sense into me

    Know that Minari will gain over time in reputation, and its merits will remain even if the Academy does not recognise them.

    I cannot comfort you because I have that same gut feeling too.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    SN
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    #1203986874

    I think Minari is safe. While A24 isn’t performing well since Lady Bird, this is their most accessible film since then. It’s also a Plan B production, which certainly helps a lot. The fact it already has leaked screeners means it’s not gonna have a visibility problem.

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    wolfali
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    With regards to <i>One Night in Miami </i>whilst I am sceptical about its Picture chances and am not rooting for Ben-Adir I do think it’s plausible for him to get the 5th slot over Yeun and Oldman on the basis that he’s playing Malcolm X.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    LLLhawks
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    I don’t know. I think people are underestimating the appeal of the populist (even though I hate this term) “dad film” that the Academy gravitates toward. At least one film of such type always makes it in the Best Picture line-up each year – think Bohemian Rhapsody, Ford v. Ferrari, The Post, Bridge of Spies, etc. News of the World fits that category to a tee. Even though I’m predicting it’ll garner a Best Picture nomination, I’d argue that Promising Young Woman for example is much more that, quote, “PGA 10th slot” film.

    Man lol. Tom Hanks really is a “dad film” kinda actor.

    I just love movies. And awards.

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    JackO
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    Just watched News of the World. The more traditional Academy voters will love it. It’s the Ford v Ferrari of the season.

    It’s a contender in Costumes, Production Design, Score, and Cinematography.

    remember when the haters were attacking it’s box office? lol

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    JackO
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    In case people are “worried” about The Father under-performing…

    https://twitter.com/jasonosia/status/1349918661369356290

    I see Hillbilly Elegy. Am I supposed to be seeing something else?

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    Leo's burner
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    With regards to <i>One Night in Miami </i>whilst I am sceptical about its Picture chances and am not rooting for Ben-Adir I do think it’s plausible for him to get the 5th slot over Yeun and Oldman on the basis that he’s playing Malcolm X.

    If Ben-Adir gets in then Ahmed is not getting in.

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    wolfali
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    #1203987304

    If Ben-Adir gets in then Oldman is not getting in.

    Agreed.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    AmnistY21
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    If Ben-Adir gets in then Ahmed is not getting in.

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    Leo's burner
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    Some people just don’t want to hear the truth on these forums…

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