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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 6)

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    Miles
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    1. Nomadland
    2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
    3. Judas and the Black Messiah
    4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    5. Mank
    6. Promising Young Woman
    7. The Father
    8. One Night in Miami

    9. Minari
    10. Da 5 Bloods
    11. Sound of Metal
    12. News of the World

    1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
    2. David Fincher, Mank
    3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    4. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
    5. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah

    6. Florian Zeller, The Father
    7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
    8. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
    9. Regina King, One Night in Miami
    10. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

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    Cordelia
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    I’m going to be honest, I think trying to read tea leaf patterns isn’t the way we should go. Sometimes, recurrent themes – such as racial identity, activism, how art expresses yourself – just exist. They were made roughly in the same time, with the same cultural background. This is also a year where big budget films that might vary up the lineup either weren’t that good (sorry Tenet), or delayed (Dune).

    I know before any precursor nominations this is kinda dull, but keep your wits sharp. Focus on what it seems like the voters are

    • Watching (access to screeners, priority for voters)
    • Liking (how are VOTERS [not the general public, remember] responding? Do they have fondness? Is it divisive)
    • Recommending to others (thus making them the priority films – word of mouth even in such a highly marketed scene matters)
    • Passionate about

    Let Me Ask The Thread This – What Films This Oscars Season Will Be The Priority Watches?

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    John Berchmans
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    Don’t tell me ROMA.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    Marcus.H
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    Lol so ROMA IS the one you’re saying? So you think ROMA, a foreign-language artistic movie with literally no actual storyline, could have won Oscars BP if it’s not from Netflix? Do you think it’s mainly because of Netflix? Some of you hate Green Book so much that you simply don’t know what most people feel about these 2 films and directly attribute the ROMA loss to the Netflix thing.

    And even if your so-called “industry conspiracy” was that powerful, it won’t be as strong as 2018 because the whole industry knows streaming service is unstoppable, especially after going through this pandemic.

    I’m glad ROMA is what you referred to because now I can keep my confidence for Judas. What will really harm Judas is this late release time, WB marketing plans, and the film quality itself. The main factor is not HBO MAX.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    Victor
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    After watching One Night in Miami I’m thinking that if they wanna award an ensemble based movie they should go to this and NOT Chicago 7

    This was powerful, damn.

    Still, Nomadland is, until now, the best.

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    John Berchmans
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    Lol so ROMA IS the one you’re saying? So you think ROMA, a foreign-language artistic movie with literally no actual storyline, could have won Oscars BP if it’s not from Netflix? Do you think it’s mainly because of Netflix? Some of you hate Green Book so much that you simply don’t know what most people feel about these 2 films and directly attribute the ROMA loss to the Netflix thing.

    You can’t argue that Roma lost because of foreign language bias when Parasite won literally the year after. And Roma was just as acclaimed as Parasite was. Also, unlike Parasite, Roma actually had precursors support.

    And you do realize that a slow based, low budget artistic film called Moonlight beat one of the biggest awards season juggernauts of all time, right?

    There were probably other factors as to why Roma lost, but it’s been proven that Acadeny voters deliberately voted against Netflix. Leaked ballots had people saying anonymously “I’m not voting for Roma because I don’t want Netflix to win”. Spielberg himself was very public in his desire not to give Netflix awards season recognition, and if you think he doesn’t have the power to sway others to join him, I don’t know what to tell you.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    marty
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    Good job, you two. The users known as Leo’s Burner and David Holmes do indeed have the same IP address.

    💀

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    gabspss
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    Maybe that’s just me, but I think Moonlight is not slow paced.

    It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!

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    John Berchmans
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    Even if you put the whole Netflix/Roma drama aside, the backlash towards HBO Max is unlike anything we’ve ever seen before in the industry. Directors are literally BOYCOTTING Warner Bros because of this, including some that have worked with them for their entire careers like Christopher Nolan and Denis Villeneuve. When was the last time you ever say Directors boycot a major movie studio? You’re as dumb as a brick if you think this won’t have some kind of consequence on Warner’s movies going forward.

    Now, will it affect Judas’ chances in other categories? Probably not, because the truth is, the industry doesn’t care who win Best Screenplay or Best Director or Best Actor. They only care about the Top prize: Best Picture, which is why Roma was allowed to win other categories but not this one. They’ll do the same thing for Judas. Don’t expect a movie being released by a hated streaming service to ever win on the preferential ballot. Nomadland will break the streaming curse only because it’s releasing in both theaters and Hulu and Hulu didn’t publicly say “Fuck You” to the theater industry like HBO Max did.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    JackO
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    Greengrass in Director? God, some people just don’t know how to predict.

    he has a much stronger chance than your fave the father at this point.

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    wolfali
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    So Netflix have updated their FYC site and here are a few striking observations:

    – Zendaya and John David Washington are producers on Malcolm and Marie.

    – Netflix now has a Q and A for <i>The Life Ahead </i>with Sophia Loren and a Q and A for <i>Pieces of a Woman </i>with Ellen Burstyn and Vanessa Kirby up.

    – The I’m Thinking of Ending Things page is almost entirely filled with material promoting Charlie Kauffman’s screenplay.

    – The Da 5 Bloods page has a TONNE of FYC material including:

    – Its screenplay.
    – 3 videos on Spike Lee’s vision for the film.
    – A FYC interview with Delroy Lindo.
    – A conversation with Lee moderated by Barry Jenkins.
    – A playlist with Terence Blanchard’s score.

    – The page for The 40 Year Old Version has a link to an Instagram page for the film and an FYC interview about character writing and development with Radha Blank.

    – The page for Mank has two interviews (one with Lily Collins and the other with Amanda Seyfried) and has all of Reznor and Ross’s score in a playlist.

    The Midnight Sky page has a roundtable with the cast and all of Alexandre Desplat’s score in a playlist.

    – The page for <i>The Trial of the Chicago 7 </i>has:

    – A link for Instagram, Twitter and Facebook pages promoting the film.
    – A tonne of FYC interviews with the cast and Sorkin.
    – A link to a music video for the original song.
    – Daniel Pemberton’s score in a playlist.
    – A series of podcast episodes under the “Trial of the Chicago 7 official podcast” banner.

    https://film.netflixawards.com

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Marcus.H
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    You can’t argue that Roma lost because of foreign language bias when Parasite won literally the year after. And Roma was just as acclaimed as Parasite was. Also, unlike Parasite, Roma actually had precursors support. And you do realize that a slow based, low budget artistic film called Moonlight beat one of the biggest awards season juggernauts of all time, right? There were probably other factors as to why Roma lost, but it’s been proven that Acadeny voters deliberately voted against Netflix. Leaked ballots had people saying anonymously “I’m not voting for Roma because I don’t want Netflix to win”. Spielberg himself was very public in his desire not to give Netflix awards season recognition, and if you think he doesn’t have the power to sway others to join him, I don’t know what to tell you.

    First of all, Chicago7 is still the frontrunner. I just don’t agree that HBO Max is Judas’ biggest weakness.

    1. Parasite can win because it has a strong screenplay (All Green Book, Parasite and Moonlight won Best Screenplay.) ROMA is an artistic film with no specific storyline. If it’s not from Netflix, it still couldn’t beat Green Book. Are we still gonna ignore how important the screenplay is?

    2. Moonlight is slow but it’s not an artistic film as ROMA at all if you have watched it. It has a strong story and  won Oscars for the screenplay.  And don’t forget the huge La la land backlash.

    3. We all know there WERE people voting against Netflix that year but you don’t actually know if it was the main reason why ROMA lost. And this is 2020 now and I don’t think this kind of streaming service hatred will be as strong/effective as 2018 anymore.

    4. Again, Judas’  main weakness is its late release time and the film quality itself, not HBO Max. I don’t even see pundits mention that problem while analyzing Judas’ BP chances, either.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    gorman
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    4. Again, Judas’ main weakness is its late release time and the film quality itself, not HBO Max. I don’t even see pundits mention that problem while analyzing Judas’ BP chances, either.

    I actually the late release is a strength this year. Sundance will drum up buzz and prepare it for a late burst towards the Oscars, which are still a full 2 months after Judas releases and if it releases to enough acclaim and fanfare I can well see it influencing voters at the Oscars and other televised awards.

     

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    Cordelia
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    Cersei being shamed, naked, in game of thrones

    Upon realising I liked Ammonite more than basically every other film this Oscars Race* upon rewatching it, this is what I imagined this thread’s response will be.

    *Except Nomadland and Wolfwalkers.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    marty
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    Aug 18th, 2020
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    Cersei being shamed, naked, in game of thrones

    Upon realising I liked Ammonite more than basically every other film this Oscars Race* upon rewatching it, this is what I imagined this thread’s response will be.

    *Except Nomadland and Wolfwalkers.

    I respect that

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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