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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 6)

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    wolfali
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    #1203993232

    But she’s still not very well known. It took me months to discover she was the woman who ruined Killing Eve (good she redeemed herself with PYW), and I didn’t knew she was in The Crown until weeks ago. She’s no Greta Gerwig when she directed Lady Bird.

    I didn’t say she was Greta Gerwig when she directed Lady Bird though or that she was very well known.

    She still is more well known than Shaka King and Will Berson within the industry and has more individual buzz right now going for her (which is a good sign for her).

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    CateNicole
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    #1203993330

    Does anyone else think One Night in Miami is being underestimated?

    FYC: Michaela Coel and Rosamund Pike

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    SN
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    #1203993375

    Does anyone else think One Night in Miami is being underestimated?

    Not really, but I feel it could overperform at SAG (Ensemble, Actor, Supporting Actor).

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    Monsoon 🌊
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    #1203993783

    Does anyone else think One Night in Miami is being underestimated?

    No. It’s being fairly rated as a contender. Voters will probably respond very well to its cast and screenplay. Regina might have a hard time getting in Best Director though. Their branch tends to be snooty towards women & POC. I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s snubbed.

    👑Cicely Tyson (1924-2021)
    👑Mary Wilson (1944-2021)

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    MysticMagix
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    #1203993838

    https://twitter.com/Variety/status/1352070742758879232?s=19

     

    Wow

    A little bit of Magic never hurt anybody.

    ~ MYSTIC

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    wolfali
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    #1203993895

    Films in the prediction centre ranked by IMDB votes (those that have been out for two weeks or less are in bold). Changes in ranking on this chart are in brackets:

    1. Tenet – 271,972 votes
    2. Soul – 141,074 votes
    3. The Trial of the Chicago 7 – 85,496 votes
    4. Palm Springs – 71,835 votes
    5. I’m Thinking of Ending Things – 58,520 votes
    6. Da 5 Bloods – 37,491 votes
    7. Mank – 33,178 votes
    8. Emma. – 29,134 votes
    9. Sound of Metal – 23,015 votes
    10. Hillbilly Elegy – 21,464 votes

    11. On the Rocks – 19,647 votes
    12. The Prom – 19,082 votes
    13. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – 18,377 votes
    14. Pieces of a Woman – 16,066 votes
    15. Promising Young Woman – 14,982 votes (+2 positions on chart)
    16. Never Rarely Sometimes Always – 12,792 votes (-1 position on chart)
    17. The Personal History of David Copperfield – 12,543 votes (-1 position on chart)
    18. First Cow – 8,114 votes
    19. News of the World – 6,919 votes (+1 position on chart)
    20. One Night in Miami – 6,022 votes (+1 position on chart)

    21. Ammonite – 5,247 votes

    By user average score:

    1. Soul – 8.1
    2. Sound of Metal – 7.8
    2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 – 7.8
    4. Promising Young Woman – 7.5 
    4. Tenet – 7.5
    6. Never Rarely Sometimes Always – 7.4
    6. Palm Springs – 7.4
    8. One Night in Miami – 7.3 (+1 position on the chart)
    9. First Cow – 7.1
    9. Mank – 7.1
    9. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – 7.1
    9. Pieces of a Woman – 7.1

    13. News of the World – 6.9
    14. Emma – 6.7
    14. Hillbilly Elegy – 6.7
    16. I’m Thinking of Ending Things – 6.6
    17. Ammonite – 6.5
    17. Da 5 Bloods – 6.5
    17. On the Rocks – 6.5
    20. The Personal History of David Copperfield – 6.4
    21. The Prom – 6.0

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    SN
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    Calvin
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    #1203993927

    Hoping for a potential Chung dark horse nomination. Probably won’t happen, but here’s to hoping.

    FYC:

    Picture - Minari, Nomadland, Another Round, Promising Young Woman
    Director - Chloe Zhao (Nomadland), Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
    Actor - Steven Yeun (Minari), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
    Actress - Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
    S. Actor - Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
    S. Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    JackO
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    #1203993954

    Does anyone else think One Night in Miami is being underestimated?

    only place people are really underestimating it is in actor.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203994197

    Soul is eligible 🙏

    Not 100% confirmed yet for AMPAS, but I think it should be safe. At worst I think Jon Batiste will not be included.

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    AmnistY21
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    #1203994278

    These anonymous Oscar and BAFTA voters reveal their preferences.  They loved Nomadland, Sound of Metal, Another Round, Collective and Boys State. For performances they singled out Francis McDormand, Riz Ahmed and Daniel Kaluuya.

    https://www.screendaily.com/features/awards-whispers-anonymous-ampas-and-bafta-voters-on-viewing-this-years-contenders/5156411.article

     

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    wolfali
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    #1203994291

    These anonymous Oscar and BAFTA voters reveal their preferences. They loved Nomadland, Sound of Metal, Another Round, Collective and Boys State. For performances they singled out Francis McDormand, Riz Ahmed and Daniel Kaluuya. https://www.screendaily.com/features/awards-whispers-anonymous-ampas-and-bafta-voters-on-viewing-this-years-contenders/5156411.article

    There seems to be a lot of praise for Babyteeth and Saint Maud from the BAFTA voters. I am more confident in my prediction of both those films over-performing on the BAFTA long-list.

    Most overrated? The Trial Of The Chicago 7!

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    nevkm
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    #1203994297

    This BAFTA and AMPAS voter is an icon:

    “So yes, I was irritated at the idea of having to watch another iteration of Ben Affleck as an alcoholic man who can’t express his feelings, but I have been viewing my assigned films dutifully and sat through it”

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
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    #1203994303

    These anonymous Oscar and BAFTA voters reveal their preferences. They loved Nomadland, Sound of Metal, Another Round, Collective and Boys State. For performances they singled out Francis McDormand, Riz Ahmed and Daniel Kaluuya.

    https://www.screendaily.com/features/awards-whispers-anonymous-ampas-and-bafta-voters-on-viewing-this-years-contenders/5156411.article

    Any more standouts?
    Babyteeth by Shannon Murphy is sensational.

    Any standouts so far?

    Babyteeth is my favourite film of the year

    Taste.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203994364

    Finally saw One Night in Miami last night. It was an extremely good film, actually. The performances weren’t quite as good as Ma Rainey, but the direction and staging of the film was so much better: it felt a lot less like a filmed stage play and more like an actual film. The cinematography and editing in particular were a huge step-uo from Ma Rainey. Kingsley Ben-Adir and Leslie Odom Jr were definetely the standouts, as it was their feud and the way Malcolm X and Sam Cooke push each other to confront their flaws throughout the film that makes for a good chunk of the screentime. I quite liked Eli Goree as well: he really sold the bragadocious, whole-life-ahead-of-him character of Cassius Clay. And it’s good to see Lance Reddick in things: he’s become one of my favorite underrated actors between John Wick, Quantum Break, and now this.

    As I said before, Regina King did an excellent job with directing the film and making it feel like a natural transition from stage to screen: I would love to see her get nominated, but I doubt she will because the director’s branch is so male biased and a Black female getting nominated alongside Chloe Zhao seems almost impossible. I’m even more certain that this film is 100% safe for Best Picture recognition, however: the film’s central theme that famous people should use their platforms to speak out against social injustices, bit that it has to be their choice and not something others force onto them, is something that Academy members will fall absolutely head-over-heels for (especially since this theme focuses largely on Hollywood stars Sam Cooke and Jim Brown). I also think the Score would have been nominated if it were eligible: it’s a shame that it’s not because I quite liked Terrence Blanchard’s work here.

    The only parts that disapointed me were Leslie Odom Jr’s song at the end, which was surprisingly low-key and frankly unremarkable (I doubt he’s going to win for this like some people think), and the fact that Jim Brown’s arc, while compelling, didn’t get nearly as much time as the other 3 to be reflected on. I get why Malcolm X invited Cassius Clay and Sam Cooke, but why did he invite Jim Brown: it doesn’t seem like he had any plans for Brown. Aldis Hodge still did a great job with what he was given though. I also thought it was a bit weird that Malcolm X telling Cassius Clay that he was leaving the Nation of Islam happened at the very end of the film, since it was the whole reason he brought Clay over, and thus Clay didn’t get much time to make his ultimate decision before the reporters came and the moment felt a bit hollow. Aside from that, this was a really good movie. I expect to see it in Picture, Screenplay, Supporting Actor, and Song at least. And it’s a shame Best Actor is so competitive this year, because otherwise Kingsley Ben-Adir would likely be nominated too.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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