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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 6)

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    Liebchen
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    #1203995241

    That is really selling short the accessibility (and rooting factor) of Sound of Metal, but that is par for the course in this preseason.

    Certainly, but it is not a huge critical favorite, that alone makes the overconfidence questionable, and so far its performance with critic groups is objectively the reason behind the mass predictions, not accessibility. Furthermore, it has yet to be considered a major “player” outside of acting.

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    JackO
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    #1203995243

    Sound of Metal reminds me of stuff like The Florida Project, Drive, Inside Llewyn Davis, Carol, If Beale Street Could Talk, The Big Sick etc… in the sense that they had everything to land at the Oscar but ultimately failed to max out nods, despite their presence in critics circle awards and precursors. Some of them ended up with nominations and Regina even won for her film, in this present case this could just be a nomination for Riz (if he is lucky) and nothing else.

    News of the World is more likely to get nominated for Picture imo.

    Totally agreed with this. I don’t think this forum drooling over the lead actor counts as a “rooting factor”.

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203995250

    but it is not a huge critical favorite

    You are actually making my point here. You compared it with all of these films that were disproportionately hits with critics, which Sound of Metal is not and which is not a recipe for success at the Oscars. It is not inaccessible like those films with their cold antiheroes.

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    Liebchen
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    #1203995259

    You are actually making my point here. You compared it with all of these films that were disproportionately hits with critics, which is not a recipe for success at the Oscars. Sound of Metal is not inaccessible like that. It is not about some cold antihero.

    Fair enough although we would not be discussing it in this specific thread without the nominations it got from critics, as few as they are. For all I know, there are enough films to keep it out of Best Picture category.

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    wolfali
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    #1203995673

    The thing I’ve seen several times with Sound of Metal is it has been dubbed (only by users of this site) as an inaccessible indie in the vein of First Reformed and Hereditary and admittedly whilst I haven’t seen <i>Sound of Metal </i>yet that sounds like quite a bizarre comparison. I don’t see how a commercially successful film about a drummer losing his hearing is equivalent to a commercial flop (I liked First Reformed) about an eco-terrorist or an inaccessible gory indie horror film.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Lucas
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    #1203995751

    Sound of Metal isn’t inaccessible at all, is a very straightforward drama with a little bit of an indie vibe, that’s all.

    I guess we aren’t predicting it for Best Picture because we don’t see enough support across the board besides Actor and S. Actor; Screenplay and Editing don’t seem likely, Director and Cinematography are pretty much off the table, Score is ineligible… It’s the frontrunner for Sound tho

    It could definitely get nominated, audiences are loving it, but at the moment it’s not the most easy one to predict.

    FYC

    Best Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

    Best Actress: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

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    gorman
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    #1203996102

    I’m conscious that I’ve been doing Sound of Metal a bit of a disservice in my own predictions because I haven’t seen it and sort of just assumed it was an indie favourite with a decent shot in Actor. I’m still yet to see it, but it does seem like one that’s on the periphery in quite a lot of races and could get up to 5/6 noms if it’s well-received. It seems perfectly accessible, widely seen, very well-acted and to revolve around a poignant theme which looks pretty good for an Oscar push, especially with Amazon campaigning it. It is still a difficult one to predict though because it’s on the bubble in most; I still think it could score anywhere between 1 (Ahmed) and about 6 (Picture, Ahmed, Raci, Screenplay, Editing, Sound) noms. Interesting one.

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    BetteDavis
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    #1203996140

    Malcom and Marie is winning Best Picture!!!!

    My profile on Letterboxd https://letterboxd.com/Icecreamb

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    wolfali
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    #1203996160

    Variety have given The Father a visibility gift with that Actors on Actors video with Hopkins and Foster.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203996226

    Updated Predictions

    Picture

    1. Nomadland (Searchlight) (-)
    2. The Father (SPC) (-)
    3. Promising Young Woman (Focus Features) (-)
    4. The Trial of the Chicago 7  (Netflix) (-)
    5. Minari (A24) (+1)
    6. Sound of Metal (Amazon) (-1)
    7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Netflix) (-)
    8. Da 5 Bloods (Netflix) (-)

    9. Judas and the Black Messiah (Warner Bros.) (-)

    10. Mank (Netflix) (-)

    11. Soul (Disney) (+1)
    12. One Night in Miami (Amazon) (+1)
    13. News of the World (Universal)
    14. Pieces of a Woman (Netflix)
    15. The Mauritanian (STX)

    Director

    1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
    2. Florian Zeller, The Father
    3. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
    4. David Fincher, Mank
    5. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

    6. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
    7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods (+1)
    8. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7 (+1)
    9. Kornel Mundruczo, Pieces of a Woman (+1)
    10. Regina King, One Night in Miami (+1)

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Victor
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    #1203996250

    Soul is smashing with audiences

    https://deadline.com/2021/01/pixar-soul-historic-nielsen-streaming-win-christmas-disney-netflix-1234678320/

    Don’t rule it out too soon

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    Lucas
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    Jun 24th, 2020
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    #1203996333

    Regina King will be hosting SNL on February 13th

    FYC

    Best Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

    Best Actress: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

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    Lucas
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    #1203996372

    Soul is smashing with audiences https://deadline.com/2021/01/pixar-soul-historic-nielsen-streaming-win-christmas-disney-netflix-1234678320/ Don’t rule it out too soon

    Soul not being a lock for a nomination with that critical and commercial success is wrong in so many levels

    FYC

    Best Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

    Best Actress: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

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    John Berchmans
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    Jan 22nd, 2018
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    #1203996424

    On the Rocks was the only deal between A24 and Apple TV+ and it was an Apple production from the very beginning. I don’t really know why you were expecting such a thing.

    I had heard that Apple and A24 had an ongoing exclusive agreement in place. Is that not true?

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    John Berchmans
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    Jan 22nd, 2018
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    #1203996433

    It’s the frontrunner for Sound tho

    Maybe in our hearts, but in reality this isn’t true. All Sound winners since the preferential ballot have gotten Best Picture nominations (with the lone exception of Skyfall’s tied win for Sound Editing) so unless SoM gets one it won’t win.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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