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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 7)

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    Butz
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    Oct 15th, 2020
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    #1204003935

    I might have to eat my words I have had about Da 5 Bloods. It’s messy and definitely far from great, and I doubt that it would have gotten in ANYWHERE if a director that wasn’t Spike Lee had made the same movie, but given what happened today and the fact that it’s likely to get in at the Globes I can see it making the top 8.

    FYC:

    Lead Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

    Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

    Supporting Actor: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    -----------------------------

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204003947

    Honestly, if I was at Netflix I’d shuffle around and maybe make Da 5 Bloods the #1 priority. It has the best chance at Director and getting both above and below the line nominations of any of their films, by the virtue of not being a glorified stage show nor Mank.

    Judging by Netflix’s FYC page and list of materials it looks like Da 5 Bloods and The Trial of the Chicago 7 are their top 2 priorities.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Lucas
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    Jun 24th, 2020
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    #1204003965

    Fincher seems less likely every day. Until the Globes nominations happen we won’t know for sure, but I’m ready to drop him.

    FYC

    Best Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

    Best Actress: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

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    Cordelia
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    Jul 15th, 2018
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    #1204003967

    Fincher seems less likely every day. Until the Globes nominations happen we won’t know for sure, but I’m ready to drop him.

    I’m not dropping him yet because he is still filling a gap for big established auteurs in the Oscars nomination other than Spike Lee. Mank at the globes though? Expect snubs.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    marty
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    Aug 18th, 2020
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    #1204003990

    Only 2 films that won NBR this century have missed a BP Oscar nomination- Quills and A Most Violent Year, both of which also missed the AFI list. Not that I’m using these awards as an indicator, but D5B is stronger than both of those. It’s getting in. The way I always knew, and yet people were going on and on about how it came out too long ago or had no buzz or other nonsense.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    Butz
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    #1204003994

    My predicted Picture line-up and the expected other nominations (wins in italics):

    • Da 5 Bloods (Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Sound)
    • Judas and the Black Messiah (Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Editing)
    • Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Actress, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design, Make-up and Hairstyling)
    • Mank (Director, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Original Score, Make-up and Hairstyling, Sound)
    • Minari (Director, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Original Score)
    • Nomadland (Director, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing)
    • One Night in Miami (Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Song)
    • The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Director, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Original Song, Editing)
    • if 9 nominees: Promising Young Woman (Actress, Original Screenplay)
    • if 10 nominees: The Father (Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Editing)

    Hoping I’m wrong and Da 5 Bloods drops out (haven’t seen The Father and PYW but if they are as interesting as I expect them to be I would prefer them infinitely).

    FYC:

    Lead Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

    Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

    Supporting Actor: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    -----------------------------

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    S.N.
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204004048

    Netflix is not gonna have four Best Picture nominees and Chicago 7 and Ma Rainey aren’t losing it. If someone is snubbed in favour of Da 5 Bloods, it’s Mank. But as I explained before, every year there’s at least one Picture/Director nominee with strong presence in the crafts. For now, I can’t see any other film besides Mank doing that.

    Of course the NBR win helps but it’s not impossible they’re wrong this time. I’ll wait until the Globes and industry noms to see if Da 5 Bloods is an actual contender.

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    Brayden Fitzsimmons
    Joined:
    May 3rd, 2015
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    #1204004105

    Netflix is not gonna have four Best Picture nominees

    They nearly had three last year without a global pandemic killing theatres.

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    S.N.
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    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204004128

    And? There are enough contenders from other studios.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    Feb 23rd, 2017
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    #1204004268

    Only 2 films that won NBR this century have missed a BP Oscar nomination- Quills and A Most Violent Year, both of which also missed the AFI list. Not that I’m using these awards as an indicator, but D5B is stronger than both of those. It’s getting in. The way I always knew, and yet people were going on and on about how it came out too long ago or had no buzz or other nonsense.

    I knew from the start that it was going to be a Best Picture nominee. I never bought the ‘no buzz’ nonsense. We wouldn’t be talking about it right now if that was remotely true.

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204004303

    For now, I can’t see any other film besides Mank doing that.

    Theoretically Da 5 Bloods could have a strong crafts presence.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Miles
    Joined:
    Oct 22nd, 2016
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    #1204004321

    Netflix is not gonna have four Best Picture nominees

    But… why not?

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    Riley Chow
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    Oct 11th, 2010
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    #1204004365

    The last thirteen National Board of Review Award winners for Best Director lost the Best Director Oscar. Well, seven of them were actually not even nominated.

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    Gabe Guarin
    Joined:
    Feb 23rd, 2017
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    #1204004392

    The last thirteen National Board of Review Award winners for Best Director lost the Best Director Oscar. Well, seven of them were actually not even nominated.

    What about the NBR Best Film winners?

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    maxinho
    Joined:
    Jan 28th, 2019
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    #1204004394

    NBR is the kiss of death wbk.

    Yes, I really doubt the academy will nominated that many streaming films  for Best Picture and other main categories too. I will believe it when I see it.

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