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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 7)

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    Melvinezq
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    #1204006036

    I’m strongly considering removing The Father from my predictions, save for Anthony Hopkins and possibly Production Design. It has a frightful lack of momentum this season, and seems to be this year’s Still Alice, for example, rather than a serious multi-category player.

    It is so sad seeing a film with 87 score on Metacritic, adapted from the most successful play of the decade and by its masterful playwright, being snubbed. Yeah, shame on you, SPC!

    Although I still put it so high, I consider to place it lower, but still in my top 10 because even if the screeners aren’t distributed well, the narrative will be strong enough to attract AMPAS voters. Whenever they see it, it will be clear for them that this film is not a literal play adaptation (e.g. ONIM) or a play with some city background (e.g. MRBB). The most realistic thing is that this film will be respected by screenwriters (the another screenwriter is two-times Academy Award nominees) and I can’t see this film just nominated for screenplay. We rarely see a film snubbed for Picture nomination if nominated for screenplay and more than one technical awards.

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    puck05
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    #1204006221

    Valid point, but we did see 1917 become a top contender late last year after not having much buzz beforehand. The late release of The Father is still a problem, a bigger one than it was for 1917, but there’s a path to overcoming it.

    1917 was a war movie directed by Sam Mendes. The Father is a feature directorial debut.

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1204006379

    1917 was a war movie directed by Sam Mendes. The Father is a feature directorial debut.

    I’m well aware of the differences, I’m just saying, a late release became a major contender last time, it may happen again.

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    SN
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    #1204006566

    Don’t know this is related to this topic but I figured out that no NYCC Best Film winner EVER failed to get an above the line Oscar nom in their 85 year history.

    So given it was nominated for the USC Scripter, I really think First Cow will be nominated for Adapted Screenplay.

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    Stank83
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    #1204006862

    The comparisons are apt.
    1917 was just a flashy gimmicky war movie that banked all on the technical aspects to get noticed by the awards bodies. That’s why it could arrive late in the game.

    The Father is a small independent film adapted from a Tony winning play, it won’t get noticed as a flashy late breaker of the moment.

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    24fanatic
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    #1204006898

    Could Da 5 Bloods be the Phantom Thread of this year? It’s obviously not a perfect comparison, but if Lindo gets all the lead nominations people are expecting him to, he could be the sole representative of the film most places until it suddenly breaks into Picture/Director at the Oscars.

    I think Da 5 Bloods easily gets into Picture, Director, Actor and then below-the-line categories and is at least likely for Supporting Actor and writing.

    I low-key think it could go all the way and could be Spike Lee’s “The Departed moment.”

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    JackO
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    #1204006905

    I’m well aware of the differences, I’m just saying, a late release became a major contender last time, it may happen again.

    the father isnt a late release. its already been seen by critics and pundits. thats why it was so high to begin with. 1917 wasnt finished till it screened for industry.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1204006908

    IMDb is a joke

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    nevkm
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    #1204006983

    Animated, Documentary and International Feature Films eligible for the Oscars

    https://www.oscars.org/news/animated-documentary-and-international-feature-films-eligible-93rd-oscarsr-announced

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    gorman
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    #1204007022

    I think Da 5 Bloods easily gets into Picture, Director, Actor and then below-the-line categories and is at least likely for Supporting Actor and writing. I low-key think it could go all the way and could be Spike Lee’s “The Departed moment.”

    I’m not this confident in it, but I really don’t think it’s a reach to squeeze into like six or seven categories. Picture, Director, Actor, Editing, Cinematography, Score and Sound are totally in play for it. I think it will somewhat surprise people on nomination morning and get most of those 7 listed, but I’m not confident it will win any.

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    marty
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    #1204007132

    Don’t know this is related to this topic but I figured out that no NYCC Best Film winner EVER failed to get an above the line Oscar nom in their 85 year history.

    So given it was nominated for the USC Scripter, I really think First Cow will be nominated for Adapted Screenplay.

    I agree. The writers branch will nominate it. I’ve been predicting it for a long time, fits the bill of the lone screenplay nomination that had lots of critical support and acclaimed writing.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    wolfali
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    #1204007147

    IMDb is a joke

    What because Da 5 Bloods and Hillbilly Elegy flopped on there with audiences?

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Marcus.H
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    Oct 21st, 2017
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    #1204007668

    IMDb is a joke

    Because?

    Literally it is better and more accurate to our feelings than RT with those sometimes overrating scores, under the premise of getting 10,000+ votings.  Nearly all 7.7+ films (7+ for horror) are solidly great ones.

    Take this year for example:
    Ma Rainey RT98% (kidding me?) IMDB 7.2 (very low for drama)
    Mank RT83% IMDB 7.1 (very low for drama)
    PYW RT91% IMDB 7.5 (fine as a comedy/thriller)
    Soul RT96% IMDB 8.1 (highest 2020 contender)
    D5B RT92% (as good as Blackkklansman?) IMDB 6.5 (lowest Oscars contender in 20 years)

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini
    FYC: Soul & Judas and the Black Messiah

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    Marcus.H
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    #1204007676

    Valid point, but we did see 1917 become a top contender late last year after not having much buzz beforehand. The late release of The Father is still a problem, but there’s a path to overcoming it.

    I think The Father will be more like The Two Popes than like 1917, in term of its award path.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini
    FYC: Soul & Judas and the Black Messiah

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    JackO
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    Jun 2nd, 2011
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    #1204007717

    IMDb is a joke

    the typical crowd giving you hard time but you are right. imdb is just film twitter. i think it’s funny they are holding on to that after dismissing metacritic audience score!

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