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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 7)

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    Brae
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    #1203997239

    The more this race develops the less anything that isn’t Nomadland winning makes sense. I mean, Judas could be a potential contender but the HBO Max stuff will almost definitely prevent a win… the general population seems to have calmed down about it and are warming but the industry certainly isn’t. Chicago 7 is a possibility but I think it’ll go low on a lot of ballots from people wanting to prevent a win. We now know that PYW isn’t as divisive as people made up but most of that films buzz is (rightfully) centred on Mulligan rather than the film itself necessarily. Soul will do well on the preferential and is possibly in the best position to upset in my view, unless there is way more love for Ma Rainey than I’m aware of… Sound of Metal won’t go near a win but I can see it getting nominated.

    FYC:

    BEST ACTRESS — CAREY MULLIGAN
    BEST ACTOR — RIZ AHMED

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    gorman
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    #1203997274

    The more this race develops the less anything that isn’t Nomadland winning makes sense. I mean, Judas could be a potential contender but the HBO Max stuff will almost definitely prevent a win… the general population seems to have calmed down about it and are warming but the industry certainly isn’t. Chicago 7 is a possibility but I think it’ll go low on a lot of ballots from people wanting to prevent a win. We now know that PYW isn’t as divisive as people made up but most of that films buzz is (rightfully) centred on Mulligan rather than the film itself necessarily. Soul will do well on the preferential and is possibly in the best position to upset in my view, unless there is way more love for Ma Rainey than I’m aware of… Sound of Metal won’t go near a win but I can see it getting nominated.

    I think it’s too early to put Nomadland in a position like this. It’s certainly ahead, and has been mine and many others’ first place for a few months, essentially since Mank came out, but it could definitely be beaten. I’m with you for now on Chicago 7 falling at the last hurdle, but there’s a pretty good chance it gets big wins at the Globes, PGA and WGA. My guess would be that as this race develops Chicago 7 v Nomadland actually becomes quite a contentious race, and we have division between at least 2 leaders like in most recent years. We still need to hear more concrete things about Judas for me to claim that it will run either of those two close, but it has the potential to. I think we can only start to say Nomadland is running away with things if it dominates at the Globes and other early industry awards.

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    puck05
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    #1203997280

    What I’m excited about Nomadland’s potential victory is that it will pave the way for more independent and artistic films to be considered at the Oscars rather than straightforward historical movies.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203997667

    The dream would be for Nomadland to win Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay and Promising Young Woman original. (*insert Saoirse Ronan women gif*)

    I could really see it happening tbh.

    I can already see the headlines now: “At the 93rd Academy Awards, Chloe Zhao wins Best Picture for Nomadland and becomes the 2nd Female ever to win best Director, also winning Best Screenplay along with Emerald Fennel, making this the 1st year that the Screenplay awards are swept by women. In addition, this is the first year to have 3 African-American winners in the acting categories: Chadwick Boseman and Viola Davis for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, and Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah.”

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203997670

    I’m with you for now on Chicago 7 falling at the last hurdle, but there’s a pretty good chance it gets big wins at the Globes, PGA and WGA.

    I don’t think Chicago 7 will win PGA because they are made up of industry members who have a distaste for Netflix and don’t want to see them win, just like the Academy. It’s worth noting that Green Book beat Roma to win the PGA in 2018, making it the only Best Picture precursor where Roma lost to Green Book directly (they didn’t compete in the same categories at the Globes). Expect Nomadland to win PGA this year.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    Ruby Sparks
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    Sep 26th, 2017
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    #1203997716

    I still think Soul has a chance.

    FYC: Soul in ALL CATEGORIES

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    jonny
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    #1203997979

    After 92nd Academy Awards delivering some of the most entertaining nominees and one of the greatest winners ever, this year’s possible nominees don’t look great, I have seen mank and ma rainy and both were disappointing, especially mank that was incredibly boring. Nomadland, One Night in Miami and Sound of Metal all look great though, best of a bad bunch

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    gorman
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    #1203998037

    After 92nd Academy Awards delivering some of the most entertaining nominees and one of the greatest winners ever, this year’s possible nominees don’t look great, I have seen mank and ma rainy and both were disappointing, especially mank that was incredibly boring. Nomadland, One Night in Miami and Sound of Metal all look great though, best of a bad bunch

    If they’re the only 2 you’ve seen then you’ve chosen two of the drier and more bland movies to start with. There’s quite a lot of bold and beloved stuff out there still waiting for you that will probably change your mind. It’s a little too soon to say “best of a bad bunch” when you’ve only actually seen two of the bunch. I’m very excited to see Nomadland, Sound of Metal, Minari, Another Round, Judas and the Black Messiah and The Father, so there’s still plenty out there that convinces me this is still a really solid year, and that’s just from the Gold Derby Top 15.

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    jonny
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    #1203998043

    If they’re the only 2 you’ve seen then you’ve chosen two of the drier and more bland movies to start with. There’s quite a lot of bold and beloved stuff out there still waiting for you that will probably change your mind. It’s a little too soon to say “best of a bad bunch” when you’ve only actually seen two of the bunch. I’m very excited to see Nomadland, Sound of Metal, Minari, Another Round, Judas and the Black Messiah and The Father, so there’s still plenty out there that convinces me this is still a really solid year, and that’s just from the Gold Derby Top 15.

    Yeah you are probably right I should watch more before I write this year off, most movies I have watched this year have been a let down but there are still many I haven’t seen, Minari and Judas look like they have potential, going to watch one of them next

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203998045

    This is the worst year for film that I have ever seen (in the expanded Best Picture era).  I have not loved a single one. The best films are just decent or solid.  And people like Frances McDormand, Carey Mulligan and Viola Davis gave good performances, but I am not passionate about them like I am about the ones that the likes of Shira Haas, Emma Corrin and Amanda Peet gave on television in the same year.

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    gorman
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    #1203998048

    Yeah you are probably right I should watch more before I write this year off, most movies I have watched this year have been a let down but there are still many I haven’t seen, Minari and Judas look like they have potential, going to watch one of them next

    Nice, hope you enjoy. More so than most years this is one where I get people feeling a bit hopeless about the future of cinema and the films on offer, but looking at this years contenders and some other great non-contenders I still think this is one the most exciting bunch of ‘Oscar year’ films for a while, both on screen and behind the camera.

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    gorman
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    #1203998058

    This is the worst year for film that I have ever seen (in the expanded Best Picture era). There are a bunch of options that are decent, but I have not loved a single one. And people like Frances McDormand, Carey Mulligan and Viola Davis gave good performances, but I am not passionate about them like I am about the ones that the likes of Shira Haas, Emma Corrin and Amanda Peet gave on television in the same year.

    I still have a lot of films left on account of being in the UK which may be what’s keeping my optimism up for now, even though most/ maybe half of the ones I have seen have been pretty uninspiring. Obviously it makes sense given how much has been pushed and the promise of all the release holding out for next year but I still think given the circumstances this one has been generally pretty good. I still think we’ll get a better Picture line-up than we had in 2019.

    I also think there’s something to be said for not being able to see these films on the big screen in most cases. That kind of saps the life out of awards season and the general movie-watching experience a bit, for me at least.

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    wolfali
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    #1203998060

    I know this is the wrong thread but Riley reminded me. Justice for Amanda Peet’s should be Emmy winning performance in Dirty John!

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1203998065

    Posting this separately. With regards to this Oscar season I think I perhaps had watched more than I did last season (simply on the basis that I have had more time) and have had the opportunity to find some truly delightful indie gems I otherwise wouldn’t have found like The 40 Year Old Version and Babyteeth (I’d recommend them to anyone who hasn’t checked them out!) However the mainstream choices have been disappointing. The Trial of the Chicago 7 and Mank are considered in the BP odds to be top contenders but outside of Mark Rylance in the former and the performances of Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried in the latter I consider neither to be worthy of being in the Best Picture conversation. I’ll go even further to say that outside of Da 5 Bloods and The 40 Year Old Version I don’t think any of Netflix’s features should be in the conversation for a potential BP win (or maybe even nomination). Like Riley and many others on here I have found television this year to have been more worthy of recognition than film (The Crown, I May Destroy You and The Queen’s Gambit to name a few).

    Even with the performances I like this year I am nowhere near as passionate as I have been with other performances in other years (excluding Delroy Lindo and Carey Mulligan who do stand a decent chance of making my decade awards depending on how the decade turns out). I like the performances I’ve seen of big contenders like Vanessa Kirby, Amanda Seyfried and Aldis Hodge but the passion I feel for them is nothing in comparison towards the passion I’ve felt in recent years for Frances McDormand in 3BB or Renee Zellweger in Judy or Lupita Nyong’o, Amy Adams (Arrival), Natalie Portman (Jackie) or Rachel Weisz to name a few.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Butz
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    #1203998070

    I know I’m gonna be slaughtered and hung for this but out of all the movies from this season I have seen so far Mank and Promising Young Woman Pieces of a Woman would be the only ones I’d give a Picture nomination to.
    Still waiting for Nomadland, Minari, PYW, The Father or Judas. Other than these I have seen everything I’m currently predicting for the Big 5. What a disappointing year.

    FYC:

    Lead Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

    Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

    Supporting Actor: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    -----------------------------

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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