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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 7)

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    SN
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    #1203999717

    HFPA better not try it

    Just wait until they give everything to Shitcago 7 🤢🤢

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    wolfali
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    #1203999721

    It’s really a possibility though. One Night In Miami… does seem like a very plausible choice. It really doesn’t have any haters and it’s not divisive.

    But does anyone really care about it? I’m a massive fan of it but it feels like another If Beale Street Could Talk/A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood in the sense it starts off as a big contender at festivals but it loses steam and has less passion than other contenders and just gets in a few categories here and there.

    I predict that it will just miss out on a Picture nomination.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Riley Chow
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    #1203999852

    Last year’s Best Picture race was packed full of big movies, most with big budgets that grossed hundreds of millions of dollars because they were hits with general audiences as well as critics.  They were movies that everyone loved, independent of awards season (aside from Jojo Rabbit and Parasite, which needed that boost).

    I feel like people want to treat this year like it is last year, but the difference is that nobody has seen these movies and they are not even loved by the people who have seen them.  Mank is supposed to be this season’s The Irishman, except the latter has ten times as many ratings on IMDb, where it rates a solid 7.9 instead of an unremarkable 7.1 like Mank.  Almost all of last year’s Best Picture nominees rate better on IMDb than any of this year’s contenders, which have hardly any ratings anyway.  This year’s contenders lack the star power and budgets to which we have grown accustomed recently, plus the slate this year is especially depressing for whatever reason.  This will be the first year in over a decade that none of the Globe comedy nominees is nominated for Best Picture.  And this happens to be a year when people could really use a comedy.

    So I am thinking that voters are going to be apathetic about the slate of contenders.  Not many of them are films that they would watch on their own anyway and hardly any of them have great buzz. I am bullish on Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal because people actually like them. These movies were not initially in the predictions centre and they are not movies that anyone had plans to watch, but people are watching now, because the favourable responses are manifesting in word of mouth, which ultimately translates to visibility.

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    DanC
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    #1203999870

    Last year’s Best Picture race was packed full of big movies, most with big budgets that grossed hundreds of millions of dollars because they were hits with general audiences as well as critics. They were movies that everyone loved, independent of awards season (aside from Jojo Rabbit and Parasite, which needed that boost).

    So I am thinking that voters are going to be apathetic about the slate of contenders. Not many of them are films that they would watch on their own anyway and hardly any of them have great buzz. I am bullish on Promising Young Woman and Sound of Metal because people actually like them. These movies were not initially in the predictions centre and they are not movies that anyone had plans to watch, but people are watching now, because the favourable responses are manifesting in word of mouth, which ultimately translates to visibility.

    This is also how Soul gets a nomination.

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    Heptapod
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    #1203999976

    Full predictions round two

    MANK (12) – Picture, Director, S Actress, O Screenplay, Score, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Makeup, Production, Sound, Visual
    JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH (7) – Picture, Director, S Actor, S Actress, O Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing
    MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM (7) – Picture, Actor, Actress, S Actor, A Screenplay, Costumes, Makeup
    NOMADLAND (6) – Picture, Director, Actress, A Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing
    THE FATHER (5) – Picture, Actor, Supp Actress, A Screenplay, Editing
    ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI (5) – Picture, Director, S Actor, A Screenplay, Song
    SOUL (5) – Picture, O Screenplay, Score, Sound, Animated
    THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 (5) – Picture, S Actor, O Screenplay, Costumes, Editing
    DA 5 BLOODS (4) – Actor, Score, Cinematography, Sound
    PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (4) – Picture, Director, Actress, O Screenplay
    BIRDS OF PREY (3) – Makeup, Production, Visual
    EMMA (3) – Costumes, Makeup, Production
    NEWS OF THE WORLD (3) – Score, Cinematography, Production
    TENET (3) – Score, Sound, Visual
    ALL IN: THE FIGHT FOR DEMOCRACY (2) – Song, Documentary
    BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM (2) – S Actress, A Screenplay
    MALCOLM & MARIE (2) – Actor, Actress
    THE MIDNIGHT SKY (2) – Production, Visual
    ONWARD (2) – Song, Animated
    PIECES OF A WOMAN (2) – Actress, S Actress
    SOUND OF METAL (2) – Actor, Sound
    HILLBILLY ELEGY (1) – Makeup
    THE INVISIBLE MAN (1) – Visual
    THE LIFE AHEAD (1) – Song
    MISS AMERICANA (1) – Song
    ON THE ROCKS (1) – S Actor
    THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY (1) – Costumes

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    Heptapod
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    #1203999982

    And winners.

    Is it weird to have such a wide net of distribution? With such few blockbusters coming out this year, I just don’t see a Gravity type situation where something can take a lot of techs at once.

    NOMADLAND – Picture, Director, A Screenplay, Cinematography
    MANK – S Actress, Score, Production
    EMMA – Costumes
    HILLBILLY ELEGY – Makeup
    JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH – S Actor
    MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM – Actor
    MALCOLM & MARIE – Actress
    ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI – Song
    PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN – O Screenplay
    SOUL – Animated
    SOUND OF METAL – Sound
    TENET – Visual
    THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 – Editing

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    wolfali
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    #1204000223

    BIRDS OF PREY (3) – Makeup, Production, Visual

    If this site and WB’s FYC site are to be believed then Birds of Prey has not been submitted for the Oscars.

    http://www.richiesolomon.com/screeners/

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    wolfali
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    #1204000303

    So apart from The Post more or less each of the films nominated for Best Picture since 2017 had an IMDB score of 7.3 or higher. Of course we’re in a strange year so anything can happen but out of all the films released this year (that are in the predictions centre) only the following have scores like that:

    1. Soul – 8.1
    2. Another Round – 7.8
    2. Sound of Metal – 7.8
    2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 – 7.8
    5. Promising Young Woman – 7.5
    5. Tenet – 7.5
    7. Never Rarely Sometimes Always – 7.4
    7. Palm Springs – 7.4
    7. Driveways – 7.4
    10. One Night in Miami – 7.3

    Driveways and Tenet obviously aren’t getting nominated (although how funny would it be if Tenet became the film that gets nominated for tech + Picture and nothing else this year) and neither is Palm Springs. The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a lock and Promising Young Woman, One Night in Miami, Soul and Sound of Metal are considered in the running here by everyone (whether you think they have a chance at winning or not).

    But I wonder if we’re underestimating the potential of Another Round or Never Rarely Sometimes Always being on the brink.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    SN
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    #1204000325

    If this site and WB’s FYC site are to be believed then Birds of Prey has not been submitted for the Oscars.

    http://www.richiesolomon.com/screeners/

    I don’t think that does affect its chances in tech categories.

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    Liebchen
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    #1204000338

    This is indeed one of the most uninteresting year for film in recent memory. I do not think the pandemic has that much weight into the offer’s quality, rather the way we consume and subsequently enjoy films, then we still have the question of those that were delayed. From my personal experience, streaming has been my predilection and most of the films we’ve got were past principal photography phase when the pandemic hit us around March 2020. I was able to stream a lot of stuff but in the scheme of things, I think we were in for a disappointing year regardless of Covid-19. Although being forced to stay home promptly increased that feeling literally and figuratively.

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    DaKardii
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    #1204000618

    END OF WEEK 20 PREDICTIONS

    Nomadland
    The Trial of the Chicago 7
    One Night in Miami
    News of the World
    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Mank
    Minari
    The Father
    Da 5 Bloods
    Promising Young Woman

     

    Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
    Regina King (One Night in Miami)
    David Fincher (Mank)
    George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
    Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

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    Miss
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    #1204000846

    AFI FYI

    DA 5 BLOODS
    JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
    MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
    MANK
    MINARI
    NOMADLAND
    ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…
    SOUL
    SOUND OF METAL
    THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7

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    gorman
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    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1204000946

    1. Nomadland

    2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

    3. Judas and the Black Messiah

    4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    5. Minari

    6. Mank

    7. The Father

    8. Soul

    9. Promising Young Woman

    10. Da 5 Bloods

    Next up: Sound of Metal, One Night in Miami

    1. Chloe Zhao

    2. David Fincher

    3. Shaka King

    4. Lee Isaac Chung

    5. Spike Lee

    Next up: Aaron Sorkin, Thomas Vinterberg, Emerald Fennell

    Increasingly confident that the Picture line-up will be limited to some variation of those 12 listed. The only other ones I’d really give an outside chance are News of the World and Another Round. No science to leaving SOM or ONIM out really, interchangeable with any of my 8-10.

    Took Sorkin out in Director because I remain unconvinced that directors will jump on his work in any passionate way. It seems like Green Book in that regard – Sorkin can miss out like Farrelly without the film being dented too much because the direction is just too tame. I think Lee has a lot of respect amongst directors at this point, and Chung seems to be heading up the ranks. King I think makes it on account of rising expectations around Judas – wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up as Zhao’s main/ only competition.

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    gorman
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    #1204000989

    But I wonder if we’re underestimating the potential of Another Round or Never Rarely Sometimes Always being on the brink.

    I think Another Round is possible. I am yet to see it, and will remedy that soon, but the sense I get is that it is a popular crowd-pleaser in a year with precious few of those on offer, and it will be visible because everyone will watch it for International Film voting. I don’t think there’s any real aversion to International contenders getting into Picture any year, and there definitely won’t be when the options are as slim as this year. I could see it having something of a response like Cold War, which was beloved enough to break out of International Film to above the line, to many people’s surprise, and in a thinner year with fewer populist choices like 2021 probably would’ve challenge for a Picture nod.

    I think NRSA’s style and very indie sensibility will alienate too many voters, although that audience score is much higher that I expected and it is a beautiful film which handles an important theme really well, so there’s a slim chance I guess.

    It’s also worth saying that that list doesn’t account for The Father, Minari, Nomadland and Judas which I’m 99% certain will all come in above 7.3 once they release, so I don’t think this year will veer from the norm in any major way, aside from Mank maybe getting in with slightly lower.

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    wolfali
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    #1204001180

    It is also worth mentioning with Another Round that in spite of a poor distributor it has 31.5k votes on IMDB so visibility isn’t an issue.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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