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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)

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    Philip
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    #1204055581

    None.

    That’s why I am confused. Obviously it is in play for Original Screenplay, a fight with Promising Young Woman, I would think atm, but I can’t see what other category it can be competitive in.

    #12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.

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    wolfali
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    Editing? I don’t know.

    Sacha Baron Cohen might (unfortunately) stand a chance if he wins the Globe but  if he doesn’t then I honestly cannot see what else it has a chance at winning. Imo if it wins Motion Picture – Drama at the Globes it wins for SBC too. At the moment I am not predicting it to win the Globe.

    I do have a weird feeling that S. Actor ends up being similar to Actor in 2018 where just like Gary Oldman the actors want to give it to SBC because they think “it’s his time” even though Daniel Kaluuya has an undeniable transformative performance just like Daniel Day-Lewis. I hope I’m wrong.

    Nomadland on the other hand is locked for Directing and I will be very shocked if it doesn’t walk home with cinematography at this point. Since 2012 each of the winners have been either matched up with directing or were Roger Deakins.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Philip
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    Editing? I don’t know.

    Sacha Baron Cohen might (unfortunately) stand a chance if he wins the Globe but if he doesn’t then I honestly cannot see what else it has a chance at winning. Imo if it wins Motion Picture – Drama at the Globes it wins for SBC too. At the moment I am not predicting it to win the Globe.

    I do have a weird feeling that S. Actor ends up being similar to Actor in 2018 where just like Gary Oldman the actors want to give it to SBC because they think “it’s his time” even though Daniel Kaluuya has an undeniable transformative performance just like Daniel Day-Lewis. I hope I’m wrong.

    Nomadland on the other hand is locked for Directing and I will be very shocked if it doesn’t walk home with cinematography at this point. Since 2012 each of the winners have been either matched up with directing or were Roger Deakins.

    SBC time? For what? Half the time he does the awful characters from his TV show. I am so over him. I watched borat last night because of the supporting actress and it was awful, how people want that that win awards is beyond me.

    #12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.

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    John Berchmans
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    Praying for Chicago 7 go home empty handed.

    I want it to win Editing, but not Original Screenplay.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    John Berchmans
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    What category is Chicago 7 a lock for?

    Editing, probably. Flashiest editing always wins.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    wolfali
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    It doesn’t mean anything for their Oscar chances but it is interesting nonetheless how well both Judas and the Black Messiah and <i>Promising Young Woman </i>have done at the international and domestic box office in spite of the pandemic. I wonder if they will get a boost when they’re released when cinemas reopen in Europe around April/May-ish (with the easing of restrictions due to the increase in vaccinations) like Jojo Rabbit and Parasite did after their Oscar wins and actually have a strong normal box office lmao.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    SN
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    #1204055660

    Chicago 7 is no lock in Editing. Unless it wins Best Picture or gets nominated for Sound, it’s just not winning.

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    SN
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    It doesn’t mean anything for their Oscar chances but it is interesting nonetheless how well both Judas and the Black Messiah and <i>Promising Young Woman </i>have done at the international and domestic box office in spite of the pandemic. I wonder if they will get a boost when they’re released when cinemas reopen in Europe around April/May-ish (with the easing of restrictions due to the increase in vaccinations) like Jojo Rabbit and Parasite did after their Oscar wins and actually have a strong box office lmao.

    I was a bit disappointed by the Judas opening tbh and it had a sizable drop in the second weekend due to the simultaneous HBO Max release, but with an A cinemascore and 96% audience RT, I think it’ll have good legs in the coming weeks, specially when nominations arrive.

    PYW is having great legs after a mild opening. $5 million is not a bad result for a movie like this in the middle of a pandemic. I was expecting less.

    It’s curious that A24 and Searchlight are hiding Minari and Nomadland numbers. I think they’re afraid that could hurt their chances. Sony will probably follow suit with The Father.

    One of the best parts of the awards season was looking at the box office of the nominees. I hope we can have that back next year.

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    wolfali
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    Absolutely agree SN!

    I think what is interesting about <i>Promising Young Woman </i>and Judas is that neither Carey Mulligan or Daniel Kaluuya are big household names yet their films have done so well (imo) at the US box office during the pandemic. I can only imagine how well they’d have done if Covid hadn’t happened. They’re much bigger in Europe than they are in the US so if they win their Oscars in April (when I think cinemas will start to reopen and restrictions will ease due to vaccinations) I think both films will have strong box office returns. I wouldn’t be surprised if a bulk of their International box office comes from the UK just like it was the case with <i>David Copperfield</i>.

    I also am interested to see what will happen with the box office next year. Especially when we have so many of those expensive, starry studio films that skipped this year like Last Night in SoHo, Respect and Nightmare Alley etc in the mix..

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Riley Chow
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    Flashy as the editing might have actually been, The Trial of the Chicago 7 does not scream editing on paper and I can see that holding it back.  We tend to see the award go to nominees with things like war and fast cars that are more obviously edited from their premises.  Gold Derby does this almost every year, anointing a frontrunner based on a combination of editing merit and Best Picture strength.  The IrishmanRomaLa La Land and Boyhood all led the editing odds until nominations were announced.  This is the kind of editing that the critics and Gold Derby like, but it is not what the academy likes.

    This is not a sweep category; the academy just likes its winners fast and loud.  Critics Choice tries to predict the Oscars and usually does, but this is probably their worst category, seeing as they have awarded an Oscar loser eight of the category’s eleven years.  Intricate as the editing in The Trial of the Chicago 7 might actually be, this is still a movie about a court case.  We can talk if it wins BAFTA.  (To be fair though, we are missing our usual blockbuster and pulpy options because of pandemic delays, so there might be more of a window here than normal.  And also, another Aaron Sorkin movie has already been an outlier.)

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    Philip
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    Flashy as the editing might have actually been, The Trial of the Chicago 7 does not scream editing on paper and I can see that holding it back. We tend to see the award go to nominees with things like war and fast cars that are more obviously edited from their premises. Gold Derby does this almost every year, anointing a frontrunner based on a combination of editing merit and Best Picture strength. The Irishman, Roma, La La Land and Boyhood all led the editing odds until nominations were announced. This is the kind of editing that the critics and Gold Derby like, but it is not what the academy likes.

    This is not a sweep category; the academy just likes its winners fast and loud. Critics Choice tries to predict the Oscars and usually does, but this is probably their worst category, seeing as they have awarded an Oscar loser eight of the category’s eleven years. Intricate as the editing in The Trial of the Chicago 7 might actually be, this is still a movie about a court case. We can talk if it wins BAFTA. To be fair though, we are missing our usual blockbuster and pulpy options because of pandemic delays, so there might be more of a window here than normal. And also, another Aaron Sorkin movie has already been an outlier.)(

    Could we all be underestimating Tenant then?

    #12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.

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    Riley Chow
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    I do not see it getting nominated.  That movie was a mess and these people snubbed Inception, a Best Picture nominee.

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    SN
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    Flashy as the editing might have actually been, The Trial of the Chicago 7 does not scream editing on paper and I can see that holding it back. We tend to see the award go to nominees with things like war and fast cars that are more obviously edited from their premises. Gold Derby does this almost every year, anointing a frontrunner based on a combination of editing merit and Best Picture strength. The Irishman, Roma, La La Land and Boyhood all led the editing odds until nominations were announced. This is the kind of editing that the critics and Gold Derby like, but it is not what the academy likes.

    This is not a sweep category; the academy just likes its winners fast and loud. Critics Choice tries to predict the Oscars and usually does, but this is probably their worst category, seeing as they have awarded an Oscar loser eight of the category’s eleven years. Intricate as the editing in The Trial of the Chicago 7 might actually be, this is still a movie about a court case. We can talk if it wins BAFTA. (To be fair though, we are missing our usual blockbuster and pulpy options because of pandemic delays, so there might be more of a window here than normal. And also, another Aaron Sorkin movie has already been an outlier.)

    Agree with every word you said.

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    wolfali
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    Flashy as the editing might have actually been, The Trial of the Chicago 7 does not scream editing on paper and I can see that holding it back. We tend to see the award go to nominees with things like war and fast cars that are more obviously edited from their premises. Gold Derby does this almost every year, anointing a frontrunner based on a combination of editing merit and Best Picture strength. The Irishman, Roma, La La Land and Boyhood all led the editing odds until nominations were announced. This is the kind of editing that the critics and Gold Derby like, but it is not what the academy likes. This is not a sweep category; the academy just likes its winners fast and loud. Critics Choice tries to predict the Oscars and usually does, but this is probably their worst category, seeing as they have awarded an Oscar loser eight of the category’s eleven years. Intricate as the editing in The Trial of the Chicago 7 might actually be, this is still a movie about a court case. We can talk if it wins BAFTA. (To be fair though, we are missing our usual blockbuster and pulpy options because of pandemic delays, so there might be more of a window here than normal. And also, another Aaron Sorkin movie has already been an outlier.)

    Sound of Metal then? Still haven’t seen it but isn’t it the only film that looks like it can continue the trend of Sound nominee + Editing winner? It also seems like it could be a Whiplash type winner.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Philip
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    I do not see it getting nominated. That movie was a mess and these people snubbed Inception, a Best Picture nominee.

    Hmm, interesting. Cause that is like the big “blockbuster” of the season. Maybe it does sneak in. I’m interested to see if it makes the cut at BAFTA and the guild. March 8th and 9th shall be interesting.

    #12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.

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