Home Forums Movies Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)

Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)

CREATE A NEW TOPIC
CREATE A NEW POLL
Viewing 15 posts - 286 through 300 (of 520 total)
Created
2 months ago
Last Reply
1 month ago
519
replies
27356
views
89
users
wolfali
60
SN
51
JackO
32
  • Profile picture
    Marcus.H
    Joined:
    Oct 21st, 2017
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204081135

    I think (unfortunately) Paul Greengrass and Florian Zeller will grab that 5th spot; every year we always have that kind of nomination that sneaks in. I don’t think both will, but at least one forsure. Other less likely alternatives are Shaka and Vintenberg I guess.

    Exactly and I’m still not quite sure who will that be besides Zhao, Fincher, Sorkin, and Chung.  The 3-female-director thing doesn’t matter since the winner is already gonna be a woman.

     

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

    Profile picture
    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204081208

    Yeah I am not buying Sorkin at all because I cannot see how a branch that is so cliquey at the type of people they nominate wanting to nominate someone who is one of the people in the world most famous for being a screenwriter in directing. That doesn’t mean Chicago 7 can’t win but Sorkin in directing feels like an Argo type situation to me (of course Sorkin has nowhere near the buzz that Affleck had).

    Partly why I am particularly bullish about King and Fennell is that after the Globes (who are the least friendly to female directors) nominated them along with Zhao, it’s going to look bad on the directors branch if they don’t nominate them.

    King faces more of a similar problem to Sorkin than Fennell does but what really helps King here is that a nomination for her would be history making and she is helped by having neither acted in the film or directed it. Her only problem is that <i>One Night in Miami </i>won’t be a big Picture contender (I think it’s bubbling around 8th to 11th place).

    Fennell is helped by the fact that she’s a rising star in the industry, has been praised by several directors, her film is an auteur piece and she will likely get European and British bloc support. She also could very well win the DGA award for First Feature.

    But really what I think helps them both is that not only do they have a rooting factor for them because of the history they’d be making with the nominations that I think will help them but also they have received a lot of critical and industry praise for their work on their films in spite of this being their first features (especially Fennell). Sorkin’s direction isn’t an aspect of his film that has been really praised so much (it’s more the screenplay and performances).

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

    Profile picture
    Monsoon 🌊
    Joined:
    Aug 11th, 2020
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204082319

    Florian Zeller or Paul Greengrass may very well pop up in Best Director. The Father & News of the World feel like films that will appeal to older Oscar voters. I wouldn’t be surprised if either of those movies over perform nomination morning.

    👑Cicely Tyson (1924-2021)
    👑Mary Wilson (1944-2021)

    Profile picture
    JackO
    Joined:
    Jun 2nd, 2011
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204082567

    Florian Zeller or Paul Greengrass may very well pop up in Best Director. The Father & News of the World feel like films that will appeal to older Oscar voters. I wouldn’t be surprised if either of those movies over perform nomination morning.

    The appeal to older voters of Snooze of the World seems to be made up from pundits. I have seen no evidence of that. If it hits PGA, I’ll concede but I doubt that happens. The Father has no buzz. Hopkins isnt winning. I thought it was a threat after I saw it but it is just another flop.

    Profile picture
    John Berchmans
    Joined:
    Jan 22nd, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204082626

    Judas and the Black Messiah is absolutely phenomenal. It’s a close 2nd to Nomadland for my favorite film of both the year and the awards season, and between those two films, 2021 is shaping up to be just as great a year for film as 2019 was.

    I’ve been feeling for a long time that American political films need to have more complicated political messages. It often feels like Directors want us to have a specific opinion about their films and not to come up with one ourselves. Judas and the Black Messiah completely does away with that by honestly presenting both the good and bad details of Fred Hampton and the Black Panther Party. It was illuminating for me to learn that the Black Panthers were not just a black power organization that white people were scared would start a race war, but a socialist, borderline communist organization that straight-up wanted to overthrow the government and dismantle the police and replace it with their own socialist system. We see throughout the film this back-and-forth exchange of extremity, as an action from the Black Panther Party results in an equal and opposite reaction from the police, until the whole situation spirals out of control. It’s extremely bold of Shaka King to present his subjects so honestly, and the film is all the better for it. Honestly, I kind of wish Aaron Sorkin had done this now for The Trial of the Chicago 7: now I understand why you guys were upset with that film.

    All of the performances in this film were excellent. Daniel Kaluuya of course does a fantastic job as Fred Hampton: he deserves all of the awards wins that are coming his way. One of the things I love about this script is that Fred Hampton gets a lot of loud moments, but also a lot of much quieter moments where we get to see a completely different side of his character, and Kaluuya nails them both. Lakeith Stanfield has an incredibly difficult job to do with William O’Neal: he has to make his character, which is the true protagonist of the film, a character compelling enough to hold his own against Kaluuya’s powerhouse performance, all while having nothing but words on a sheet of paper to go off of. Despite this, he does as great a job, if not better than Kaluuya does. This is easily his best performance yet. I especially love the scene near the end of the film, where he is absolutely terrified and trembling with fear as he gives Fred Hampton the cup, and later when he approaches Roy Mitchell, that cornered sense of fear that he gives. Dominique Fishback has a much smaller and more subtle role than I expected, but she does great with the material she is given, especially at the very end of the film. But the two unexpected standouts for me were Jesse Plemons as Roy Mitchell and Martin Sheen as J. Edgar Hoover. There’s a very interesting dynamic that Mitchell has with O’Neal and Hoover: when he’s with O’Neal, he acts like he’s the boss and everything that’s happening is something he wants. But when he’s with Hoover, we see the same sense of helplessness that O’Neal displays, as Hoover pushes and forces Mitchell to perform actions that are increasingly morally corrupt. In many ways, they’re one and the same. This dynamic gives Mitchell so much more complexity as a character, and makes Hoover a terrifying force. Really, the whole cast of this film does a great job: it’s a shame that only Kaluuya is likely to receive significant attention from the industry.

    The film is also incredibly well made. The Cinematography is excellent and resembles many of the films in which it is set: the ’60s. I love the shots in particular during the scene of Fred Hampton’s rally after he’s out of prison: the way it cuts back and forth between so many close-up and medium shots of O’Neal, Hampton, Johnson, and Mitchell without disrupting the flow of the speech is great. Speaking of which, the editing in this film is a particular standout. There’s a ton of great crosscutting sequences, especially the one where Fred Hampton is discussing having his baby with Deborah Johnson while Jake WInters is engaged with the police. The sound and score of the film were also unexpectedly great. Two sequences that stand out in particular were a sound bridge where Fred Hampton’s speech on the streets of Chicago cuts seamlessly back to him talking to his comrades in the classroom, and the first meeting between the Black Panthers and the rival gang, where the music plays in very low timbres and slowly builds as the tension rises, and then releases right as the conflict resolves itself.

    Overall this is a great film, particularly enhanced by it’s performance’s craft, and the complexity of the story, and I hope it continues to do well as this year’s late-breaker.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Dominique Fishback
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

    Profile picture
    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204082647

    The Father has no buzz. Hopkins isnt winning. I thought it was a threat after I saw it but it is just another flop.

    The hypocrisy when you call every film that isn’t Razziebilly Elegy a flop.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

    Profile picture
    George Ehret
    Joined:
    Sep 3rd, 2019
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204082652

    Anyone willing to predict Thomas Vinterberg to pull a Pawel Pawlikowski?

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

    Profile picture
    George Ehret
    Joined:
    Sep 3rd, 2019
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204082661

    King faces more of a similar problem to Sorkin than Fennell does but what really helps King here is that a nomination for her would be history making and she is helped by having neither acted in the film or directed it. Her only problem is that <i>One Night in Miami </i>won’t be a big Picture contender (I think it’s bubbling around 8th to 11th place).

    Sure, but this is the branch that snubbed Bradley Cooper, who directed one of the highest-grossing movies of the year and arguably the Best Picture frontrunner, for Pawel Pawlikowski, someone who first of all isn’t well known in the States and second has a name most voters can’t even pronounce. They’re by far the snobbiest branch in the entire Academy

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

    Profile picture
    George Ehret
    Joined:
    Sep 3rd, 2019
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204082668

    Florian Zeller or Paul Greengrass may very well pop up in Best Director. The Father & News of the World feel like films that will appeal to older Oscar voters. I wouldn’t be surprised if either of those movies over perform nomination morning.

    The Father’s campaign hasn’t been great, so that concerns me a little bit

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

    Profile picture
    John Berchmans
    Joined:
    Jan 22nd, 2018
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204082975

    I was predicting Zeller for a while but with how much the father is underperforming I doubt he gets anything outside of BAFTA.

    Greengrass seems likely to be that one Director who gets a nom at DGA but not at the Oscars (like Taika last year).

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Dominique Fishback
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

    Profile picture
    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204083108

    I doubt Vinterbeg makes it in directing. At least Pawlikowski’s Cold War was a top contender for best cinematography. While Vinterbeg couldn’t make it in the Oscars for his previous film, The Hunt, which won the Palm d’or.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

    Profile picture
    George Ehret
    Joined:
    Sep 3rd, 2019
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204083113

    I doubt Vinterbeg makes it in directing. At least Pawlikowski’s Cold War was a top contender for best cinematography. While Vinterbeg couldn’t make it in the Oscars for his previous film, The Hunt, which won the Palm d’or.

    I think Mads Mikkelsen might be in the conversation for Actor, tho. Wouldn’t be surprised if he pulls a Javier Bardem in Buitiful and gets in after only getting BAFTA. But this is also me going bold because I don’t have either Aaron Sorkin or Regina King in my top 5 and I need to pick someone who could realistically get nominated somewhere else. I know Florian would be the obvious pick for that, but this is a NGNG I guess

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

    Profile picture
    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204083165

    I think Florian Zeller will be nominated for BAFTA.

    Profile picture
    George Ehret
    Joined:
    Sep 3rd, 2019
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204083169

    True, but I’m feeling gutsy today

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

    Profile picture
    Dr. Manhattan
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2015
    Topics:
    Posts:
    #1204083190

    I doubt Vinterbeg makes it in directing. At least Pawlikowski’s Cold War was a top contender for best cinematography. While Vinterbeg couldn’t make it in the Oscars for his previous film, The Hunt, which won the Palm d’or.

    The Hunt won the Palme d’Or? When?

Viewing 15 posts - 286 through 300 (of 520 total)

The topic ‘Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)’ is closed to new replies.

Similar Topics
wilfred... - Apr 15, 2021
Movies
mateil - Apr 15, 2021
Movies
restles... - Apr 15, 2021
Movies