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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)

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    wolfali
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    #1204083233

    with how much the father is underperforming

    Underperforming?

    First it was this film was getting snubbed everywhere apart from Actor and S. Actress and now it’s gotten four Golden Globe nominations, eight BAFTA long-list mentions, 4 AACTA noms including in Picture (the only non Australian film to have been nominated in Picture by AACTA and go on to miss the nomination was Carol), 2 SAG nominations (in spite of the film being a high brow British film that’s a late release) and the only films that have more total industry + critics wins than it in Adapted Screenplay are I’m Thinking of Ending Things and Nomadland.

    I’m not necessarily saying the campaign has been great for it from Sony Pictures Classics or that it will get into Director but this idea of The Father “under-performing” is getting tiresome now.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    George Ehret
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    No Critics’ Choice Picture nomination or Contemporary ADG nomination is concerning

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    SN
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    The Father missed CC and it’s underperforming at the guilds so far. Don’t be surprised if it misses PGA. I think it could overcome that but it’s not wrong to say The Father is underperforming.

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    wolfali
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    #1204083249

    No Critics’ Choice Picture nomination or Contemporary ADG nomination is concerning

    I actually didn’t know it was snubbed at ADG lol. Thanks for telling me though. Yeah I would say that is concerning but more for its chances in Production Design than anywhere else.

    I would argue that it’s Critics Choice snub in Picture was due to its low visibility amongst critics (which isn’t really so much the case with the industry). It’s a similar line of thinking I have behind why Judas and the Black Messiah missed Picture there.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    George Ehret
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    I actually didn’t know it was snubbed at ADG lol. Thanks for telling me though. Yeah I would say that is concerning but more for its chances in Production Design than anywhere else. I would argue that it’s Critics Choice snub in Picture was due to its low visibility amongst critics (which isn’t really so much the case with the industry). It’s a similar line of thinking I have behind why Judas and the Black Messiah missed Picture there.

    OK, but Little Women didn’t miss CC and neither did The Revenant, Beale Street, or Django. I know Beale Street didn’t make it at the end, but it did get in most places. It’s not a death nail for late breakers, but the campaign has to be strong

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    JV
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    PGA predictions:

    1. Nomadland (AFI + NBR)
    2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (SAG + WGA + AFI)
    3. Minari (SAG + AFI + NBR)
    4. Mank (AFI)
    5. Promising Young Woman (WGA + NBR)
    6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (AFI + WGA + NBR + SAG)
    7. News of the World (NBR + WGA)
    8. One Night in Miami (AFI + NBR + WGA + SAG)
    9. Judas and the Black Messiah (AFI + WGA)
    10. Soul/Da 5 Bloods/Sound of Metal

    If we look back at surprising picks we have:

    Nightcrawler  (AFI + NBR + WGA)

    Wonder Woman (AFI)

    Crazy Rich Asians (SAG + NBR)

    A Quiet Place (AFI + NBR + WGA)

    The Big Sick (SAG + AFI + WGA)

    So, right now Soul has AFI + NBR. Da 5 Bloods has SAG + AFI + NBR. Sound of Metal has AFI + NBR + WGA. One of those will be the 10th nominee.

    I don’t believe in The Father here anymore, but I do believe that it will be nominated for Best Picture. The acting branch will help.

     

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    crabbie
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    #1204083320

    The Hunt won the Palme d’Or? When?

    I was so sure the film won the award since it was a masterpiece lol. But yea it didn’t Mads did win for Best Actor at Cannes though.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Dr. Manhattan
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    I really can’t see Regina King getting nominated for this. In fact, I believe Aaron Sorkin (who I’m also predicting to get snubbed) has a greater chance to make the final five than King does. Not only would King have to overcome the directors’ branch’s bias against actor-directors (although King admittedly benefits from the fact that she isn’t in the film), One Night in Miami is just too stage-like for her to get nominated. Even as someone who liked the film a lot, I will admit that King’s mise-en-scène and utilization of cinematic techniques are substandard, although she does direct the ensemble cast very well. We’ve seen stuff like Marriage Story, Green Book, A Star is Born, and Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri in recent years miss a nomination for this award and I would say that all of those films are more cinematic than One Night in Miami. The last film to get nominated for Best Director that I would say is as uncinematic as One Night in Miami would be Spotlight and that had the benefit of being a Best Picture heavyweight (and eventual winner) during that race, which One Night in Miami doesn’t have this time. Additionally, not only does the directors’ branch seem to discriminate against actor-directors, there has never been an Oscar-winning actor or actress to have been nominated for Best Director after they had won their Oscar. This doesn’t necessarily kill King’s chances, but when seen holistically, it does appear that King is too weak of a contender to overcome that.

    Zhao and Fincher are locks. Other than those two, though, I’m not willing to call anyone a lock until BAFTA and DGA unveil the nominations next week. However, I think Emerald Fennell is a robust contender and a near-lock for a nomination. I don’t think we’ll be seeing any backlash if this directors’ branch nominates two women in the category, which will be unprecedented, of which one (that too a WOC) will inevitably win come Oscar night. Even if there is backlash, it’s not like the directors’ branch will give a crud about that.

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    The Girls' Room
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    #1204083411

    John, I just read your review of Judas and the Black Messiah. So glad you loved it! It really is fantastic, and I agree that it’s a shame it’s being overlooked in so many categories where it is absolutely deserving. Judas and Nomadland for the sweep.

    watch I May Destroy You

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    JV
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    OK, but Little Women didn’t miss CC and neither did The Revenant, Beale Street, or Django. I know Beale Street didn’t make it at the end, but it did get in most places. It’s not a death nail for late breakers, but the campaign has to be strong

    The critics got angry because SPC didn’t send them screeners. This is probably the reason it missed Picture and Supporting Actress at London Film Critics Circle as well.

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    kaziz
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    #1204083727

    One Night in Miami is far more likely to miss in Best Picture than it is in Best Director. That was one of the surprise things for me this whole cycle—it was Regina King’s direction driving up the movie’s chances of being nominated for BP, not the other way round.

    I still don’t understand how people seem to think Emerald Fennell is better placed to get a nod than Regina King. Films like PYW (niche, black comedy, indie-like films) almost always get screenplay nods instead of director nods.

    But this whole thing seems to be driven by who has the least passion. It’s not Nomadland. It’s not Promising Young Woman. It’s not One Night in Miami. It’s not Minari. It’s not even Trial of the Chicago 7, which really doesn’t deserve it.

    It’s Mank. They won’t be intentionally snubbing David Fincher. But if Lee Isaac Chung sneaks in, I’m betting it’ll be because Fincher lacks the #1 votes, not anybody else. And it’ll be a BIG DEAL because Fincher is a big deal, but c’mon—this was a film that was supposed to be Nomadland’s biggest competition earlier in the season. Look where it is now. Even Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried aren’t safe. The only place Mank is safe above-the-line is for BP.

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    SN
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    DGA: Chung, Fennell, Fincher, Sorkin, Zhao

    Oscar: Chung, Fennell, Fincher, Zeller, Zhao

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    SN
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    It’s Mank. They won’t be intentionally snubbing David Fincher. But if Lee Isaac Chung sneaks in, I’m betting it’ll be because Fincher lacks the #1 votes, not anybody else. And it’ll be a BIG DEAL because Fincher is a big deal, but c’mon—this was a film that was supposed to be Nomadland’s biggest competition earlier in the season. Look where it is now. Even Gary Oldman and Amanda Seyfried aren’t safe. The only place Mank is safe above-the-line is for BP.

    Mank will lead the nominations count and Fincher is the only veteran in contention. He’s 100% locked.

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    Dr. Manhattan
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    PGA predictions:

    1. Nomadland (AFI + NBR)
    2. The Trial of the Chicago 7 (SAG + WGA + AFI)
    3. Minari (SAG + AFI + NBR)
    4. Mank (AFI)
    5. Promising Young Woman (WGA + NBR)
    6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (AFI + WGA + NBR + SAG)
    7. News of the World (NBR + WGA)
    8. One Night in Miami (AFI + NBR + WGA + SAG)
    9. Judas and the Black Messiah (AFI + WGA)
    10. Soul/Da 5 Bloods/Sound of Metal

    If we look back at surprising picks we have:

    Nightcrawler (AFI + NBR + WGA)

    Wonder Woman (AFI)

    Crazy Rich Asians (SAG + NBR)

    A Quiet Place (AFI + NBR + WGA)

    The Big Sick (SAG + AFI + WGA)

    So, right now Soul has AFI + NBR. Da 5 Bloods has SAG + AFI + NBR. Sound of Metal has AFI + NBR + WGA. One of those will be the 10th nominee.

    If the last PGA slot really is between Da 5 Bloods, Soul, and Sound of Metal, then I think it will be Sound of Metal that takes it.

    There have only been four animated films to have received a PGA nomination. This already lowers the likelihood of Soul snagging a nomination. Couple that with the film’s dwindling buzz, its chances of getting a PGA nomination seem to be practically nil.

    Da 5 Bloods doesn’t seem to be that much of an industry favourite. It definitely isn’t an audience favourite. With Da 5 Bloods, I do think its snub at WGA does say a lot about its position in the Best Picture race. You have mentioned two PGA nominees that got in without a WGA nomination, Wonder Woman and Crazy Rich Asians, but both of those films were audience-friendly commercial hits. Da 5 Bloods isn’t that and so I think it will miss. I could be wrong. I hope I am; Da 5 Bloods is one of my favourites of 2020. Alas, I think this is the direction the film is headed on.

    Sound of Metal seems to be getting industry love (more so than Da 5 Bloods) as was indicated by the its WGA nomination and it seems to be getting some industry love in general. I think it gets in, both on the basis of its strength as a contender and the weakness of its two competitors.

    That’ll be your ten, then: Judas and the Black Messiah, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Mank, Minari, News of the World, Nomadland, One Night in Miami, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7.

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    Dr. Manhattan
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    DGA: Chung, Fennell, Fincher, Sorkin, Zhao

    Oscar: Chung, Fennell, Fincher, Zeller, Zhao

    I’m thinking the same. I think that, although Aaron Sorkin is a likely snub at the Oscars, he is a shoo-in for a DGA nomination. Especially if The Trial of the Chicago 7 is one of the Best Picture frontrunners, a DGA nomination would be imperative.

    I’m not entirely sure about Zeller, although I am predicting him to get nominated. That fifth slot is anyone’s game and Zeller is as good a contender as anyone else.

    The DGA lineup consisting of Chung, Fennell, Fincher, Sorkin, and Zhao is most likely, I feel. Their films are currently the top 5 Best Picture contenders and it makes sense for the DGA to go with those five. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if either Paul Greengrass or Regina King are nominated in lieu of either Chung or Fennell.

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