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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)

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    George Ehret
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    Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig say hello. Emerald Fennell is barely known as an actress to be honest. Their bias against actors turned directors is more over A-listers like Ben Affleck and Bradley Cooper.

    Regina King falls in that latter category as well.

    It also helps that Emerald’s directing has more style than Regina’s. It’s exactly why Peter Farrelly would never have gotten nominated with a body as cliquey and snobby as the directors’ branch of the Academy. Emerald would’ve absolutely gotten in over Farrelly

    Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung

    #StopAsianHate

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    Rishabh Chaturvedi
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    All I want is some love for Vinterberg and Shaka King. Apparently too much to ask for.

    These two, along with Lee Isaac Chung and Darius Marder, would make an ideal Director lineup for me. And of course, the brilliant Chloé Zhao. Sigh, a man can dream.

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    wolfali
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    I think there is a clear top 4 of MinariNomadlandPromising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Not necessarily in that order.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Zuranthium
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    Do not agree with Minari in that position, yet. Need to see it getting in at DGA first. Failing to make the top 15 at BAFTA is really bad. It’s not like the movie was a late release.

    If it only gets nominated for Picture-Director-Support Actress-Screenplay at the Oscars, that would be more indicative of a typical lone director film, than a top 5 player. Mank hasn’t gone away despite some wishes for it to flop, and should be considered top 5. The editing category is going to be very key. The Father and Promising Young Woman can both get in there, but miss Director, which is a sign they are still top 5. The same goes for Trial of the Shitago 7. It’s a strange year and I’d really like to see exactly how it would turn out with a flat 5 nominees, because I’m currently thinking it’s a 2/5 matchup between Picture and Director.

    Da 5 Bloods is another movie that looks like it can be a lone director situation. Even if Spike Lee misses DGA, I’m pretty sure I will predict him for the Oscars. What he did with that movie is so audacious, creative, and compassionate. I think it’s his best work ever from a visual standpoint too. Other directors will reward this, and the Oscar voting system is a benefit for this kind of movie being nominated.

    I’m also sticking with Another Round as long as it has a strong BAFTA showing. Vinterberg has been around for quite some time as a notable director and this is his career best; he also has a personal narrative for this film specifically. It’s unfortunate the American awards campaign for the film wasn’t more prolific, but I think enough voters are aware. If you look at the trio of Minari, Da 5 Bloods, Another Round, they represent very different styles from each other. I can see the different voting blocs that will support each of these styles. Mank is stylistically very different too, and Nomadland also stands out enough on its own (I think it has some overlap with Minari, but the story being loner-centric and having varied locations is a significant contrast to the more rooted, family-centric Minari).

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    JackO
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    I think there is a clear top 4 of Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman and The Trial of the Chicago 7. Not necessarily in that order.

    BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    Promising Young Woman is not top 4.

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    JackO
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    Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig say hello.

    Emerald Fennell is barely known as an actress to be honest. Their bias against actors turned directors is more over A-listers like Ben Affleck and Bradley Cooper.

    The Get Out and Lady Bird comp died when PYW missed SAG ensemble. get over it. Ya’ll keep comparing this movie to every other successful movie in the planet and its getting tiresome. Take your Ls.

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    JackO
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    This forum is getting more delusional by the hour. Ya’ll sound like yall in a cult!

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    wolfali
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    This forum is getting more delusional by the hour. Ya’ll sound like yall in a cult!

    No one has joined the cult of Hillbilly Elegy.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Riley Chow
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    BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA Promising Young Woman is not top 4.

    I am embarrassed by this post.

    Do not agree with Minari in that position, yet. Need to see it getting in at DGA first. Failing to make the top 15 at BAFTA is really bad. It’s not like the movie was a late release.

    BAFTA did not really care about Green Book or Moonlight and they still went on to win Best Picture. Each got only four nominations, nothing below the line and were snubbed in Best Direction. Yet they still made the top five in Best Film. Minari not even making the top fifteen is a whole other level.

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    SN
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    The Get Out and Lady Bird comp died when PYW missed SAG ensemble. get over it.

    PYW barely has an ensemble. Unlike Lady Bird and Get Out, it’s an one woman’s show. Some stans here dared to predict it in Ensemble, but it was very clear that was never going to happen. It simply never needed an Ensemble nom.

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    wolfali
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    What shall be interesting to see is how well Mank does at BAFTA. I think the acting jury will shut out the actors but what should be interesting to see is whether the general membership nominated it in Best Film. It had a better response in the UK than it did in the US (a bit like First Man and Joker).

    My argument with Minari is that in an extended season like this, it has the opportunity to grow and grow in momentum (as we’ve seen it do already) that in 8 weeks time its BAFTA snub won’t really hurt it so much. We’ve already seen it get 3 SAG nominations (a rarity for films that are hardly in the English language due to the populist nature of the SAG-AFTRA voting body) and the cast feel like they’re everywhere. Yuh-jung Youn has a shot at winning too which can only help it.

    Not saying it will win Best Picture (I feel like Nomadland is far out front) but it feels safely in the top 5.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Marcus.H
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    I watched “Another Round” and “News of the World” yesterday.

    • Another Round  -I initially hoped it could make BD, but now I think it will stay only in the “International Film” after watching it. Best thing about AR is Mads Mikkelsen, the ensemble, and the screenplay which involves a glimpse of midlife crises.  Direction didn’t impress me in a way the screenplay did. His previous work (my fav!), “The Hunt,” actually did the same thing —screenplay and acting are amazing, but direction is only good.

     

    • News of the World -I didn’t want it to be nominated anything but Zengel before watching, but now I can totally see it being locks in Cinematography, Sound, Costume, Score and PD. Not a lock but very possible categories are BP, BD, Supporting Actress, Editing, and Screenplay. It’s slow, old-fashioned, predictable, but it’s not bad.  I don’t like the screenplay, but it’s stronger than First Cow due to visibility. Best things about the film go to Hanks, Zengel, Greengrass’ direction, cinematography, and score.

    While “Another Round” is a better film, “News of the World” is actually better than what I expected, considering that poor audience rating.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    wolfali
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    Speaking of First Cow, I’m sorry but I don’t understand the predictions for it. It failed to get into the empty field at WGA, won’t have an added boost from BAFTA nominations because it’s ineligible there (it doesn’t come out until May over here) and unlike The Personal History of David Copperfield and I’m Thinking of Ending Things (both of which I’m not considering in Screenplay) it doesn’t have an Academy Award nominated writer behind it.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Zuranthium
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    I think that’s a poor reading of what’s happening in Another Round from a directorial perspective. It has to balance comedy and despair, and the way it uses the frame to express those things, and probe the characters, is entirely the art of directing. There’s a level of sophistication here that is simply not seen in most other comedies, and it’s effortless about it while also using editing intelligently and even in surprising ways. Plus the final scene is flat-out iconic and perfectly realized, because of how it’s directed.

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    SN
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    It failed to get into the empty field at WGA

    A24 didn’t send screeners. I’m not predicting it though.

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