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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)

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    JV
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    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204089062

    Speaking of First Cow, I’m sorry but I don’t understand the predictions for it. It failed to get into the empty field at WGA, won’t have an added boost from BAFTA nominations because it’s ineligible there (it doesn’t come out until May over here) and unlike The Personal History of David Copperfield and I’m Thinking of Ending Things (both of which I’m not considering in Screenplay) it doesn’t have an Academy Award nominated writer behind it.

    It was nominated for USC Scripter and Kelly Reichardt is overdue for a first nomination. And there’s a lot of passion behind it as was one of the first movies to come out digitally during the pandemic.

    But I agree, I don’t understand how it’s still so high in the predictions center. It made sense before, but now it’s being shut out at the guilds and didn’t get a WGA nomination, mainly because of A24 messing it up (what a sueprise!) there.

     

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    Marcus.H
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    #1204089072

    I think that’s a poor reading of what’s happening in Another Round from a directorial perspective. It has to balance comedy and despair, and the way it uses the frame to express those things, and probe the characters, is entirely the art of directing. There’s a level of sophistication here that is simply not seen in most other comedies, and it’s effortless about it while also using editing intelligently and even in surprising ways. Plus the final scene is flat-out iconic and perfectly realized, because of how it’s directed.

    Don’t get me wrong. I did think direction is good, and you’re free to analyze all contenders in this detailed way.  But I’m talking about Oscars prediction, and we know it’s already difficult to get into BD as an international film unless you’re very strong. Another Round’s direction is certainly not as showy as Paweł Pawlikowski’s from Cold War, which actually overperformed in US critic awards with cinematography noms and got into BD in London Critic Circle award.

    Btw, Paweł Pawlikowski was actually top 10 (#7 the last week, #11 before BAFTA nom)  at our prediction center in 2018. He’s not a surprise out-of-nowhere nominee.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    JV
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    #1204089103

    Will Mavity shared four anonymous ballots for DGA: https://mobile.twitter.com/mavericksmovies/status/1368393716545638401

    Mentions:

    Nomadland: 4

    Minari: 3

    Promising Young Woman: 2

    One Night in Miami: 2

    The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, First Cow, Judas and the Black Messiah, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, The Invisible Man, Tenet, Da 5 Bloods and The United States vs Billie Holiday received 1 mention.

    Obviously, it doesn’t mean much. Literally, the only thing that we can take out of this is that Nomadland is sweeping.

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    Zuranthium
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    #1204089134

    Another Round is better directed than The Hunt though IMO, and also stronger as a directing showcase than a screenplay (although very good there too). I think it’s too simplistic to be like “the movie is mostly just Mads Mikkelsen and the writing”. The plot is something that easily could be a typical vehicle for Will Ferrell or some shit, and Mads even being allowed to give the performance he did is because of how the entire tone of the film was calibrated.

    Going past the low-hanging fruit of trying to direct the screenplay of Another Round in a more “serious” way than a Ferrell vehicle, I still say it’s more a feat of directing that it turned out so memorable. It too easily could have fallen into being a simplistic uplifting mid-life crisis kind of thing, briefly comforting but quickly forgettable, like so many others. There’s a personal, auteristic stamp on the film and very attentive control over how the characters move and how the scenes flow, putting this on a different level. And that song choice!

    RE: Pawel Pawlikowski, I’m sure the BAFTA support is what shot his odds up on GD. If we see Another Round have a best possible showing at BAFTA, then of course the Goldderby clown center will take notice and the film’s odds will shoot up there.

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    Marcus.H
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    #1204089169

    Will Mavity shared four anonymous ballot: Nomadland: 4 Minari: 3 Promising Young Woman: 2 One Night in Miami: 2 The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,  Judas and the Black Messiah, Da 5 Bloods and The United States vs Billie Holiday received 1 mention.

    I laughed when I saw it.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    JackO
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    #1204089206

    Before anyone gets excited when their fave appears at the PGA awards, dont forget they always miss one and there is always at least one snub, more likely to be multiple.

    lol our people really drawing conclusions from 4 ballots out of over 8,000 people? Ya’ll crazy!

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    JackO
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    #1204089211

    PYW barely has an ensemble. Unlike Lady Bird and Get Out, it’s an one woman’s show. Some stans here dared to predict it in Ensemble, but it was very clear that was never going to happen. It simply never needed an Ensemble nom.

    How could you say it “barely missed” when people in here were predicting Bo Burnham!? And you have no idea what the votals are. Pure delusion!

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    Marcus.H
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    #1204089290

    Before anyone gets excited when their fave appears at the PGA awards, dont forget they always miss one and there is always at least one snub.

    Since Oscars got only 8-9 nominees these years, that one “snub” is reasonable. And PGA has got all nominees right 3 times in past 5 years. That’s not “always miss one,” which is probably more suitable for CC actually.

    2015:  CC 8/8 , PGA 7/8
    2016: CC 8/9 , PGA 9/9
    2017: CC 8/9 , PGA 7/9
    2018: CC 7/8 , PGA 8/8
    2019: CC 9/9 , PGA 9/9

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    Milk Money
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    #1204089303

    So saddened to hear this about Michael Wolf, the Sound Mixer of Nomadland. Apparently he committed suicide before the Globes due to depression. RIP 😢

    https://variety.com/2021/film/news/michael-wolf-snyder-dead-dies-nomadland-production-sound-mixer-1234923361/

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    KAZ-2.5
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    #1204089358

    How incredibly sad.

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    Eddy Q
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    This is really sad to hear. Imagine going through so much pain in such isolation.

    I haven’t been able to see Nomadland yet due to restrictions in the UK but I’ve heard great things about the sound in the film. We can at least be thankful he left this accomplishment behind.

    RIP Michael Wolf Snyder

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    Eddy Q
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    #1204089408

    It was nominated for USC Scripter and Kelly Reichardt is overdue for a first nomination.

    The USC Scripter nomination for First Cow calls to mind Debra Granik’s Leave No Trace, which actually won the award. It still never really gained traction elsewhere, and I expect the same to happen for Reichardt’s film unfortunately.

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    JV
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    #1204089438

    Before anyone gets excited when their fave appears at the PGA awards, dont forget they always miss one and there is always at least one snub, more likely to be multiple. lol our people really drawing conclusions from 4 ballots out of over 8,000 people? Ya’ll crazy!

    18,000, actually.
    There’s no one drawing conclusions here. I stated that it doesn’t mean anything. Nomadland is winning, as we knew before.

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    TVFan365
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    #1204092689

    Nomadland winning Best Picture at the Critics Choice and Golden Globes is great but hopefully this isn’t a situation like The Social Network or Boyhood where the most acclaimed film of the year won at the Critics Choice and Golden Globes but then proceeded to lose at PGA and DGA.

    I don’t think I’ll truly feel confident until it actually wins at PGA lol. I do think it’s likely to win at DGA though. I am predicting Nomadland to win Best Picture at the Oscars but I can still see The Trial of the Chicago 7 being this year’s The King’s Speech or Birdman.

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    DaKardii
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    #1204092792

    POST-CRITICS CHOICE PREDICTIONS

    Best Picture

    1. Nomadland
    2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
    3. Mank
    4. Promising Young Woman
    5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
    6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    7. Minari
    8. One Night in Miami
    9. The Father
    10. News of the World

    Best Director

    1. Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
    2. Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
    3. Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
    4. David Fincher (Mank)
    5. Regina King (One Night in Miami)
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