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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)

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    wolfali
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    #1204055727

    It might sneak in at BAFTA considering it over-performed on the long-list and British audiences and critics were kinder to it but that’s it imo.

    One film that could be a potential outlier if there is one is The Father. The editing is quite flashy and it has been winning quite a few awards for its editing so far.

    Is anyone else predicting a Mank snub in Editing? I feel like it could be like <i>Once Upon a Time in Hollywood </i>last year.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Riley Chow
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    Mank is an easy editing snub to me. It is barely a Best Picture contender at this point, plus it is considered boring and too long. Either of those could do it in singlehandedly.

    Sound of Metal then? Still haven’t seen it but isn’t it the only film that looks like it can continue the trend of Sound nominee + Editing winner? It also seems like it could be a Whiplash type winner.

    That is what I have, but it is a flimsy prediction.  It is actually quite stationary, but if anyone looks it up or gets a physical screener for it or sees an FYC billboard for it, they will see that shirtless shot of Riz Ahmed sweating as he plays the drum in the dark.  That marketing is ensuring that voters disproportionately remember the most/only chaotic part of the movie and it already has the boost of being assured the sound win (simply on the basis of its title, as opposed to whether it has merit or not).

    I am sketchier on Judas and the Black Messiah getting nominated, but it would be the highest-octane contender, between its gunfire, speeches, night-driving and overall cat-and-mouse crime narrative.  It is the closest that we have to action and The Departed won.

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    SN
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    Sound of Metal then? Still haven’t seen it but isn’t it the only film that looks like it can continue the trend of Sound nominee + Editing winner? It also seems like it could be a Whiplash type winner.

    It’s a pretty slow film, so I don’t think it’s winning. It’s an indie film like Whiplash but without the intensity.

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    Philip
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    Mank is an easy editing snub to me. It is barely a Best Picture contender at this point, plus it is considered boring and too long. Either of those could do it in singlehandedly.

    That is what I have, but it is a flimsy prediction. It is actually quite stationary, but if anyone looks it up or gets a physical screener for it or sees an FYC billboard for it, they will see that shirtless shot of Riz Ahmed sweating as he plays the drum in the dark. That marketing is ensuring that voters disproportionately remember the most/only chaotic part of the movie and it already has the boost of being assured the sound win (simply on the basis of having sound on its title, as opposed to whether it has merit or not).

    I am sketchier on Judas and the Black Messiah getting nominated, but it would be the highest-octane contender, between its gunfire, speeches, night-driving and overall cat-and-mouse crime narrative. It is the closest that we have to action and The Departed won.

    Judas would be a great nominee

    #12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.

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    SN
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    Is anyone else predicting a Mank snub in Editing? I feel like it could be like <i>Once Upon a Time in Hollywood </i>last year.

    Can see that happening. Last year I had the feeling OUATIH would be snubbed in Editing and I have the same feeling with Mank this year. I’m not predicting that yet, but let’s see.

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    Riley Chow
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    I am not predicting Mank and I will sooner add Promising Young Woman or Minari to my predictions. Remember Green Book and BlacKkKlansman coming out of nowhere and getting in over all of the frontrunners, seemingly just because of how well they were positioned overall? That branch is just the worst.

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    SN
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    I am not predicting Mank and I will sooner add Promising Young Woman or Minari to my predictions. Remember Green Book and BlacKkKlansman coming out of nowhere and getting in over all of the frontrunners, seemingly just because of how well they were positioned overall? That branch is just the worst.

    On the other hand, Get Out and Lady Bird were snubbed. That’s why I’m still skeptical about PYW in this category, even if it’s well positioned in the race.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    Anyone still predicting that Mank won’t get nominated for Best Picture? Remember Gone Girl got a bunch of Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations but only one Oscar nomination.

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    maxinho
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    Mank screams oscar bait, it’s getting nominations across the board and the BP nomination by default. Its strong presence in the shortlists indicates that too.

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    Butz
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    Mank is and was always getting nominated for Best Picture.

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    Philip
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    Anyone still predicting that Mank won’t get nominated for Best Picture? Remember Gone Girl got a bunch of Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations but only one Oscar nomination.

    As much as I hate Mank, Gone Girl gone 4 GG and 6 CC nods. Mank has 6 GG and 12 CC, it is also on the BAFTA longlist 14 times. Mank is going to lead the nominations, no way that doesn’t happen.

    #12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.

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    Riley Chow
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    I am confused by that logic.  Gone Girl did well at those precursors, then flopped at the Oscars, but because Mank did really well at those precursors, it will also do really well at the Oscars?  What was the point of mentioning Gone Girl?

    On the other hand, Get Out and Lady Bird were snubbed. That’s why I’m still skeptical about PYW in this category, even if it’s well positioned in the race.

    This is exactly why I do not have it!  It is those two films combined.

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    Philip
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    I am confused by that logic. Gone Girl did well at those precursors, then flopped at the Oscars, but because Mank did really well at those precursors, it will also do really well at the Oscars? What was the point of mentioning Gone Girl?

    This is exactly why I do not have it! It is those two films combined.

    I didn’t bring up Gone Girl. I just pointed out that Mank has done considerable better than Gone Girl in nominations, leading at 2 shows so far. Gone Girl was fucked over at the Oscars, I agree, but I don’t see a scenario that Mank doesn’t lead the nominations this year. I don’t believe they did BAFTA long lists back then for Gone Girl. But it only managed 2 nods at BAFTA, which should have been a huge red flag for everyone. If Mank does horrible with the BAFTA nods, then they can be worried.

    #12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.

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    Victor
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    Rewatching Knives Out and it’s so sad how it got left out last season.
    My god, so good

    For Your Emmy Consideration:
    Matthew Rhys for "Perry Mason" as Leading Actor in a Drama Series
    Ethan Hawke for "The Good Lord Bird" as Leading Actor in a Limited Series
    Elizabeth Olsen and Kathryn Hahn for "Wandavision" as Leading and Supporting actress in Limited Series
    Tobias Menzies for "The Crown" as Supporting Actor in a Drama Series.
    MJ Rodriguez for "Pose" as Leading Actress in a Drama Series.

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    Zuranthium
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    Lighting candles for Another Round to beat out Mank for nominations in Best Picture and Editing at BAFTA, and be a sign of strength that will transfer to the Oscars.

    I’m sure Mank will get the most nominations at the Oscars, but that doesn’t actually mean anything; it could get just 8 nominations, which is rather lackluster for a nomination leader and would just show a relative lack of support, particularly with snubs in Editing and Supporting Actress.

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