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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)

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    gorman
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    #1204095805

    Post PGA/ CC BP Ranking:

    1. Nomadland

    2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

    3. Minari

    4. Promising Young Woman

    5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

    6. Mank

    7. One Night in Miami

    8. The Father

    9. Judas and the Black Messiah

    10. Sound of Metal

    The Father remains in the 8th spot only because I’m assuming it gets lots of BAFTA love. If it misses BP there it falls to 10th. I’m tempted to call 1st-7th locks, and Judas is building steam perfectly. Sound of Metal looks like strong odds if we get a field of nine nominees, although it has the vibe of a film that just misses out. It’s probably good news for Raci though, much like Borat is for Bakalova, and for Screenplay and Editing, in that it reflects passion and visibility, which only further boosts its BP chances.

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    iWantTheGold
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    #1204095827

    Can somebody please explain to me the Nomadland “having it in the bag” sentiment building?

    This movie is a slow-burn atmospheric tone piece/character study… does that sound like the kind of thing Oscar voters typically go for? On a purely surface level, this is definitely NOT an Academy movie.

    Plus, on a cinematic level, it’s decent but it’s far from great. It basically plays like The Rider 2 (which was a much better movie, in my opinion). If this was an all-timer a la No Country for Old Men (another movie typically NOT in the Academy’s wheelhouse), I could see them making an exception, but I’m not buying it.

    I’m opening rooting for Mank, which to me, BY FAR, was the best film of the year… David Fincher’s career is a little more hit-and-miss than you might think, but when he hits, he hits bigger than just about anybody. At the very least, the Academy should right the wrong of 2010 and give this great veteran Best Director – he’s more than earned it. Nothing against Chloe Zhao, I think she COULD make a stone-cold great movie, but I don’t think she’s quite gotten there yet. Don’t pull a Hitchcock, Academy, history will not judge you kindly….

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    crabbie
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    #1204095922

    Can somebody please explain to me the Nomadland “having it in the bag” sentiment building? This movie is a slow-burn atmospheric tone piece/character study… does that sound like the kind of thing Oscar voters typically go for? On a purely surface level, this is definitely NOT an Academy movie. Plus, on a cinematic level, it’s decent but it’s far from great. It basically plays like The Rider 2 (which was a much better movie, in my opinion). If this was an all-timer a la No Country for Old Men (another movie typically NOT in the Academy’s wheelhouse), I could see them making an exception, but I’m not buying it. I’m opening rooting for Mank, which to me, BY FAR, was the best film of the year… David Fincher’s career is a little more hit-and-miss than you might think, but when he hits, he hits bigger than just about anybody. At the very least, the Academy should right the wrong of 2010 and give this great veteran Best Director – he’s more than earned it. Nothing against Chloe Zhao, I think she COULD make a stone-cold great movie, but I don’t think she’s quite gotten there yet. Don’t pull a Hitchcock, Academy, history will not judge you kindly….

    Fincher and one of his films should win at the top categories no doubt. But Mank was not it. Its the type of slow burn that never ends with few cinematic marvels. Mank is not even on the same level of The Social Network, Fight Club, or even Gone Girl. Zhao has “gotten there” already whatever that even means? Women don’t have to prove anything more to random users on the Internet. This same sentiment was even echoed during Bigelow’s win when she won over James Cameron. I would understand if Mank had been a better movie you’d be upset at Zhao winning but as of right now Zhao deserves the sweep.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    abelfenty
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    #1204095982

    Really sad to see Soul officially dead in the water. Borat being nominated over it at PGA is so stupid and pointless. We are so overdue another animated movie making the BP lineup, and Soul had so much going for it in the beginning. Maybe another year.

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    SN
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    #1204096005

    I just want to say Borat is overrated and unworthy of recognition. It has no right to be in conversation for Best Picture or Screenplay, even in a year like this. I never liked the concept of Borat in the first place tbh.

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    Stank83
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    #1204096030

    A bit off-topic but, One Night in Miami getting a Criterion release is ridiculous and wildly laughable.

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    Monsoon 🌊
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    #1204096039

    Soul is a potential 2x Oscar winner. That’s hardly dead in the water.

    👑Cicely Tyson (1924-2021)
    👑Mary Wilson (1944-2021)

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    Riley Chow
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    #1204096100

    Does anybody know why Margot Robbie wasn’t listed as a Producer of Promising Young Woman by the Guild?

    Long story short, they deemed her producer credit to be leaning more toward a vanity credit or what should have been an executive producer credit as opposed to being representative of actual work that is traditionally associated with the role of a producer. She was listed on the I, Tonya nomination, so she must have been more hands-on with that film.

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    wolfali
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    #1204096128

    Does this deem her ineligible for a producer credit at the Oscars?

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    gorman
    Joined:
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    #1204096143

    Can somebody please explain to me the Nomadland “having it in the bag” sentiment building? This movie is a slow-burn atmospheric tone piece/character study… does that sound like the kind of thing Oscar voters typically go for? On a purely surface level, this is definitely NOT an Academy movie. Plus, on a cinematic level, it’s decent but it’s far from great. It basically plays like The Rider 2 (which was a much better movie, in my opinion). If this was an all-timer a la No Country for Old Men (another movie typically NOT in the Academy’s wheelhouse), I could see them making an exception, but I’m not buying it. I’m opening rooting for Mank, which to me, BY FAR, was the best film of the year… David Fincher’s career is a little more hit-and-miss than you might think, but when he hits, he hits bigger than just about anybody. At the very least, the Academy should right the wrong of 2010 and give this great veteran Best Director – he’s more than earned it. Nothing against Chloe Zhao, I think she COULD make a stone-cold great movie, but I don’t think she’s quite gotten there yet. Don’t pull a Hitchcock, Academy, history will not judge you kindly….

    I mean the Mank side of your point is all just personal preference which is fair enough but not really related to the ‘Nomadland in the bag’ point. I’m rooting for I’m Thinking of Ending Things and Never Rarely Sometimes Always but the race is the race.

    I’m with you on not agreeing that it has it in the bag, though. It’s definitely too early to call that, but I can see why some people are going there already. Chicago and others don’t really look strong enough right now, it’s the most acclaimed movie and it’s won the most awards by far, it looks well set to win Director, Adapted and Cinematography – which is a formidable trio if you want to win BP, it’s campaign is massive, it seems broadly beloved right now and no backlash has yet started against it.

    I think it’s a fair stance and I think I’ll end up agreeing with it but, all that being said, Chicago could easily just take PGA, WGA and SAG as people start a backlash against Nomadland and then it’s the frontrunner, claiming that status at the ideal time, and looks very strong all of a sudden, so we need to wait until they’re all decided really.

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