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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director (Part 9)

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    Philip
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    Lighting candles for Another Round to beat out Mank for nominations in Best Picture and Editing at BAFTA, and be a sign of strength that will transfer to the Oscars.

    I’m sure Mank will get the most nominations at the Oscars, but that doesn’t actually mean anything; it could get just 8 nominations, which is rather lackluster for a nomination leader and would just show a relative lack of support, particularly with snubs in Editing and Supporting Actress.

    Seyfried unfortunately won’t be snubbed. Mank will end up with 11 or more nods probably.

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    Calvin
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    I rewatched Nomadland yesterday and honestly, as unflashy the editing is there, I could see it winning Best Editing. For such a gradually paced film it really flows along so well, and it really helps create the emotional pull of the film so well by how it slowly builds up scenes and works in tandem with the performances. Not super likely and I think the Academy will prefer the flash of Chicago 7, but there’s a chance. I also think Promising Young Woman could have a chance as a super dark horse as that’s a pretty stylishly edited film.

    FYC:

    Picture - Minari, Nomadland, Another Round, Promising Young Woman
    Director - Chloe Zhao (Nomadland), Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
    Actor - Steven Yeun (Minari), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
    Actress - Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman), Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
    S. Actor - Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
    S. Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    wolfali
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    This is exactly why I do not have it!  It is those two films combined.

    It’s going to be particularly difficult to gauge the editing chances of <i>Promising Young Woman </i>because if it gets in at the BAFTA category there is an argument to be made that it’s nomination is only due to its popularity amongst the British bloc and excitement because of the British pedigree of those behind the film (like how <i>Three Billboards </i>over-performed massively at BAFTA and got into categories like cinematography where it got in almost nowhere else).

    It’s also going to be quite difficult because I believe it’s competing in comedy at ACE.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Zuranthium
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    Seyfried unfortunately won’t be snubbed. Mank will end up with 11 or more nods probably.

    Highly doubt it gets that many, and Seyfried can easily be snubbed. The SAG snub, to some random kid, was really bad for her. At least Burstyn has the excuse of maybe her movie was underseen with SAG (I can see quite a few SAG-types just turning it off after the opening, because of how difficult that subject matter is). I don’t sense passion for Seyfried, and the lack of in-person campaigning hurts someone like her.

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    Philip
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    Highly doubt it gets that many, and Seyfried can easily be snubbed. The SAG snub, to some random kid, was really bad for her. At least Burstyn has the excuse of maybe her movie was underseen with SAG (I can see quite a few SAG-types just turning it off after the opening, because of how difficult that subject matter is). I don’t sense passion for Seyfried, and the lack of in-person campaigning hurts someone like her.

    I think it unfortunately easily gets double digit nods
    Picture
    Director
    Actor
    S. Actress
    Screenplay
    Production Design
    Costume Design
    Makeup
    Score
    Sound

    That’s 10 and it has a shot in
    Editing
    Cinematography
    Visual Effects

    I’m not saying it should get in all of these categories. Hell, I’d only give it Production Design and Costume Design. But it definitely has the chance at getting into almost every category it’s eligible.

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    Thatcher, Prime Minister of GoldDerby
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    Darlings, realistically talking, Nomadland isn’t winning Best Picture.

    As a famous singer said, "ain't nobody gonna Thatcher, Thatcher, Thatcher!"

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    mf617
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    I think there’s no reason to be concerned about box office numbers this year not being reported for some, or rather most, contenders. I don’t think it makes an impact because I don’t know that anyone else is paying attention to box office right now since so few theaters are open. The value in box office is so these companies can say that they put their movies in theaters rather than just going straight to streaming (I understand the exclusivity window is collapsed, but they’ll milk the sentiment for what it is worth). I couldn’t even tell you what a good box office result is right now, but I certainly don’t think it would make a difference in this year’s particular awards race. It is similar to how we didn’t have any actual in-person buzz from movies premiering at festivals this year. The chatter is all online and you’ve kind of got to measure that in any way you can, assuming you run in a diverse and varied circle of people paying attention to the awards race. I’d also note that Netflix likes to come out and talk about how many tens of millions of people “watched” their shows or movies (such an imprecise and unclear definition) and I haven’t seen that for any of the big contenders yet. I just don’t think that makes a difference this year.

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    SN
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    I think Minari did bad at box office and its popularity among US audience is below our expectation. One indication is the number of audience votes on IMDb or RT. Minari got less than 1,000 IMDb new votes in its first week (2/12-2/19), which is a shockingly low number. Judas, in comparison, got about 10,000.

    I didn’t know about this hiding thing before, which is an interesting information to me. Thanks!

    Minari numbers are indeed not very good ($170k total on weekend two from what is reported unofficially), but it debuted in very few theaters (around 150, Judas debuted in more than ten times that).

    I think the low IMDb numbers could be explained by the fact Judas is in a large streaming service while Minari debuted only in the A24 site.

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    Ryusei
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    Mank could be the Irishman of this season, getting nominated everywhere and winning nothing (except for production design, that one is basically in the bag already)

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    Jazzy
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    Mank is and was always getting nominated for Best Picture.

    Is and was always winning Best Picture

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    wolfali
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    Is and was always winning Best Picture

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    marty
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    The constant Mank underestimation on this forum continues to amaze me. The way some of y’all are deluding yourselves into thinking it isn’t getting all of its expected noms. And it’s easily top 5-6 for BP too, even if it’s not winning anything.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    wolfali
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    The constant Mank underestimation on this forum continues to amaze me. The way some of y’all are deluding yourselves into thinking it isn’t getting all of it’s expected noms. And it’s easily top 5-6 for BP too, even if it’s not winning anything.

    It’s top 6 but it is not winning Best Picture. Sorry.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    SN
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    Mank will get nominated for Picture, Director, Actor, Screenplay and it’ll easily lead the nominations count. It’s not winning any more than two or three technical categories though.

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    estrelas
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    Is and was always winning Best Picture

    Mank is definitely NOT winning BP under the preferential ballot system.

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