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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director

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    wolfali
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    I still stand my belief that either Promising Young Woman wins the Globe and breaks into the Picture lineup due to how lots of films seem to be underwhelming and it could become very topical when it comes to Me Too and the infringement of women’s voices and rights if one of the worst people in the world gets re-elected POTUS or that if one of Jamie or The Prom win that they’re breaking into the lineup simply as the feel good crowdpleasing pro Arts film of the year.

    I see no path for Palm Springs, Free Guy or French Exit to win the C/M Globe. I mean I know we shouldn’t rule things out but I just don’t see those happening. On the Rocks maybe but I’m pretty confident it’s The Prom vs Jamie vs PYW.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    John Berchmans
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    It’s really shameful how much dirt this industry pays towards animated films. They’ve been treated like second class to live action throughout all of film history even though Disney and Pixar’s best are on the same level as the best live action films ever made, and so many phenomenal independent animated films have been made as well.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    John Berchmans
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    Promising Young Woman feels like a film that will be completely inaccessible to most Oscar voters, and outright rejected by others. I’m sure a small portion of voters will enjoy it, but it’s just not the type of film that a majority of the voterbase would enjoy.

    Right now I think the ceiling is Best Actress and Original Screenplay only. And even those categories seem unlikely.

    Stream After Hours and In Your Eyes (Remix)

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    Manuelcolon
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    Soul debuts with a 91 on Metacritic, with a couple of 100 reviews and a mixed 60. I really want this film to overcome everything and win Best Picture, it’s time for an animated film to win, Pixar has been SO deserving with a lot of their film.

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    nkb325
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    #1203776504

    I see Prom being the fun musical everyone hypes up but then isn’t very good and Everybody’s Talking about Jamie being the movie no one’s looking out for but then becomes a crowdpleasing favorite.

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    wolfali
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    I see Prom being the fun musical everyone hypes up but then isn’t very good and Everybody’s Talking about Jamie being the movie no one’s looking out for but then becomes a crowdpleasing favorite.

    I’m considering this. However I think both The Prom and Everybody’s Talking About Jamie have the benefit of being heartwarming films which (to me) unless they get a Cats level reception means they could enter the BP lineup and spoil Promising Young Woman  (which I think is the frontrunner for the Globe) in Comedy/Musical Film (I don’t see Streep winning over Mulligan right now but she’s Meryl so who knows).

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    William Gillquist
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    #1203776612

    I see Prom being the fun musical everyone hypes up but then isn’t very good and Everybody’s Talking about Jamie being the movie no one’s looking out for but then becomes a crowdpleasing favorite.

    Seeing how disappointing Murphy’s projects have been lately, I’m definitely considering The Prom being a flop. But it will certainly still be better received then Cats.

    FYC Oscars: Chloe Zhao (Nomadland), Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mark Rylance (Trail of the Chicago 7), Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom), Soul (Best Picture, Best Animated Feature Film, and Best Original Screenplay)

    FYC Grammys: Circles (Album of the Year), Good News (Record and Song of the Year), Future Nostalgia (Album of the Year), Don't Start Now (Record and Song of the Year), Everything I Wanted (Record and Song of the Year)

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    wolfali
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    But it will certainly still be better received then Cats.

    The irony that David Fincher lost Directing for The Social Network to the person who wrote and directed Cats. I mean obviously Hooper didn’t win for Cats (imagine LMFAO) but it’s still funny.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    William Gillquist
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    If Fincher wins director this year and brings up Hooper in his acceptance speech, that would be the greatest burn in the history of acceptance speechs.

    FYC Oscars: Chloe Zhao (Nomadland), Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mark Rylance (Trail of the Chicago 7), Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom), Soul (Best Picture, Best Animated Feature Film, and Best Original Screenplay)

    FYC Grammys: Circles (Album of the Year), Good News (Record and Song of the Year), Future Nostalgia (Album of the Year), Don't Start Now (Record and Song of the Year), Everything I Wanted (Record and Song of the Year)

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    Derp Boy
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    #1203776741

    David Fincher winning and flipping the bird to Hooper would be an all-time memorable Academy win speeches

    "We will always have Paris"

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    DaKardii
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    END OF WEEK 5 PREDICTIONS

    Best Picture

    1. Nomadland
    2. Mank
    3. The Trial of the Chicago 7
    4. One Night in Miami
    5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    6. The Father
    7. Hillbilly Elegy
    8. News of the World
    9. Da 5 Bloods
    10. The French Dispatch

    Best Director

    1. Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
    2. David Fincher (Mank)
    3. Regina King (One Night in Miami)
    4. Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
    5. Paul Greengrass (News of the World)
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    Mickmack
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    #1203777023

    Promising Young Woman feels like a film that will be completely inaccessible to most Oscar voters, and outright rejected by others. I’m sure a small portion of voters will enjoy it, but it’s just not the type of film that a majority of the voterbase would enjoy. Right now I think the ceiling is Best Actress and Original Screenplay only. And even those categories seem unlikely.

    Would you say the same if the movie starred Blanchett instead?

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    wolfali
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    #1203777126

    Promising Young Woman feels like a film that will be completely inaccessible to most Oscar voters, and outright rejected by others. I’m sure a small portion of voters will enjoy it, but it’s just not the type of film that a majority of the voterbase would enjoy. Right now I think the ceiling is Best Actress and Original Screenplay only. And even those categories seem unlikely.

    Eh I don’t think it’s as inaccessible as you may think.

    I saw the film at Glasgow Film Festival and I’d say it’s more like a mixture of When Harry Met Sally, Get Out (in terms of it being a genre indie film) and I guess a slightly more out there I, Tonya (in how it has a dark subject matter). Mulligan is phenomenal throughout it and I guess it’s only really a few scenes here or there that can be considered inaccessible (and are quite gruesome). Otherwise it’s just a black comedy with a serious subject matter and thriller elements. Mulligan’s performance kind of reminded me a bit of Rosamund Pike’s in Gone Girl (except you see her character in a bit more human way than Pike’s).

    I’d be surprised if it didn’t go Musical or Comedy at the Globes. It probably would have submitted there in normal times and with this barren field I’d be surprised if Focus decided to submit it in Drama (which would kind of be category fraud or weird because it’s dark it’s very clearly a Black Comedy or depending on your persuasion a dramedy). Especially when they’re apparently pushing Never Rarely Sometimes Always in Drama already. I think Mulligan’s nomination and winning chances depends on how far an Oscar voter goes when watching it and if it gets watched in cienmas and on SVOD (which is a big unknown for non Netflix films this year). Screenplay would be very well deserved but I disagree with most predictions and think it’s more vulnerable there because the themes are quite dark and even though some parts are standard Academy fare and it’s not so inaccessible it kind of reminds me of when I, Tonya got snubbed in Original Screenplay.

    I’d be very surprised if Mulligan wasn’t top 6/8 at the very least because I think she’s at WORST this year’s Lupita Nyong’o. I can see this film get Actress, Costume Design, Editing, Hair and Makeup and Original Screenplay nods. I doubt Picture (although considering how socially relevant it is and how weird this pandemic and 2020 have been anything can happen lol) and Director kind of seems impossible when Chloe Zhao is right there.

    I am predicting the Spirit awards and the Globes to eat this up with a win for Mulligan at both (unless Frances or Vanessa win the Globe because I think Viola’s film is ineligible at the Spirits no?) and nominations in Picture, Director and Screenplay at the former (the Spirits have better taste than the Oscars sometimes) and Picture, Original Screenplay and Original Song at the latter. Whether it wins the Comedy/Musical Globe depends on the reception (audience + critical) of The Prom and Everybody’s Talking About Jamie.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Viridiana
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    #1203777158

    Promising Young Woman gives me Hustlers vibes, when it comes to its reception: GG nomination for Mulligan, Lead Actress/Director/Screenplay noms at Spirit Awards, Bafta nom for Mulligan in that new sixth slot (instead of the SAG nom Lopez got) and missing Oscars completely.

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    wolfali
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    #1203777166

    Promising Young Woman gives me Hustlers vibes, when it comes to its reception: GG nomination for Mulligan, Lead Actress/Director/Screenplay noms at Spirit Awards, Bafta nom for Mulligan in that new sixth slot (instead of the SAG nom Lopez got) and missing Oscars completely.

    To me the reason J-Lo missed was because of Academy bias towards her and snobbishness around her not being a respected enough actor. With Mulligan whilst there could very well be Academy bias towards her I think she’s in the opposite situation (she’s a very respected actor).

    I’m predicting her for the following right now (but obviously this race is so up in the air that SBC could submit in this category for Borat 2 at the BAFTAs now they’ve changed their rules and win LMAO) –

    GG win
    CC win
    SAG nom
    BAFTA nom
    Spirit win
    Oscar nom

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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