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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director

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    The Person Formerly Known As Linguini
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    #1203748440

    I feel like they’ll want to reward Fincher with director, but won’t believe the film has strong enough meaning for a best picture win. Then again, Zhao might win as a way to recognize her effort as a whole (directing, writing and editing) and Mank might be that stellar. Right now, we mostly have to predict on feeling. I just don’t feel like we’ll have a dominant year for any film.

    Yeah, the directors are usually the most traditional, so they could go for Fincher. However, the fact that Fincher’s been nominated a bunch of times and not won yet could possibly play against him, a la Tarantino v Bong.

    rubbish

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    The Person Formerly Known As Linguini
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    #1203748452

    Fun fact: Every single Best Director winner for the last 8 years (starting with Cuaron for Gravity) has also written the screenplay for the movie they won for.

    Zhao, Sorkin, Shaka King, and Greengrass are all writers for their movies. Fincher is, AFAIK, not.

    rubbish

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    William Gillquist
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    #1203748460

    Yeah, the directors are usually the most traditional, so they could go for Fincher. However, the fact that Fincher’s been nominated a bunch of times and not won yet could possibly play against him, a la Tarantino v Bong.

    I’m iffy on Fincher winning Director. Mainly because he was robbed of the win in 2011 by Tom Hooper. So even if he is the best director this year, they could still give it to someone else less deserving. And also with Bong winning this year, I think the academy might start awarding lesser known directors, very likely Zhao.

    FYC Oscars: Chloe Zhao (Nomadland), Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mark Rylance (Trial of the Chicago 7), Viola Davis and Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom), Soul (Best Picture, Best Animated Feature Film, and Best Original Screenplay)

    FYC Golden Globes (TV): Ted Lasso (Best Comedy Series), Jason Sudekis (Best Actor in a Comedy Series), Hannah Waddingham (Best Supporting Actress), The Boys (Best Drama Series), Anthony Starr (Best Actor in a Drama Series)

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    Viridiana
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    #1203749338

    Surprised to see Zeller in so many predictions. I thought he’d be considered one of those that get a BP nomination and that’s pretty much their reward.

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    SDoesNotKnow504
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    #1203749535

    This might be an annoying thought, but as Asian-American, I truly wonder if the Academy will give it to two Asian directors in a row. I’m not saying the membership is a monolith and they come together to make these decisions, but it may play into people’s minds.

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    The Person Formerly Known As Linguini
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    #1203749794

    This might be an annoying thought, but as Asian-American, I truly wonder if the Academy will give it to two Asian directors in a row. I’m not saying the membership is a monolith and they come together to make these decisions, but it may play into people’s minds.

    Hmm, we did have Cuaron>Inarritu>Inarritu>/>Del Toro>Cuaron back to back (albeit with one Chazelle thrown in). Is it too much to hope for to think that they’ve moved passed thinking of awarding POC in “quotas”?

    Also, I know we say that the Directors are the oldest and whitest branch, but AFAIK, in the AMPAS’ recent “diversification” efforts, they did extend membership to a whole bunch of international directors/producers/actors/craftsmen. I don’t have any numbers with me, but I distinctly remember hearing about filmmakers like Zoya Akhtar receiving invitations to join the Academy, so they might really be reaching out to a wider pool of potential voters.

    rubbish

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    OccultCherry
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    #1203751257

    Fincher will take Director and Nomadland will take Picture.

    FYC:

    Picture: Nomadland
    Director: Chloe Zhao
    Leading Actress: Frances McDormand
    Leading Actor: Anthony Hopkins
    Supporting Actress: Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Adapted Screenplay: The Father
    Original Screenplay: Minari

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    OccultCherry
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    #1203751269

    Fun fact: Every single Best Director winner for the last 8 years (starting with Cuaron for Gravity) has also written the screenplay for the movie they won for. Zhao, Sorkin, Shaka King, and Greengrass are all writers for their movies. Fincher is, AFAIK, not.

    Don’t forget Zeller. He might be a co-writer for the film but he wrote the play too.

    FYC:

    Picture: Nomadland
    Director: Chloe Zhao
    Leading Actress: Frances McDormand
    Leading Actor: Anthony Hopkins
    Supporting Actress: Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Adapted Screenplay: The Father
    Original Screenplay: Minari

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    Derp Boy
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    #1203751393

    Yeah, so Jack Fincher wrote screenplay right?

    "We will always have Paris"

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    BloodPlains
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    #1203752082

    Yeah, so Jack Fincher wrote screenplay right?

    I see this being a factor. What’s the Academy’s track record with passion projects?

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    wolfali
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    #1203752285

    Picture

    1. Nomadland
    2. Mank
    3. The Trial of the Chicago 7
    4. One Night in Miami
    5. Judas and the Black Messiah
    6. The Father
    7. Hillbilly Elegy
    8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    9. Soul
    10. Minari

    Director

    1. Chloe Zhao
    2. David Fincher
    3. Shaka King
    4. Ron Howard
    5. Florian Zeller

    6. Regina King
    7. Aaron Sorkin
    8. Spike Lee
    9. Lee Daniels
    10. Lee Isaac Chung

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", ANTHONY HOPKINS FOR "THE FATHER", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203752726

    Fincher will take Director and Nomadland will take Picture.

    That’s what I’m thinking too. Except Nomadland will lose the precursors and drop to 2nd Place in the odds before ot wins, because that’s what has happened every year for the last 6 years.

    I find it hard to believe Fincher loses though. Mank feels like a Gravity/La La Land type of film, that will win Director and a lot of technicals. Zhao is a first time nominee, a female has only ever won once, a POC female has never won, and unlike Fincher she has no narrative, while Fincher has two previous nominees, is a white male, and has a massive overdue narrative. Really the only way I can see Zhao winning is if her work as Director is more praised than Fincher’s work as Director for Mank, and unless Mank bombs critically I just don’t see that happening, considering the nature of the projects.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    SDoesNotKnow504
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    #1203752852

    I also wonder how well Nomadland will play with the Academy voters. It might end up like other critics’ faves that challenge the typical narrative structure but regular moviegoers may find boring. We know the Academy’s tastes skew more towards the middle than the high brow, with some exceptions and surprise choices, of course.

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203752874

    I also wonder how well Nomadland will play with the Academy voters. It might end up like other critics’ faves that challenge the typical narrative structure but regular moviegoers may find boring. We know the Academy’s tastes skew more towards the middle than the high brow, with some exceptions and surprise choices, of course.

    It was accessible enough to win the TIFF People’s Choice Award. Winners of that award aren’t usually the sort that general audiences find “boring”.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203753181

    https://variety.com/2020/film/news/one-night-in-miami-release-date-1234790445/amp/

    One Night In Miami will release in theaters first on Christmas, then on Amazon in 2021.

    Fuck the Grammys

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