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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director

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    John Berchmans
    Joined:
    Jan 22nd, 2018
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    #1203805746

    The Roma situation is the only thing stopping me from predicting Nomadland to win Picture.

    If anything Mank is more comparable to Roma since they are both Netflix films, and the Academy has had a strong anti-Netflix contingent that has been working against Netflix for years.

    2015: Idris Elba misses a nominations for Beasts of No Nation despite receiving multiple precursor nominations.

    2018: Roma loses Best Picture to Green Book

    2019: The Irishman receives zero Oscar wins, Marriage Story receives only one win, The Two Popes misses Best Picture. Netflix overall goes 2/22.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    NevadaR
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    Jan 13th, 2018
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    #1203806065

    As someone who predicted 1917, I didn’t do it cause I doubted a foreign movie winning. I did it because 1917 swept the precursors, and that’s good enough reason to predict a win. And I still knew that if anything was upsetting it was Parasite.

    And how did that work out lmao

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    hopelesstar
    Joined:
    Mar 10th, 2020
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    #1203806076

    I’m glad I never left the Parasite train. The passion was there and sometimes the most deserving wins.

    Regarding this season, Mank is not winning. They will never give BP to Netflix, especially not this year.

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    gabspss
    Joined:
    Sep 10th, 2018
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    #1203806084

    The reason why I predicted Parasite (I also believe it was the reason why many people predicted as well) were the anonymous ballots. It was shocking how high Parasite was in almost every single one of them.

    PGA has the same system and 1917 won, but one thing makes the Oscar different than the PGA in this category: the AMPAS has a good amount of foreign voters and they would for sure put Parasite in #1.

    The chaotic editing from Moulin Rouge!
    The chaotic editing from Moulin Rouge!
    The chaotic editing from Moulin Rouge!
    The chaotic editing from Moulin Rouge!

    I love it, I love it, I love it, but I also have my problems with it.

    Nicole Kidman is amazing in Moulin Rouge!

    The film won the Golden Globe and the PGA for Best Motion Picture

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    JackO
    Joined:
    Jun 2nd, 2011
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    #1203806088

    It was clear Parasite was winning BP after it won SAG ensemble.

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    gabspss
    Joined:
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    #1203806099

    It was clear Parasite was winning BP after it won SAG ensemble.

    No, it wasn’t. Parasite was definetely the most ensemble friendly movie of the bunch and their hurdle was the nomination. We all knew Parasite had a good chance of winning SAG.

    The Oscars are a different thing because Parasite had already lost good for 1917/OUATIH (Critics Choice, PGA, DGA and BAFTA)

    The chaotic editing from Moulin Rouge!
    The chaotic editing from Moulin Rouge!
    The chaotic editing from Moulin Rouge!
    The chaotic editing from Moulin Rouge!

    I love it, I love it, I love it, but I also have my problems with it.

    Nicole Kidman is amazing in Moulin Rouge!

    The film won the Golden Globe and the PGA for Best Motion Picture

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    JackO
    Joined:
    Jun 2nd, 2011
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    #1203806101

    No, it wasn’t. Parasite was definetely the most ensemble friendly movie of the bunch and their hurdle was the nomination. We all knew Parasite had a good chance of winning SAG.

    The Oscars are a different thing because Parasite had already lost good for 1917/OUATIH (Critics Choice, PGA, DGA and BAFTA)

    Parasite was literally the first ever foreign language film to ever be nominated for the ensemble but go off 1917 predictor lol

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    gabspss
    Joined:
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    #1203806107

    Parasite was literally the first ever foreign language film to ever be nominated for the ensemble but go off 1917 predictor lol

    Life is Beautiful was the first film to be nominated for ensemble.

    And I predicted Parasite, I just don’t think it was wide clear that Parasite was winning BP after SAG. It definetely helped tho.

    The chaotic editing from Moulin Rouge!
    The chaotic editing from Moulin Rouge!
    The chaotic editing from Moulin Rouge!
    The chaotic editing from Moulin Rouge!

    I love it, I love it, I love it, but I also have my problems with it.

    Nicole Kidman is amazing in Moulin Rouge!

    The film won the Golden Globe and the PGA for Best Motion Picture

    Profile picture
    JackO
    Joined:
    Jun 2nd, 2011
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    #1203806116

    Life is Beautiful was the first film to be nominated for ensemble.

    And I predicted Parasite, I just don’t think it was wide clear that Parasite was winning BP after SAG. It definetely helped tho.

    Just because you missed the tea leaves doesnt mean they werent there.

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    fyras19
    Joined:
    Nov 25th, 2019
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    #1203806131

    And how did that work out lmao

    I predicted Parasite for the win, but let’s not act like predicting 1917 was something wild because it was the frontrunner up until the moment Spike Lee announced Bong as the best director winner. I didn’t like 1917 the way a lot of people did but when you win GG BP, PGA, DGA and Bafta you’re automatically the frontrunner; hell it even got a screenplay nod despite having strong way better written contenders. There was clear passion for Parasite, hence many people predicted it for the win, but it was still a surprise. And no, a SAG ensemble win is far from being the best predictor for BP.

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    AmnistY21
    Joined:
    Jan 1st, 2018
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    #1203806135

    The reason why I predicted Parasite (I also believe it was the reason why many people predicted as well) were the anonymous ballots. It was shocking how high Parasite was in almost every single one of them. PGA has the same system and 1917 won, but one thing makes the Oscar different than the PGA in this category: the AMPAS has a good amount of foreign voters and they would for sure put Parasite in #1.

    People should have paid more attention to those anonymous ballots for sure. I was already predicting Parasite but after reading them and seeing almost no passion for 1917 I just knew.  Even OUATIH was mentioned more often.

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    wolfali
    Joined:
    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1203806139

    I think people are really underestimating The Father and Nomadland. Anti Netflix voters in the Academy might rank both films first.

    I do think Netflix is winning Picture eventually though.

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    gorman
    Joined:
    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1203806202

    Picture

    1. Nomadland
    2. Mank
    3. One Night in Miami
    4. The Father
    5. Soul
    6. The Trial of the Chicago 7
    7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    8. Minari
    9. Judas and the Black Messiah
    10. News of the World

    Director

    1. Fincher
    2. Zhao
    3. King
    4. Zeller
    5. Chung

    Tried to roughly order by win likelihood but I’d have Mank and Nomadland far ahead in both categories at the minute. I like Chung as a passion pick in Director, I’m not sure the love will be there for Chicago 7/ Sorkin come April.

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    David
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    Aug 18th, 2018
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    #1203806225

    One Night in Miami

    One Night is being overestimated by most. From someone who has seen the film, It’s an adapted and supp actor player that will probably get the 8th to last slot in bp. (I can see it missing as well)

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    gorman
    Joined:
    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1203806232

    One Night is being overestimated by most. From someone who has seen the film, It’s an adapted and supp actor player that will probably get the 8th to last slot in bp.

    Interesting. I’ve no clue what to think of most beyond Nomadland and Mank, ONIM seems like it has the ingredients to be a high-placed also-ran in BP, what do you think of King’s odds in Director?

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