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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director

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    Cordelia
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    #1203807217

    I wonder if the election’s outcome could shuffle the deck for Best Picture a little. I’m not an American, and am an outsider, but wanting America to get its shit together.

    If Biden wins, I think the mood in Hollywood will be fairly celebratory amongst liberal and leftists. I don’t think there will be an absence of political factors for the candidates – police brutality is still a thing, BLM protests still occur, and a lot of unaddressed political issues remain. However, there will be less urgency to create a big “Hollywood Statement” by what gets nominated and wins. Upbeat or celebratory movies could gain attention? I don’t know many of those this race.

    If Trump wins, I think the Academy will feel the need to make a big response. I think movies such as Never Rarely Sometimes Always or Promising Young Woman might get more awards attention with the potential Supreme court rulings regarding women’s rights, specifically abortion for the former (which I know could still happen with Biden as the court is still stacked, but will likely be sped up). Films such as Judas and the Black Messiah, One Night in Miami, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 might gain more potency as the past reflecting the future. Films about people in lower economic classes like Hillbilly Elegy and Nomadland will also get attention. I know I’ve listed a huge chunk of potential nominees here and none in Biden, but that’s because I don’t really know what films would thrive in that post-election environment.

    I’m spitballing here, and I know there’s far more going on in this election than this. I just think this is an interesting element of Oscars analysis, and in hindsight will be interesting to analyse, in the same way that other election years have (Argo is another interesting one to look back at in addition to Moonlight)

     

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203807445

    I wonder if the election’s outcome could shuffle the deck for Best Picture a little. I’m not an American, and am an outsider, but wanting America to get its shit together. If Biden wins, I think the mood in Hollywood will be fairly celebratory amongst liberal and leftists. I don’t think there will be an absence of political factors for the candidates – police brutality is still a thing, BLM protests still occur, and a lot of unaddressed political issues remain. However, there will be less urgency to create a big “Hollywood Statement” by what gets nominated and wins. Upbeat or celebratory movies could gain attention? I don’t know many of those this race. If Trump wins, I think the Academy will feel the need to make a big response. I think movies such as Never Rarely Sometimes Always or Promising Young Woman might get more awards attention with the potential Supreme court rulings regarding women’s rights, specifically abortion for the former (which I know could still happen with Biden as the court is still stacked, but will likely be sped up). Films such as Judas and the Black Messiah, One Night in Miami, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 might gain more potency as the past reflecting the future. Films about people in lower economic classes like Hillbilly Elegy and Nomadland will also get attention. I know I’ve listed a huge chunk of potential nominees here and none in Biden, but that’s because I don’t really know what films would thrive in that post-election environment. I’m spitballing here, and I know there’s far more going on in this election than this. I just think this is an interesting element of Oscars analysis, and in hindsight will be interesting to analyse, in the same way that other election years have (Argo is another interesting one to look back at in addition to Moonlight)

    As I said in the Chicago 7 thread, that film would benefit the most from a Trump re-election, likely becoming the frontrunner to win Best Picture. It’s also possible that there could be more diversity in the above-the-line winners, such as Zhao/King winning over Fincher, or Boseman/Lindo/Kaluuya winning over Hopkins.

    That being said, Biden is heavily favored to win the election, with the largest polling lead in American history, so I doubt that any of these scenarios will happen.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    Stank83
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    #1203807578

    1. Mank
    2. Nomadland
    3. The Trial of Chicago 7
    4. One Night in Miami
    5. Da 5 Bloods

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    Gabriel Guarin
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    #1203808820

    That being said, Biden is heavily favored to win the election, with the largest polling lead in American history, so I doubt that any of these scenarios will happen.

    Don’t be so sure of a Biden victory. Even if he does win, Trump could steal that from him just by throwing a tantrum over ‘voter hoax fraud’ and refuse to leave the white house.

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1203808837

    Don’t be so sure of a Biden victory. Even if he does win, Trump could steal that from him just by throwing a tantrum over ‘voter hoax fraud’ and refuse to leave the white house.

    If he refused to leave the White House if he lost, then it’s not like he’d just be allowed to do so. He’d be forced out in such a scenario.

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    Dan Backslide
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    #1203808841

    As I said in the Chicago 7 thread, that film would benefit the most from a Trump re-election, likely becoming the frontrunner to win Best Picture. It’s also possible that there could be more diversity in the above-the-line winners, such as Zhao/King winning over Fincher, or Boseman/Lindo/Kaluuya winning over Hopkins. That being said, Biden is heavily favored to win the election, with the largest polling lead in American history, so I doubt that any of these scenarios will happen.

    King’s definitely not in the running to win. Her direction was well received, but not that well received. And the presence of a more experienced female director with much better reviews not only puts her chances of being nominated into question, but completely obliterated her winning odds.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203808879

    If he refused to leave the White House if he lost, then it’s not like he’d just be allowed to do so. He’d be forced out in such a scenario.

    Technically, there is a scenario where the Supreme Court decides who wins the election, and it is 6-3 Republican. But it most likely won’t come to that.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203808881

    King’s definitely not in the running to win. Her direction was well received, but not that well received. And the presence of a more experienced female director with much better reviews not only puts her chances of being nominated into question, but completely obliterated her winning odds.

    I don’t even think King will be nominated. Just throwing the name out there. Fincher’s close to a lock for Director but if anyone else wins it’s Zhao.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    wolfali
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    #1203808916

    That being said, Biden is heavily favored to win the election, with the largest polling lead in American history, so I doubt that any of these scenarios will happen.

    Don’t jinx Biden-Harris

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    FairWeatherAffair
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    #1203808949

    If he refused to leave the White House if he lost, then it’s not like he’d just be allowed to do so. He’d be forced out in such a scenario.

    Not if he has the backing of the Secretary of Defense and the Joint Chiefs and half the populace haha.

    Anyway, death to Amerikkka!

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    JackO
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    #1203808962

    It’s never that obvious. What did Shape of Water and Green Book have to do with trump? If thats the argument for BP than it fits Hillbilly Elegy the most since that book was all about understanding the trump voter. Who knows what they changed from it but I can easily see that hitting the zeitgeist. Just look at how Borat is taking over despite meh reviews.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203809259

    Just look at how Borat is taking over despite meh reviews.

    85% on Rotten Tomatoes is not meh at all. That’s really good, especially for what’s essentially a prank comedy.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    JackO
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    #1203809792

    85% on Rotten Tomatoes is not meh at all. That’s really good, especially for what’s essentially a prank comedy.

    no serious person uses rottentomatoes as a gauge for movie quality anymore.

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    fyras19
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    #1203809877

    no serious person uses rottentomatoes as a gauge for movie quality anymore.

    It may not show the consensual quality of the movie, but it shows that it was well-reviewed, as said before especially for what it is.

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    Cordelia
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    #1203809920

    What did Shape of Water and Green Book have to do with trump?

    The former features discrimination against women, black people, and gay people prominently within an American government institution, and longing for something better.

    The latter, failed in its execution though it is, is about trying to find healing between different racial communities with understanding friendship.

    These films are not exactly subtle in the political factors.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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