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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Picture and Director

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    diego
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    #1203810603

    I’ve seen multiple people on Twitter who have seen the movie say that they absolutely loved it and are predicting it for many nominations but don’t see it winning Best Picture. I wonder what about the movie makes them say that.

    I’m thinking it’s probably because they think it’s not accessible enough.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203810646

    The most praise seems to be directed towards Mank’s Cinematography, Sound, Score, and Production Design. I’m thinking it wins all 4 easily now, plus Makeup. Director is probably a lock too based on how widely praised the technicals are.

    That being said, the editing and screenplay aren’t receiving as many remarks so I think we can safely say Chicago 7 is the frontrunner for both of those categories. They won’t want to give Mank too many Oscars.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203810698

    I’m thinking it’s probably because they think it’s not accessible enough.

    Or they recognize that Mank is a La La Land/Fury Road/Gravity type film that wins the most Oscars but not Best Picture.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203810899

    Nomadland is likely winning, it checks all the boxes. And I know a lot disagree but if it loses it’s not to a Netflix movie.

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    Bassett
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    #1203810902

    A lot of voters will be mad when Netflix inevitably dominates the nominations which could lead to some sabotage on the preferential ballot

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supp Actor - Daniel Kaluuya, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II

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    Cordelia
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    #1203810906

    A lot of voters will be mad when Netflix inevitably dominates the nominations which could lead to some sabotage on the preferential ballot

    This is why I have the (spicy take) theory that Roma wasn’t even second place that year, and Bohrap, BlackKklansman or even The Favourite might have been ahead. I imagine Roma got a lot of last place votes from sabotage alone.

    Last year, Netflix didn’t need to be sabotaged to lose – The Irishman and Marriage Story peaked on nomination morning.

    Netflix is likely getting multiple Best Picture nominees this year though, so how will coordination work? I think at least two of Mank/Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom/Hillbilly Elegy/Da 5 Bloods will get BP nominations and likely 3. With that many, it’s a little harder to sabotage, innit?

     

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    OccultCherry
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    #1203810910

    Mank always seemed like a film that would sweep the technicals but not above-the-line categories, so I’m not surprised. I just can’t see it win Picture or Director in 2021. If it’s not getting a lot of notices for it’s screenplay or general ability to resonate with audiences, I’m struggling to envisage a situation where it wins in both Picture or Director, although Director is more likely. I think Nomadland has this in the bag.

    FYC:

    Picture: Nomadland
    Director: Chloe Zhao
    Leading Actress: Frances McDormand
    Leading Actor: Anthony Hopkins
    Supporting Actress: Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Adapted Screenplay: The Father
    Original Screenplay: Minari

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    hopelesstar
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    #1203810912

    They just sabotage the one that has actually a shot of winning.

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    Cordelia
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    #1203810914

    So this year, unless Ma Rainey’s DELIVERS, is going to be a repeat of 2019, where Netflix has Best Picture nominees but no real path to a win.

    I think it’s between Nomadland and One Night In Miami now.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    Bassett
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    #1203810917

    This is why I have the (spicy take) theory that Roma wasn’t even second place that year, and Bohrap, BlackKklansman or even The Favourite might have been ahead. I imagine Roma got a lot of last place votes from sabotage alone. Last year, Netflix didn’t need to be sabotaged to lose – The Irishman and Marriage Story peaked on nomination morning. Netflix is likely getting multiple Best Picture nominees this year though, so how will coordination work? I think at least two of Mank/Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom/Hillbilly Elegy/Da 5 Bloods will get BP nominations and likely 3. With that many, it’s a little harder to sabotage, innit?

    I think Chicago 7 and Mank are getting sabotaged. The others will be filler nominees at best though I’m rooting for Ma Rainey to overperform in nominations

    I can think of a scenario where they rally behind Nomadland and rank Chicago 7 and Mank dead last

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supp Actor - Daniel Kaluuya, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II

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    OccultCherry
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    #1203810920

    So this year, unless Ma Rainey’s DELIVERS, is going to be a repeat of 2019, where Netflix has Best Picture nominees but no real path to a win.

    Are you implying that Ma Rainey has a shot at winning Picture?

    FYC:

    Picture: Nomadland
    Director: Chloe Zhao
    Leading Actress: Frances McDormand
    Leading Actor: Anthony Hopkins
    Supporting Actress: Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Adapted Screenplay: The Father
    Original Screenplay: Minari

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    Bassett
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    #1203810922

    Ma Rainey will only be an acting and costume player. SAG will probably love it but I’d be surprised if it won a single BP award anywhere

    I expect it to do better than Fences but not to the extent of being a Picture contender

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supp Actor - Daniel Kaluuya, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II

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    Cordelia
    Joined:
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    #1203810924

    Are you implying that Ma Rainey has a shot at winning Picture?

    I’m implying there’s a possible yet unlikely chance it’s the best film Netflix has in contention this year and could achieve a synthesis of crowd-pleasing appeal, lead acting win momentum, and urgency. It has the cast, it has the source material (which is great), and the trailers show they nailed the style.

    I am not implying Ma Rainey will win Best Picture though, I’m not that brave yet. Ask me in a week.

    For Your Consideration:

    Best Picture: Wolfwalkers

    Best Animated Feature: Wolfwalkers

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    OccultCherry
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    #1203810927

    I don’t have it winning but right now I think it could very easily that British film that upset and wins the Globe and then the BAFTA and then loses the Oscar like Three Billboards and 1917.

    If that happens, Hopkins wins the Oscar with ease.

    FYC:

    Picture: Nomadland
    Director: Chloe Zhao
    Leading Actress: Frances McDormand
    Leading Actor: Anthony Hopkins
    Supporting Actress: Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Adapted Screenplay: The Father
    Original Screenplay: Minari

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    gorman
    Joined:
    Dec 24th, 2017
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    #1203810930

    I’m not entirely sure I buy into the mass sabotaging of Netflix anymore; a lot of figures in the industry will have some ties to a streaming service production and greats/ purists like Scorsese, Fincher and the Coens have all worked with Netflix now. I agree there’ll be some reservations to them, and I have some myself, but I don’t think it’s widespread enough to be the force that buries a movie in the BP race.

    I think if people are mad about something dominating the season it’ll be a movie, not a studio. I’d argue that’s part of why we saw the outpouring of love for Parasite at the Oscars after 1917 looked to be completing a reasonable sweep over the beloved critics/ independent darling. I can see that being mirrored a bit this year; Mank dominates nominations and precursors – both above and below the line – but gets beaten out because there’s more love for Nomadland, the passion pick with audience love (TIFF AA) and no real reason to dislike it that consensus suggests is warmer and easier to love than Mank.

    Just on the first reactions to Mank – they don’t majorly change my thoughts about a Mank/ Nomadland race, but perhaps bump Nomadland a little further ahead than I already had it. I still think Mank will get 12-15 nominations and win Director, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Costumes, Hair/ Make-up, Production Design and possibly also Score and Supp. Actress.

     

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