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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Supporting Actor (Part 2)

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    David
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    #1203899027

    I’m allowing myself to be more optimistic about their taste this year, because of the circumstances they might be more open to smaller movies and indie fare than usual.

    Hopefully, but I reallyyyy doubt that will be the case this year even with all the circumstances given.

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    wolfali
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    #1203899036

    Hopefully, but I reallyyyy doubt that will be the case this year even with all the circumstances given.

    How so? Just out of interest.

    Because from the looks of it the high profile traditionally Oscar bait films seem to be exiting the conversation this year. Look at Ammonite or Tenet. In their place films like Sound of Metal and Pieces of a Woman (which in normal years would be reserved for Indie Spirit nominations and nothing else) are gathering steam.

    Not every indie film will get nominated (for example I love Radha Blank’s The 40 Year Old Version but it stands no chance) but they do seem to have more buzz this year. I mean the frontrunner is the indiest a film can get!

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Butz
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    #1203899057

    Just finished Sound of Metal. Paul Raci was astonishing. Maybe even better than Ahmed. He would definitely deserve a nomination

    FYC:

    Lead Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

    Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

    Supporting Actor: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    -----------------------------

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    David
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    #1203899063

    How so? Just out of interest. Because from the looks of it the high profile traditionally Oscar bait films seem to be exiting the conversation this year. Look at Ammonite or Tenet. In their place films like Sound of Metal and Pieces of a Woman (which in normal years would be reserved for Indie Spirit nominations and nothing else) are gathering steam. Not every indie film will get nominated (for example I love Radha Blank’s The 40 Year Old Version but it stands no chance) but they do seem to have more buzz this year. I mean the frontrunner is the indiest a film can get!

    I mean look at all of the previous nominees in pretty much all of the categories over the past couple of years. Indies don’t do particularly well when it comes to the big awards bodies, and even though we are in a weird year, I still think nothing will change in terms of what types of films get nominated. I do think they’re starting to open up their taste a bit more, but I don’t think we’re at that stage yet where we can start safely predicting indies to get in. ‘Pieces of a Woman’ is going to get some love in the acting categories, but even after watching ‘Sound of Metal’, I still think this will be the critics main push (the film and Ahmed), but it will end up getting snubbed in the long run (similar to Ethan Hawke). Ahmed will most likely get in at Bafta, CC, Spirits, but the rest is a question mark until Judas comes out and we see how Stanfield is. If Stanfield gets similar praise to Ahmed then they’re most likely going to go with the actor that is in the bigger film and most likely to get nominated elsewhere other than just Actor. If Stanfield is just okay, then I will feel a bit more confident in Ahmed, but I do think Hanks and Ben-Adir are still in the running.

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    wolfali
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    #1203899099

    I mean look at all of the previous nominees in pretty much all of the categories over the past couple of years. Indies don’t do particularly well when it comes to the big awards bodies, and even though we are in a weird year, I still think nothing will change in terms of what types of films get nominated. I do think they’re starting to open up their taste a bit more, but I don’t think we’re at that stage yet where we can start safely predicting indies to get in. ‘Pieces of a Woman’ is going to get some love in the acting categories, but even after watching ‘Sound of Metal’, I still think this will be the critics main push (the film and Ahmed), but it will end up getting snubbed in the long run (similar to Ethan Hawke). Ahmed will most likely get in at Bafta, CC, Spirits, but the rest is a question mark until Judas comes out and we see how Stanfield is. If Stanfield gets similar praise to Ahmed then they’re most likely going to go with the actor that is in the bigger film and most likely to get nominated elsewhere other than just Actor. If Stanfield is just okay, then I will feel a bit more confident in Ahmed, but I do think Hanks and Ben-Adir are still in the running.

    Well you say that but then we have Moonlight winning Best Picture even though Barry Jenkins was kind of an unknown director at the time. We just saw how Lady Bird’s Oscars success gave Greta Gerwig her a career as a director or how well American Beauty did at the Oscars.

    I understand where you coming from but indie films have been doing fairly well at the Oscars (especially more recently) and with lots of big films out of the way (i.e. no DuneWest Side StoryThe Last DuelRespect) that films like Sound of Metal stand a better chance. I mean in an ordinary year we might not even have been predicting Colman for a win so I feel like it’s quite clear indies have a better advantage in viewership and awards chances this year.

    But that’s just my opinion.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    DaKardii
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    #1203900319

    END OF WEEK 13 PREDICTIONS

    Best Supporting Actor

    1. Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
    2. Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
    3. Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
    4. Lance Henriksen (Falling)
    5. David Strathairn (Nomadland)
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    wolfali
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    #1203900440

    Shia LaBeouf has officially moved to Supporting.

    https://film.netflixawards.com/pieces-of-a-woman

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Dan Jo
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    Aug 16th, 2017
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    #1203900972

    Just finished Sound of Metal. Paul Raci was astonishing. Maybe even better than Ahmed. He would definitely deserve a nomination

    Will this race be like Raci vs. Kaluuya?

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    wolfali
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    #1203900980

    Will this race be like Raci Kaluuya vs. Kaluuya?

    Uh huh.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203901160

    Precursor and Oscar nomination predictions for Supporting Actor

    Globes

    • Daniel Kaluuya
    • Bill Murray
    • Leslie Odom Jr.
    • Frank Langelia
    • Tom Pelphrey

    SAG

    • Daniel Kaluuya
    • Bill Murray
    • Leslie Odom Jr.
    • Shia Lebouef
    • David Straithiarn

    CC

    • Daniel Kaluuya
    • Bill Murray
    • Leslie Odom Jr.
    • David Straitharn
    • Frank Langelia
    • Yahya Abdul-Mateen
    • Mark Rylance

    BAFTA

    • Daniel Kaluuya
    • Bill Murray
    • Leslie Odom Jr.
    • Mark Rylance
    • Tom Pelphrey
    • Richard E. Grant

    Oscars

    • Daniel Kaluuya
    • Bill Murray
    • Leslie Odom Jr.
    • David Straithairn
    • Tom Pelphrey

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    marty
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    #1203901214

    Will this race be like Raci vs. Kaluuya?

    We can dream.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203901221

    I really feel like Tom Pelphrey is going to follow the Sam Rockwell path for some reason: Globe, BAFTA, and Oscar nominations. Not exactly sure why.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    JackO
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    Jun 2nd, 2011
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    #1203901308

    No Chicago 7 actors is bold choice lol

    If there is anywhere where Chicago 7 is breaking through is the actors.

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    Dorsey
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    Dec 31st, 2017
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    #1203901310

    I really feel like Tom Pelphrey is going to follow the Sam Rockwell path for some reason: Globe, BAFTA, and Oscar nominations. Not exactly sure why.

    He made so little impact in Mank I had to google him to figure out what you were talking about. If he gets in….put your bets on Mank for BP I guess.

    FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
    Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
    Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    Dan Backslide
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    Apr 24th, 2016
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    #1203901319

    I really feel like Tom Pelphrey is going to follow the Sam Rockwell path for some reason: Globe, BAFTA, and Oscar nominations. Not exactly sure why.

    I really can’t see that. Pelphrey only just recently had his big break, while Rockwell was well established and respected in the industry for a long time, and had just swept the previous year.

    And unlike Rockwell, who really only had Carell in a forgettable role, Pelphrey has plenty of internal competition from Dance, Howard, and Burke.

    I can see one of them slipping in somewhere, probably Dance since he’s the biggest name and reportedly the one they’re pushing (God, that post made me think he had so much more to do), but I don’t think they’ll overcome the split, and I don’t imagine one of them will be a consistent presence at the major awards.

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