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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Supporting Actor (Part 2)

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    Dan Backslide
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    Netflix’s FYC website lists their supporting actor contenders in this order: Sacha Baron Cohen Frank Langella Yahya Abdul-Mateen II Eddie Redmayne Jeremy Strong Mark Rylance Michael Keaton Joseph Gordon-Levitt John Carroll Lynch Alex Sharp This list doesn’t seem to be in an identifiable order (it’s not alphabetical) so could this be in order of priority? If so, I’d expect SBC to be the only cast member to make it in. Any theories?

    I think it’s just a completely random order. They wouldn’t have Rylance below Redmayne and Strong otherwise. Anyway, the order shouldn’t really matter, people won’t vote for the first actor from the film they’ll see, they’ll vote for their favorite.

    But it is an odd order. Not sure why they didn’t just put it alphabetically.

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    marty
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    #1203898793

    https://film.netflixawards.com/rebecca The existence of this page is sending me 😭

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    wolfali
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    https://film.netflixawards.com/rebecca The existence of this page is sending me 😭

    They’re campaigning for the Razzies gurl!

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Dorsey
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    #1203898820

    Raci deserves to be in this lineup, especially more than a second Chicago 7 filler spot.

    Actually I’m putting him in. Raci, Kaluuya, and Tucci in all at 100/1, pray for me.

    FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
    Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
    Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    marty
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    #1203898858

    Raci deserves to be in this lineup, especially more than a second Chicago 7 filler spot. Actually I’m putting him in. Raci, Kaluuya, and Tucci in all at 100/1, pray for me.

    Omg twins

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    David
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    #1203898892

    Raci was probably the best part of ‘Sound of Metal’ and I think he totally deserves a nom, but I don’t see him getting in anywhere other than CC and Spirits.

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    Dorsey
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    #1203898929

    I’m allowing myself to be more optimistic about their taste this year, because of the circumstances they might be more open to smaller movies and indie fare than usual.

    Or they could default to the big budget Netflix stuff. Still got a long way to go.

    FYC: Riz Ahmed + Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
    Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always)
    Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    Heptapod
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    #1203898987

    The way I’ve been checking pretty much every day to see if Kaluuya was going to get switched into supporting and then I’m busy for one weekend and miss the 100/1 odds on him

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    wolfali
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    #1203899009

    The way I’ve been checking pretty much every day to see if Kaluuya was going to get switched into supporting and then I’m busy for one weekend and miss the 100/1 odds on him

    This was me forgetting to put him in for 100/1 odds at the Globes 🙁

    Glad I got it for SAG and the Oscars though.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    wolfali
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    #1203899011

    I’m allowing myself to be more optimistic about their taste this year, because of the circumstances they might be more open to smaller movies and indie fare than usual. Or they could default to the big budget Netflix stuff. Still got a long way to go.

    This is what I’m thinking. Hence why I have Promising Young Woman in Picture right now.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    David
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    #1203899027

    I’m allowing myself to be more optimistic about their taste this year, because of the circumstances they might be more open to smaller movies and indie fare than usual.

    Hopefully, but I reallyyyy doubt that will be the case this year even with all the circumstances given.

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    wolfali
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    Hopefully, but I reallyyyy doubt that will be the case this year even with all the circumstances given.

    How so? Just out of interest.

    Because from the looks of it the high profile traditionally Oscar bait films seem to be exiting the conversation this year. Look at Ammonite or Tenet. In their place films like Sound of Metal and Pieces of a Woman (which in normal years would be reserved for Indie Spirit nominations and nothing else) are gathering steam.

    Not every indie film will get nominated (for example I love Radha Blank’s The 40 Year Old Version but it stands no chance) but they do seem to have more buzz this year. I mean the frontrunner is the indiest a film can get!

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Butz
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    #1203899057

    Just finished Sound of Metal. Paul Raci was astonishing. Maybe even better than Ahmed. He would definitely deserve a nomination

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    David
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    #1203899063

    How so? Just out of interest. Because from the looks of it the high profile traditionally Oscar bait films seem to be exiting the conversation this year. Look at Ammonite or Tenet. In their place films like Sound of Metal and Pieces of a Woman (which in normal years would be reserved for Indie Spirit nominations and nothing else) are gathering steam. Not every indie film will get nominated (for example I love Radha Blank’s The 40 Year Old Version but it stands no chance) but they do seem to have more buzz this year. I mean the frontrunner is the indiest a film can get!

    I mean look at all of the previous nominees in pretty much all of the categories over the past couple of years. Indies don’t do particularly well when it comes to the big awards bodies, and even though we are in a weird year, I still think nothing will change in terms of what types of films get nominated. I do think they’re starting to open up their taste a bit more, but I don’t think we’re at that stage yet where we can start safely predicting indies to get in. ‘Pieces of a Woman’ is going to get some love in the acting categories, but even after watching ‘Sound of Metal’, I still think this will be the critics main push (the film and Ahmed), but it will end up getting snubbed in the long run (similar to Ethan Hawke). Ahmed will most likely get in at Bafta, CC, Spirits, but the rest is a question mark until Judas comes out and we see how Stanfield is. If Stanfield gets similar praise to Ahmed then they’re most likely going to go with the actor that is in the bigger film and most likely to get nominated elsewhere other than just Actor. If Stanfield is just okay, then I will feel a bit more confident in Ahmed, but I do think Hanks and Ben-Adir are still in the running.

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    wolfali
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    I mean look at all of the previous nominees in pretty much all of the categories over the past couple of years. Indies don’t do particularly well when it comes to the big awards bodies, and even though we are in a weird year, I still think nothing will change in terms of what types of films get nominated. I do think they’re starting to open up their taste a bit more, but I don’t think we’re at that stage yet where we can start safely predicting indies to get in. ‘Pieces of a Woman’ is going to get some love in the acting categories, but even after watching ‘Sound of Metal’, I still think this will be the critics main push (the film and Ahmed), but it will end up getting snubbed in the long run (similar to Ethan Hawke). Ahmed will most likely get in at Bafta, CC, Spirits, but the rest is a question mark until Judas comes out and we see how Stanfield is. If Stanfield gets similar praise to Ahmed then they’re most likely going to go with the actor that is in the bigger film and most likely to get nominated elsewhere other than just Actor. If Stanfield is just okay, then I will feel a bit more confident in Ahmed, but I do think Hanks and Ben-Adir are still in the running.

    Well you say that but then we have Moonlight winning Best Picture even though Barry Jenkins was kind of an unknown director at the time. We just saw how Lady Bird’s Oscars success gave Greta Gerwig her a career as a director or how well American Beauty did at the Oscars.

    I understand where you coming from but indie films have been doing fairly well at the Oscars (especially more recently) and with lots of big films out of the way (i.e. no DuneWest Side StoryThe Last DuelRespect) that films like Sound of Metal stand a better chance. I mean in an ordinary year we might not even have been predicting Colman for a win so I feel like it’s quite clear indies have a better advantage in viewership and awards chances this year.

    But that’s just my opinion.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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