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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Supporting Actor (Part 3)

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    Chris Beachum
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    #1203987374

    Continue in Part 3.

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    wattsgold
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    #1203987386

    21 thread difference between this and Best Actress lol

    Turman better come through with that nomination. That’s all I care about in this category.

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    wolfali
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    #1203987390

    Academy Award winner Daniel Day-Lewis
    Academy Award winner Daniel Kay-Lewis
    Academy Award winner Daniel Kay-L
    Academy Award winner Daniel Kal-Y
    Academy Award winner Daniel Kaluuya

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    alittle03
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    #1203987410

    OMG, the last Supporting Actor thread went on for exactly two months.

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    LLLhawks
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    #1203987516

    Still waiting for that last minute news that Yeun is moving to supporting for Minari.

    But for now…….

    Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
    Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
    Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
    Mark Rylance, The Trial of Chicago 7

    and idk… maybe Bo Burnham for Promising Young Woman.

    I just love movies. And awards.

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    TVLUVAH
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    #1203987527

    Mark my words~ Daniel Kaluuya is winning Supporting Actor. He is brilliant in “Judas and the Black Messiah”. I loved Leslie Odom Jr. in “One Night in Miami” as well, but Kaluuya just slays that role.

    Here’s how I see the lineup now:
    Sasha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
    Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
    Leslie Odom Jr, One Night in Miami
    Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
    Stanley Tucci, Supernova

    ~ However, I could easily see Frank Langella (Chicago 7), Mark Rylance (Chicago 7), Glynn Turman (Ma Rainey), Chadwick Boseman (Da5Bloods) or Yahya Abdul-Mateen (Chicago 7) get in… That is one stacked category.

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    Riley Chow
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    I have had Daniel Kaluuya winning since he moved down to supporting.  He is a likeable guy, it seems like a loud performance, it seems like resonant material and this category lacks a frontrunner.

    Just from reading the tealeaves, I previously had Sacha Baron Cohen winning.  Then I saw his performance.  You try to separate your own opinions from your predictions, but nobody is perfect.  It seems that people here agree with me too, so the case for him being an also-ran or potential snub seemed legitimate.  But then he handily bested his internal competition.  I thought that there would be some kind of a fight, but it was decisive, pretty much out of the gate with the critic awards.  He still has everything going for him on paper, which is why I was predicting him for the win in the first place, so if Kaluuya falters, he will take it.

    I am concerned that Judas and the Black Messiah is screening too late for SAG and just too late in general, plus it does have a wildcard factor, whereas we know that The Trial of the Chicago 7 is going to do well, well, everywhere.  And as much as Kaluuya is a likeable guy, the academy might just find him too young and people might just rather give it to someone more in the club, like how Brad Pitt won last year or how Frances McDormand held off Margot Robbie.  There is not really any reason to doubt that the sweeps are stopping after the last few years, so if Baron Cohen gets on a roll, he could be unstoppable.  Maybe I am predicting more with my heart than my head here.

    Leslie Odom Jr. will be nominated, but One Night in Miami… has kind of been the big loser in these year-end critic shenanigans.  It got good reviews from critics (83 Metascore), but then it did not factor into their top-ten lists or the Best Picture nominations at the regional awards like at all.  I know that Mank has been dropping, but we knew that Mank was in trouble from its reviews.  And it has actually held up considerably, hovering around tenth in the aggregates of top-tens and Best Picture citations.  One Night in Miami… is outside the top thirty in the top-ten aggregate.  Everyone seems to approve of it (98% Tomatometer), but it lacks passion.  Anyway, this apathy has extended to Odom, who keeps losing not only to the critics’ pick, but also a terrible accent and a posthumous cameo.

    It remains to be seen if Paul Raci can get nominated at any of the major precursors, but the field is so scattered below him that he has essentially become a lock for the Oscar nomination.  Dominating the critic awards and then losing all of the televised ones is nothing new, per Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project, although I suppose that we should not count him out or we will have really learned nothing from writing off Mark Rylance, another quiet performance from an older, first-time nominee.

    Smart money on the remaining slot is definitely Chadwick Boseman.  I cannot bring myself to predict him because he makes too much sense as someone who hits SAG and misses the Oscar.  This is very much a performance that people are going to use to round out their ballots, which gets penalized in Oscar balloting specifically.  However, what I have not properly accounted for is how weak this year is.  A contender that normally places seventh probably would place fifth this year.

    Bill Murray has a perfect storm of factors to hit all of the precursors and then miss at the end, but he also could just run out of steam much earlier than that.  I previously had David Strathairn with reservations, but I had to give into them once I saw Nomadland.  I have never had Stanley Tucci because that was weird.  Glynn Turman has his one win and his one runner-up placement, but that strikes me very much as those groups going out of their way to boost him because they know that he is not happening.  I guess that I should mention The Trial of the Chicago 7 because it seemed like it might have been able to get a second earlier in the season, but there has not been proper consensus on the second and it is really hard to get a second anyway, so that ship has sailed.  I feel so clever for eliminating all of these options, but I am actually the fool because I now have an empty slot, so I have thrown in Demián Bichir as a placeholder. You want the Oscars to be competitive enough that people get pushed out (and they usually are; just ask Song Kang Ho and Willem Dafoe about last year), but they are going to have to pull someone from the next tier in this year instead.

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    Luca
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    I’ve had Kaluuya in #1 since he dropped down to supporting, but I am not at all confident — and I agree with you, Riley, that late screenings could hurt him at SAG. I almost feel like he’ll be the internet’s darling, but Sacha Baron Cohen will arise quite easily as the industry favorite. His hurdle will be winning the Globe, because they can also give it to him for Borat 2, which seems more likely — unless, of course, they want him to win the Oscar.

    A Fervent Believer in the Church of Viola Davis

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    Sir Shaw
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    and idk… maybe Bo Burnham for Promising Young Woman.

    He’ll probably happen at BAFTA is the film is well loved enough. They’ve got a habit of nominating the highlighted supporting player when no one else does

     

    • Wes Bentley — American Pie
    • Cate Blanchett – The Talented Mr. Riply
    • Thora Birch – American Beauty
    • Oliver Reed – Gladitor
    • Eddie Murphy – Shrek
    • Paul Bettany – Master and Commander
    • Laura Linney – Mystic River
    • Phil Davis – Vera Drake
    • Michael Sheen – The Queen
    • Freida Pinto – Slumdog Millionaire
    • Alfred Molina – An Education
    • Barbara Hershey – Black Swan
    • Rene Russo – Nightcrawler
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    Victor
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    #1203987680

    I don’t see an alternative to Daniel here, maybe SBC but that would be shocking

    Leslie Odom Jr. is winning Song 1000%, I doubt he will win 2 at the same night.

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    JakeT
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    #1203987684

    I think, and hope, Daniel will take it as whilst I haven’t seen Judas I can all but guarantee his performance will be better than SBC, who does nothing remarkable. I also feel Daniel has lots of industry fans from GO that would serve him well this time round.

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    Fletcher
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    #1203987812

    Wes Bentley — American Pie

    Wait.

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    wolfali
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    I doo think that if Chicago 7 gets a second nomination it’s easily going to be Mark Rylance. He’s a previous winner, in a BP nominee and possible frontrunner and he also strikes me as someone who garners a lot of respect from the industry and his peers.

    With regards to Baron Cohen (and I’ve said this one the Globes thread) whilst I am confident he’s getting in at SAG, BAFTA and the Oscars I am on the fence about the Globes. Yes he has a good record there but we just saw Scarlett Johansson also miss there for Jojo Rabbit (a big Best Picture contender) last year when she was nominated for Marriage Story and like Baron Cohen she had a solid record there. I think he either gets snubbed at the Globes for Chicago 7 or for Borat.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    SN
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    #1203987829

    Judas is already getting screened for SAG and voting won’t close until Feb 02. I don’t think it’ll have a screening problem.

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    Jasmine is French
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    #1203987895

    Just watched One Night in Miami. Though the acting was great, I thought the movie was a little bit on the boring side. Aldis and Kingsley were the stand outs for me

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