Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Supporting Actor (Part 4)

[DaKardii Joined: Jan 12th, 2018 Topics: 117 Posts: 1532 View Predictions]

#1204060132

I’m changing my predictions based on which precursors nominations have or haven’t happened.

Locks

• Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
• Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
• Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)

Fighting for the last 2 spots

• Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods)
• Jared Leto (The Little Things)
• Bill Murray (On the Rocks)

[Marrowbone Joined: Dec 12th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 354 View Predictions]

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Just to let you know how adorable this kid is. From Alan Kim’s interview with W Magazine 😀

⭐Best Actress - Carey Mulligan

⭐Best Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung

[walkinuniverse Joined: May 5th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 188 View Predictions]

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1. Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)

2. Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami)

3. Sacha Baron-Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

4. Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

5. Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)

[Lucas Joined: Jun 24th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 713 View Predictions]

#1204063130

Predicting a Daniel sweep. Unless Netflix buys them, I just can’t imagine a single human being watching that Sacha Baron Cohen’s performance and saying to themselves: “yeah! that deserves an award”

FYC

Best Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

Best Actress: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

[Gabarnes43 Joined: Jan 6th, 2018 Topics: 54 Posts: 2441 View Predictions]

#1204063201

If SBC wins for this, I will physically be sick.

6th Place WGA 2021
12th Place VES 2021
61st Place BAFTA nominations 2021

[Skyler Lindquist Joined: Oct 1st, 2016 Topics: 1 Posts: 66 View Predictions]

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I just got this weird sudden instinct about Bill Murray being this year’s Kathy Bates…

[Lucas Joined: Jun 24th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 713 View Predictions]

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Skyler_Lindquist wrote:

I just got this weird sudden instinct about Bill Murray being this year’s Kathy Bates…

The last two spots are between Boseman, Raci, Murray and… Leto

I don’t think Boseman is completely locked. Let’s pray for Murray 🙏

FYC

Best Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

Best Actress: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

[JV Joined: Dec 31st, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 559 View Predictions]

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Skyler_Lindquist wrote:

I just got this weird sudden instinct about Bill Murray being this year’s Kathy Bates…

Let’s stop comparing everyone to Kathy Bates.

Richard Jewell made AFI + NBR, so it had enough support. On the Rocks was a flop.

And we can’t rule out the fact that Bates had 3 nominations (and one win) before, while Bill Murray was never the Academy’s favorite.

Lucas wrote:

The last two spots are between Boseman, Raci, Murray and… Leto I don’t think Boseman is completely locked. Let’s pray for Murray

Watch as Mark Rylance gets in BAFTA and rise as phoenix to snatch that Oscar nomination.

[SN Joined: Dec 7th, 2014 Topics: 17 Posts: 2741 View Predictions]

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Rylance is not happening, not even if he somehow gets a BAFTA nod. He needed SAG.

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 272 Posts: 21284 View Predictions]

#1204063811

Rylance could get in at BAFTA because of the jury system whilst Sacha Baron Cohen is snubbed.

FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

[Eddy Q Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 23 Posts: 5065 View Predictions]

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SN wrote:

Rylance is not happening, not even if he somehow gets a BAFTA nod. He needed SAG.

I don’t think he’ll get in, but it isn’t the lack of a SAG nom that bothers me; the main issue is that it’s almost impossible for two actors from the same film to be nominated in the same category unless both have decent precursor runs (Woody Harrelson missed the Globes for Three Billboards, but did score SAG and BAFTA noms). Either the consensus around one actor takes him all the way, or there’s a ‘replacement’ at the last hurdle (Paul Scofield over John Turturro for Quiz Show, Michael Shannon over Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals). A couple of months ago I thought maybe Rylance could displace Baron Cohen, but now I think the buzz surrounding the latter is too strong.

[walkinuniverse Joined: May 5th, 2020 Topics: 0 Posts: 188 View Predictions]

#1204064392

Michael Shannon nominated at the Oscars and snubbing Aaron Taylor-Johnson who won the Globe for Nocturnal Animals is one of the wildest stunt of the Supporting category.

Could it happen this year with SBC and Mark Rylance?

[SN Joined: Dec 7th, 2014 Topics: 17 Posts: 2741 View Predictions]

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Eddy Q wrote:

I don’t think he’ll get in, but it isn’t the lack of a SAG nom that bothers me; the main issue is that it’s almost impossible for two actors from the same film to be nominated in the same category unless both have decent precursor runs (Woody Harrelson missed the Globes for Three Billboards, but did score SAG and BAFTA noms). Either the consensus around one actor.

So it is the lack of a SAG nom that bothers you.

[SN Joined: Dec 7th, 2014 Topics: 17 Posts: 2741 View Predictions]

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walkinuniverse wrote:

Michael Shannon nominated at the Oscars and snubbing Aaron Taylor-Johnson who won the Globe for Nocturnal Animals is one of the wildest stunt of the Supporting category.

Could it happen this year with SBC and Mark Rylance?

Absolutely not. SBC is much stronger than Aaron Taylor-Johnson was that year.

[Eddy Q Joined: Oct 13th, 2012 Topics: 23 Posts: 5065 View Predictions]

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SN wrote:

So it is the lack of a SAG nom that bothers you.

My point is that a performance like Rylance’s might have had an easier time getting in without a SAG nom if it weren’t for the internal competition. I think we basically agree though.