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February 23, 2021 at 10:50 am #1204056946
Outside of maybe Film Editing, The Father doesn’t really have a chance of winning in any other category. So a win for Colman would be consolation for the entire film. And the fact that her performance is genuinely good…unlike some others 😒
It’ll be hard not to think in this mentality if it is given a best picture nomination, although I think Anthony’s chances are being downplayed a little too much by some, his performance is just too good & arguably the best of his entire legendary career.
FYC OSCARS : THE FATHER IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP SUPP ACTRESS - OLIVIA COLMAN, ACTOR - ANTHONY HOPKINS), VANESSA KIRBY FOR PIECES OF A WOMAN
February 23, 2021 at 10:54 am #1204056963haven’t seen an acting category so messy and aggravating in my life (which is 12 years of following the oscars)
February 23, 2021 at 11:29 am #1204057091It’ll be hard not to think in this mentality if it is given a best picture nomination, although I think Anthony’s chances are being downplayed a little too much by some, his performance is just too good & arguably the best of his entire legendary career.
Also, nowhere is it said that “The Father” is required to be recognized anywhere with wins.
February 23, 2021 at 11:38 am #1204057101I feel like it’s seriously possible that we will have:
GG – Seyfried
CC – Youn
SAG – Close
BAFTA – Colman
Oscar – ? Who would be most likely in that scenario? Given similarities in voting members it would feel like it would be Close v Colman again here.
If Colman takes the Globe over Seyfried then I would say she has the Oscar.
This is my best attempt to make this category make sense. Does this sound right? Or has this category driven me over the edge…
February 23, 2021 at 11:45 am #1204057112I feel like it’s seriously possible that we will have: GG – Seyfried CC – Youn SAG – Close BAFTA – Colman Oscar – ? Who would be most likely in that scenario? Given similarities in voting members it would feel like it would be Close v Colman again here. If Colman takes the Globe over Seyfried then I would say she has the Oscar. This is my best attempt to make this category make sense. Does this sound right? Or has this category driver me over the edge…
Since the CCs are well you know… I think they will tie Youn with a frontrunner (Glenn if she wins Sunday) since they do sometimes pick the critics favorite, but also like to sheep and pick the already-winners.
February 23, 2021 at 11:49 am #1204057122I don’t think Glenn will win SAG again. I think they’ll go for either Youn or Bakalova.
FYC
Best Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)
Best Actress: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
February 23, 2021 at 11:51 am #1204057126I don’t think Glenn will win SAG again. I think they’ll go for either Youn or Bakalova.
Hopefully but not expecting it. The love for Minari in SAG helps though.
February 23, 2021 at 11:52 am #1204057129I hoenstly think Bakalova is getting snubbed. I don’t agree with it, but it feels like a strong possiblity.
February 23, 2021 at 11:58 am #1204057135I feel like it’s seriously possible that we will have:
GG – Seyfried
CC – Youn
SAG – Close
BAFTA – Colman
Oscar – ? Who would be most likely in that scenario? Given similarities in voting members it would feel like it would be Close v Colman again here.
If Colman takes the Globe over Seyfried then I would say she has the Oscar.
This is my best attempt to make this category make sense. Does this sound right? Or has this category driven me over the edge…
Hmmmm Interesting.
This is lowkey becoming an unpredictable and entertaining race at the same time.
SAY NO TO SWEEPS.
Imagine if Bakalova wins the Oscar tho without winning any televised precursor. Her biggest hurdle now is the nomination but I think if she gets in, we may have to consider a Bakalova win. Although, I still think it’s unlikely but I won’t rule her out yet until I see the BAFTA nominations.
February 23, 2021 at 12:00 pm #1204057138I feel like it’s seriously possible that we will have: GG – Seyfried CC – Youn SAG – Close BAFTA – Colman Oscar – ? Who would be most likely in that scenario? Given similarities in voting members it would feel like it would be Close v Colman again here. If Colman takes the Globe over Seyfried then I would say she has the Oscar. This is my best attempt to make this category make sense. Does this sound right? Or has this category driven me over the edge…
The last time something like this happened, the BAFTA winner won the Oscar. Tilda Swinton for Michael Clayton.
There’s a scenario where Colman is the frontrunner:
Bakalova getting BAFTA but missing the Oscars.
Close missing BAFTA.
So Colman will be the only nominee with nominations across BAFTA, SAG, GG and CC, which, since 2012, has been a solid indicator of who’s winning, with Regina King being the only exception.
February 23, 2021 at 12:05 pm #1204057147Glenn is not missing the BAFTA nomination.
February 23, 2021 at 12:07 pm #1204057152GG – Seyfried or Colman
CC – Bakalova or Youn
SAG – Youn or Close
BAFTA – Colman
Oscar – Youn or ColmanFebruary 23, 2021 at 12:08 pm #1204057155In a normal year, yes I’d agree Bakalova is getting snubbed. But she has a lot politically going for her provocative performance. Firstly Trump lost. And secondly what her character experiences is more relevant than ever, in the year of Promising Young Woman being a hit she is ironically riding the wave of a movie she isn’t even starring in, along with her own.
FYC:
Vitalina Varela, Vitalina Varela (Actress)
Andrea Riseborough, Karim Saleh, Possessor/Luxor (Actress, Actor)
Rosamund Pike, Peter Dinklage, I Care a Lot (Actress, Supporting Actor)
Jim Broadbent, Helen Mirren, The Duke (Actor, Supporting Actress)
Sophia Loren, Abril Zamora, The Life Ahead (Actress, Supporting Actress)
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman (Actress)February 23, 2021 at 12:10 pm #1204057157Hmmmm Interesting.
This is lowkey becoming an unpredictable and entertaining race at the same time.
SAY NO TO SWEEPS.
Imagine if Bakalova wins the Oscar tho without winning any televised precursor. Her biggest hurdle now is the nomination but I think if she gets in, we may have to consider a Bakalova win. Although, I still think it’s unlikely but I won’t rule her out yet until I see the BAFTA nominations.
Bakalova is the heavy favorite to win Comedy/Musical actress Globe on Sunday. If she does that and nails her acceptance speech, she’ll raise her profile considerably leading up to next month.
February 23, 2021 at 12:13 pm #1204057164In a normal year, yes I’d agree Bakalova is getting snubbed. But she has a lot politically going for her provocative performance. Firstly Trump lost. And secondly what her character experiences is more relevant than ever, in the year of Promising Young Woman being a hit she is ironically riding the wave of a movie she isn’t even starring in, along with her own.
I keep saying this – yes it’s a very unoscary and well “unclassy” performance but that Rudy scene! I’m not sure if voters will resist that temptation
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