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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 11)

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    Aimerarrow
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    #1204080559

    I think Youn has Critics Choice in the bag. I mean she should. SAG would be her next win. As for BAFTA, it’s difficult to predict considering how racist BAFTA is. I could see Colman winning there but Youn ends up taking the Oscar. (BAFTA gave it to JLAW but Lupita took the Oscar)

    I’ve said it before but I while I feel good about Youn in CC/SAG, the bafta body (this is not voted by a jury) didn’t even vote Minari in the longlisted Best Film category. She isn’t winning BAFTA, that’s forsure.

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    JV
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    #1204080571

    This is probably the first time the Golden Globe winner wasn’t nominated for Critics Choice.

    I guess it’s Youn’s to lose. They gave Minari 10 nominations.

    I wouldn’t be surpised if Bakalova won, though. It would be an attempt to keep her in the race.

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    SN
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    #1204080596

    Youn needs a BAFTA nom, and I’m not sure she’s gonna have it.

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    wolfali
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    #1204080624

    Youn needs a BAFTA nom, and I’m not sure she’s gonna have it.

    I think Youn will most certainly get in at BAFTA with the jury. The performance is one of the ones I can see the jury gravitating towards and their mandate is to be as diverse as possible in their picks.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Aimerarrow
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    #1204080636

    I think Youn will most certainly get in at BAFTA with the jury. The performance is one of the ones I can see the jury gravitating towards and their mandate is to be as diverse as possible in their picks.

    Not to mention she’s the only POC out of all our “frontrunners” for the nom (which is like what 8 women [and child] now? Lol)

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    Aimerarrow
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    #1204080658

    I will also say though, BAFTA nominations are pretty useless this year as a precursor.

    The wins will be telling but with a small jury seeking diversity and inclusion choosing the nominees (note that the nominations are announced a day before Oscar voting ends), I wouldn’t put too much water in a snub/surprise nomination.

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    ClairesCrown
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    #1204080665

    I will also say though, BAFTA nominations are pretty useless this year.

    Agreed, it’s the BAFTA win that’ll be crucial this year

    FYC EMMYS: THE CROWN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. OLIVIA COLMAN - D. ACTRESS & HBC - D. SUPP. ACTRESS) & IT’S A SIN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. LYDIA WEST - LIM. ACTRESS & KEELEY HAWES - LIM. SUPP. ACTRESS) & I MAY DESTROY YOU IN ALL CATEGORIES

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    JackO
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    #1204080818

    I’m not predicting Close to win but HFPA isn’t industry. Her loss does not mean the actual industry (AMPAS specifically) doesn’t care for it.

    The same people saying Close is gone are real quiet about Carey Mulligan right now.

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    JackO
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    #1204080845

    Here’s how Ellen Burstyn can still win!

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    crabbie
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    #1204080858

    Here’s how Ellen Burstyn can still win!

    How sad Burstyn isn’t even predicted to get a nomination anymore. I had thought she would be locked for one since she had that “oldest actor to be an Oscar nominee” narrative but that didnt turn out well. Nobody cares for Pieces of a Woman except for Kirby’s performance.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Clement
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    #1204081522

    Things could turn but I thought Glenn losing the globe was bad, but making it into the Razzie shortlist may be the final nail in her coffin. I doubt she’ll even get nominated, it’s a bad performance in a bad movie, like I said before if she couldn’t win for her tour de force performance in The wife -with all that campaigning with her puppy, mentioning at every opportunity that she was the most nominated actor without a win- then HE wont get her the trophy

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    Keth
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    #1204081567

    Things could turn but I thought Glenn losing the globe was bad, but making it into the Razzie shortlist may be the final nail in her coffin. I doubt she’ll even get nominated, it’s a bad performance in a bad movie, like I said before if she couldn’t win for her tour de force performance in The wife -with all that campaigning with her puppy, mentioning at every opportunity that she was the most nominated actor without a win- then HE wont get her the trophy

    I’m not a fan of Hillbilly Elegy = not at all. But, I do think Glenn Close might still get nominated and possibly win. I would bet she has enough fans in the Oscar academy to at least get a nomination. Once she gets the nod, then the narrative becomes ‘can we vote again to not give a million time nominated legend actress’ the Oscar?” The voters may feel obligated to vote for her in a not so good movie or she may go the Peter O’Toole and Thelma Ritter path. Well, if Close gets nominated then she’s beaten Ritter and tied O’Toole for the most nominated actor without an Oscar award. Personally, without seeing “The Father”, Alyssa Joy Powell in “Judas and the Black Messiah” deserves some Oscar best supporting actress conversation, but unfortunately I’m the only one whispering her name.

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    rydemac
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    #1204081591

    <p style=”text-align: center;”>

    Glenn has no chance of winning anymore. She absolutely needed that Globe win. Her losing the Globe is proof that the industry doesn’t care enough to reward her for a panned performance in a panned movie. SAG and CC and especially BAFTA will go with someone else who has actual passion, probably Youn or Colman but maybe Bakalova. And the Oscars probably won’t even bother nominating Close if she has no chance at winning. That would just be needlessly cruel.

    But the HFPA isn’t really “industry”, they’re absolutely not Academy voters. A Globe win for Close would have been great for publicity but looking at the buzz on the overall ceremony (ratings were down 60%!), I’m not sure if it would have helped too much anyway. And Jodie’s win IMO did not really benefit Youn, it benefited Jodie in that she’s probably close to a lock for a nom now.</p>

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    wolfali
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    #1204081638

    BAFTA Noms Predix:

    – Niamh Algar, Calm with Horses
    – Kosar Ali, Rocks
    – Olivia Colman, The Father
    – Jennifer Ehle, Saint Maud
    – Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
    – Yuh-jung Youn, Minari

    Spoilers: Maria Bakalova, Ashley Madekwe, Helena Zengel

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    SN
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    #1204082003

    Glenn Close will be nominated for BAFTA and will surprise the pundits again.

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