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Frances McDormand won VERY recently. That’s what makes her win less likely than Foster’s.
Explain Christoph Waltz for Django then, why don’t you?
Even then, there’s still not that *push* to give Jodie her third.
Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung
#StopAsianHate
This aged poorly haha
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")
In terms of winning, I think Youn is out in front. After that? Not sure. Colman, Seyfried, and Close (if she gets nominated) all have various barriers but are more or less in the same boat after just losing to Foster. Not really seeing a path to victory for Jodie Foster.
I feel very confident for the win that it’s Youn first, Foster second and Colman third.
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")
What happens if Youn wins SAG and Jodie wins BAFTA?
What happens if Youn wins SAG and Jodie wins BAFTA?
Go with the one whose film might win Best Picture
Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung
#StopAsianHate
What happens if Youn wins SAG and Jodie wins BAFTA?
Tossup.
I would give the edge to Youn on the basis that Minari is the bigger player and more Academy members will have seen it but the thing that is quite confusing is that I think the British bloc is rallying around Jodie as their push for the win (and not Colman).
I see it very much as a Mahershala Ali vs Dev Patel situation.
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")
I’m on the group that believes that McDormand is more likely to get her third win this year than Foster. McDormand is in the best picture frontrunner which is all about her character, got lots of critics mentions and she hasn’t missed any precursor so far.
Still, I don’t believe either is going to win. Right now I’m feeling Day/Davis for best actress and Youn/Close for supporting.
I don’t think Glenn can overcome the shitty reviews and Hillbilly Elegy has a lot of backlash. Losing the Globe also made a dent in her chances, which means more for her film
Oscar winners Emerald Fennell Daniel Kaluuya and Youn Yuh-jung
#StopAsianHate
Is it weird that I kind of think Amanda Seyfried will win Critics Choice? I know Minari massively overperformed, but they almost never award the critics’ favorite haha. I just hope that Youn Yuh-jung winning isn’t too good to be true.
Amanda Seyfried is DONE.
I’d be surprised if Amanda Seyfried wins anything at this point. I love the performance but like I said she strikes me as the Andrew Garfield of Mank (the showy scene-stealing supporting performance in a Fincher film that makes it in at the Globes but misses at the Oscars even though the film is one of the most nominated of the night).
I think the real problem she faces is what Riley has touched upon before. She’s not going to get a lot of the necessary #1 preference votes. Yuh-jung Youn will. Olivia Colman will. Jodie Foster will. Maria Bakalova probably will too.
FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")
I don’t see Jodie winning a third Oscar for a performance that got muted buzz until her Globe win. At least with DDL and Streep, we knew they were guaranteed to get an Oscar nomination. Both also played much a baiter role (historical figure transformations is as baity as it gets) than Foster
I currently have Youn first in my predictions and predicting a Close snub. BUT if Close does get an Oscar nomination, I would say she’s second to Youn; 8 nominations 0 wins for a 74 year old (The Oscars is a month after her birthday) woman will be one hell of a narrative that might overcome Hillbilly’s Razzie status. If Close isn’t nominated, then I’d say Colman is second since Close won’t be in contention and she’s in a likely best picture contender playing opposite of Hopkins. Covid narrative by the time voting begins might also help. Though I don’t see her winning a second Oscar since Globes denied her. If however she wins Critics Choice she may win like Sean Penn in Milk who also lost at the Globes but swept the rest of the award season. In any case watch out for Colman if she wins Critics Choice this Sunday.
Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.
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