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Bakalova won’t be nominated.
I love how people just like to throw out the precursors when it doesn’t suit their argument
Critics Choice winners work as reaffirming who’s sweeping the rest of the award (Dern or Marriage Story) or start a sweep (Ali in Moonlight) or choose whoever they want (Portman in Jackie)
Unless you are predicting Bakalova to sweep the rest of the precursors then this Critics Choice win in this category isn’t that much meaningful.
Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.
I’m not making an argument on behalf of any particular candidate. But the precursors that aren’t voted on by actual Academy members (which is all of them pre-guilds) are of limited value if there’s no real narrative. Nobody (or hardly anybody) in the Academy actually cares how the HFPA or the Critics voted. A lot of the predictive value of early precursors comes from either narrative-shaping or just elevating people to voters’ attention.
In both the male acting categories the precursors are telling a pretty clear story (particularly in Best Actor). In the female acting categories, there’s nothing to speak of but confusion.
Okay. Lol.
#12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.
If I told anyone who just watched Borat2 that the girl in it won an Oscars for that performance, I really want to see their reations lol.
Coen-Lynch-Fellini
Critics Choice winners work as reaffirming who’s sweeping the rest of the award (Dern or Marriage Story) or start a sweep (Ali in Moonlight) or choose whoever they want (Portman in Jackie)
Unless you are predicting Bakalova to sweep the rest of the precursors then this Critics Choice win in this category isn’t that much meaningful.
I don’t know who I’m picking to win at this point. I honestly had Maria flipping her wins. I assumed she was winning the GG and was gonna lose the CC. If everyone is saying that Mulligan winning tonight means she’s the frontrunner, then we should apply the same logic for Maria, which I hate to say cause I hope she is snubbed.
#12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.
I don’t know who I’m picking to win at this point. I honestly had Maria flipping her wins. I assumed she was winning the GG and was gonna lose the CC. If everyone is saying that Mulligan winning tonight means she’s the frontrunner, then we should apply the same logic for Maria, which I hate to say cause I hope she is snubbed.
I didn’t know people said Mulligan was the frontrunner. I don’t really agree with that. Too early. I haven’t been too invested in the Best Actress win since Day is snubbed at SAG and BAFTA.
Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.
I don’t care anymore about who wins or not.
I’m just praying, praying, praying that Youn doesn’t get snubbed for an Oscar nomination because it doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility. Like honestly now I’m just really terrified she will miss out because it will be such a heartbreaking dash to my hopes.
FYC:
Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
I don’t care anymore about who wins or not. I’m just praying, praying, praying that Youn doesn’t get snubbed for an Oscar nomination because it doesn’t seem out of the realm of possibility. Like honestly now I’m just really terrified she will miss out because it will be such a heartbreaking dash to my hopes.
The real reason (without trying to put my bias for my love of the film) I’m predicting her to get nom (I won’t say she is a lock though.) Is because of that HUGE SAG body that voted for her and the film. I do think the Oscars will follow suit, with the large voter overlap and all and the fact that they are actors voting. Of course, the anti asian stuff is why she is at risk (just a little though, in my opinion.)
My predictions:
SAG: Close
BAFTA: Foster or Close or Youn
Oscar Noms: Close, Colman, Youn, Foster, Zengel
Snubs: Seyfried, Bakalova, Burstyn
I just feel like both BAFTA and AMPAS will likely snub Bakalova. I was expecting Youn to win CC given people’s confidence in her here plus her critics’ recognitions.
She wasn’t nominated at SAG
Oh, crud, you’re right! I seriously forgot.
So I guess Amanda’s only hope is BAFTA.
I’m only keeping her because I have no idea who else to pick.
Movie-lover overall.
I’m not surprised AT ALL with Maria’s win. With Jodies snub I knew they were going to pick someone who had been getting a lot of buzz (which in case the critics attention and precursors we’ve gotten so far). Youn was first in KY predictions but Maria was a close second for me.
It’s crazy how much power BAFTA has in this tight race. I still think whoever wins BAFTA wins the Oscar. So whoever gets snubbed at the BAFTA nomination on Tuesday will be out of the race.
Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.
Considering that this race is the wackiest, I’m still going with Amanda Seyfried. SAG is probably going to be the friendliest to that film. I can also see her win BAFTA.
But then again, who the hell knows.
She missed SAG…
Here’s where I am: Right now I’m not picking a winner, because there’s a strong possibility that the person I pick to win won’t even be nominated (Foster, Bakalova, Close). Once the nominations come out, I’ll go back to the drawing board.
It’s crazy how much power BAFTA has in this tight race. I still think whoever wins BAFTA wins the Oscar. So whoever gets snubbed at the BAFTA nomination on Tuesday will be out of the race.
Well BAFTA has 6 nominees this year. So that doesn’t really help.
#12 for 2021 SAG Film Award Winners.
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