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Late release.
Or simply her comeback narrative isn’t that strong to begin with. So it’s hard to predict her in noms for me. But then I can’t in all seriousness predict Close nom for her HE role.
Part of why I think Foster is strong isn’t necessarily because of her film, performance, or some notion of a comeback narrative. They want those headlines when both her and Hopkins are nominated again, 30 years later.
In that sense, I think Leslie Manville was helped out by the fact that she was the ex-wife of the Best Actor frontrunner back in 2019. They like those kind of nominee connections. Oscar journalists get to write click-bait articles about that kind of stuff. Keeps the money machine churning.
FYC:
"Now We're Cookin'" - Son Lux & Randy Newman for Original Song
I finally took out Seyfried. That SAG snub was inexcusable and I could not keep her in my predictions. Given Mank’s underperformance in the non-juried categories at BAFTA, it’s not unreasonable to believe that she would also have missed BAFTA under the old system as well. So with that in mind, I took her out.
Part of why I think Foster is strong isn’t necessarily because of her film, performance, or some notion of a comeback narrative. They want those headlines when both her and Hopkins are nominated again, 30 years later.
You know I think you offered the most convincing argument for Foster nom. I’ll take it.
In that sense, I think Leslie Manville was helped out by the fact that she was the ex-wife of the Best Actor frontrunner back in 2019. They like those kind of nominee connections. Oscar journalists get to write click-bait articles about that kind of stuff. Keeps the money machine churning.
I get what you mean. I do remember some of those click-bait articles back then and how disappointed they were that there were no catfight between exes and they got along just fine and complimented each other lol. However let’s not disrespect Manville. She is a very good actress with a lot of great screen and theatre work and her role was very nomination worthy.
Foster winning the Globe a week before Oscar voting commenced plus the strength of “The Mauritanian” in non-juried BAFTA categories was all the convincing I needed to include her in my final five predictions. I don’t take too much worth in Foster missing at the BAFTAs for supporting actress. Trying to glean awards worthiness or unworthiness from juried pools of twelve is a fool’s errand.
Where the BAFTA juried system in acting comes useful is in cases like Dominique Fishback where it might indicate that those who watch <i>Judas and the Black Messiah </i>after seeing Kaluuya win all these awards might be taken by Fishback’s performance and she has a chance of coattailing (Stanfield less so). Tahar Rahim is the person who can coattail to Jodie Foster not vice-versa. Jodie Foster will get votes on the basis of her comeback narrative, her popularity in Hollywood, her Globe win and there being passion for her performance but when voters actually watch then film, some may be more inclined to vote for Rahim too.
FYC:
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")
let’s not disrespect Manville. She is a very good actress with a lot of great screen and theatre work and her role was very nomination worthy.
Oh yes, I mean no disrespect to Manville. Her performance in Phantom Thread was brilliant. I was just suggesting that there’s always more at play to getting nominated than the quality of one’s performance, which I’m sure everyone here knows.
FYC:
"Now We're Cookin'" - Son Lux & Randy Newman for Original Song
I’m a huge Foster fan, but I’m not so sure she will receive nomination. But then category is volatile, so its anybodys guess. For those of you whove seen The Mauritanian, is she nom/win worthy?
For those of you whove seen The Mauritanian, is she nom/win worthy?
Nomination worthy yes. It’s also arguably a lead performance (her character is quite prominent within the plot) so whilst it’s not my favourite in this category and it is quite a conventional performance, it’s not as if she doesn’t do anything in this film.
FYC:
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")
I know a lot of people think she’s a lead but do you guys think Viola would be the frontrunner here if she had gone supporting?
Doubt it. Its not like best actress is exactly stable at the moment.
It’s a joy to see my lady being number 1 in the odds. Well done guys!
I have Seyfried out, because i can’t find good reason she missed SAG. Wasn’t underseen or late-breaking. Wasn’t indie/small/foreign. Its tough to come up with precedent for her nomination. Like, Matt Damon for the Martian? He won Globe though. Octavia Spencer? But she was in BP winner. Anyone agreeing?
Also SAG love nominating their stars. Look at how Emily Blunt has managed to get in for performances on the bubble when it came to Oscar consideration.
I see no reason for why her miss was justifiable other than that the actors aren’t here for Mank. Which is a shame because I found the ensemble to be quite deserving.
FYC:
"The Good Fight", "The Other Two" and "Station Eleven" in all categories, Sarah Lancashire ("Julia"), William Jackson Harper ("Love Life") and Luke Kirby ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")
Why is everyone dropping Zengel from their predictions? I don’t get it.
Why is everyone dropping Zengel from their predictions? I don’t get it.
News of the World flopped.
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