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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 14)

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    John Berchmans
    Joined:
    Jan 22nd, 2018
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    #1204138569

    They’re so irrelevant that they were the first awards body to recognise Parasite with a Picture win last year and the first awards body to recognise Alison Janney and Sam Rockwell when Laurie Metcalf and Willem Dafoe were the presumed frontrunners.

    Just because AACTA gets a few predictions right doesn’t mean they still aren’t irrelevant. You can say the same thing for literally any Critic award. Whatever the Australian Academy votes for has zero effect on Oscar voters: I doubt most Oscar voters even know what the AACTA winners are in a given year. They only pay attention to the big, buzzy televised award show winners.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    John Berchmans
    Joined:
    Jan 22nd, 2018
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    #1204138572

    They’re so relevant that they got right only three BP winners since 2011 and didn’t even nominate Laura Dern last year.

    Or Daniel Kaluuya this year.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-Jung
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    Barbra Please
    Joined:
    Oct 21st, 2018
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    #1204138582

    AACTA is irrelevant, so moving on. This is a 3-way race between Bakalova, Close and Youn. SAG will define the race. Whoever wins that, wins Oscar.

    Zengel

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    Atypical
    Joined:
    Dec 1st, 2011
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    #1204138588

    SAG is the bellwether awards group here, not AACTA.

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204138599

    AACTA snubbed Minari not only in acting but in directing and screenplay too. Complete Judas shutout too cmon.  They are irrelevant this year. The wins there probably matched a Golden Globes timeline the HFPA didn’t commit to.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    Naiad Lyne
    Joined:
    Jun 22nd, 2020
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    #1204138654

    SAG is the bellwether awards group here, not AACTA.

    We need them to leak SAG winners. Pronto!

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    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204138694

    The SAG winner will win the Oscar and that won’t be Olivia Colman.

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    Victor Cruz
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    Sep 8th, 2013
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    #1204138714

    What makes ya think Colman is not coming for SAG. She’s nominated twice there like Emily Blunt.

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    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204138738

    What makes ya think Colman is not coming for SAG. She’s nominated twice there like Emily Blunt.

    And Amy Adams

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    24fanatic
    Joined:
    Nov 6th, 2010
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    #1204138752

    Can someone explain to me what the narrative is for someone like Olivia Colman to win???

    …because I can’t think of one. She’s a very recent winner, the only previous winner amongst the nominees and is in a film that isn’t going to win Best Picture or any other awards.

    Like, why would the Academy vote for her again so soon? Especially when they have the options of making a political statement with a Maria win, finally awarding an 8-time nominated legend with Glenn or awarding the first Korean actress ever with Yuh-Jung Youn.

    Is the idea that the other actresses will split the vote?

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    Victor Cruz
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    Sep 8th, 2013
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    #1204138761

    Can someone explain to me what the narrative is for someone like Olivia Colman to win???

    …because I can’t think of one. She’s a very recent winner, the only previous winner amongst the nominees and is in a film that isn’t going to win Best Picture or any other awards.

    Like, why would the Academy vote for her again so soon? Especially when they have the options of making a political statement with a Maria win, finally awarding an 8-time nominated legend with Glenn or awarding the first Korean actress ever with Yuh-Jung Youn.

    Is the idea that the other actresses will split the vote?

    Hun, Mark Rylance had 0 narrative and he beat Sylvester Stallone.

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204138763

    Can someone explain to me what the narrative is for someone like Olivia Colman to win??? …because I can’t think of one. She’s a very recent winner, the only previous winner amongst the nominees and is in a film that isn’t going to win Best Picture or any other awards. Like, why would the Academy vote for her again so soon? Especially when they have the options of making a political statement with a Maria win, finally awarding an 8-time nominated legend with Glenn or awarding the first Korean actress ever with Yuh-Jung Youn. Is the idea that the other actresses will split the vote?

    There was a Covid narrative that people came up with about Colman’s character taking care of an ill person like in real life so voters would sympathize and vote for her.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    24fanatic
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    Nov 6th, 2010
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    #1204138772

    Hun, Mark Rylance had 0 narrative and he beat Sylvester Stallone.

    Mark Rylance was a more respected thespian actor who hadn’t won previously let alone recently.

    Profile picture
    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204138774

    Hun, Mark Rylance had 0 narrative and he beat Sylvester Stallone.

    Rylance wasn’t a recent Best Actor winner.

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204138784

    Hun, Mark Rylance had 0 narrative and he beat Sylvester Stallone.

    Ruffalo and Hardy were surprises in the categories. Stallone had no narrative. Rylance was also very respected in the industry and was pushing his late 50’s without an Oscar. This year’s category has 3 strong narratives competing against Colman. And Bale was nominated in every precursor and in a best picture nominee and had won 5 years ago. Sounding like Colman right now.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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