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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 17)

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    asianmoviegeek
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    Mar 9th, 2021
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    #1204194927

    Queen Youn Yuh-jung claiming her throne! Get ready for that sassy and brilliant speech at the Oscars!

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    asianmoviegeek
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    #1204194937

    Ew the industry really tried to make JLaw happen. The perfect definition of white privilege. Notice how after H.W. went to prison, she started fading and getting weak roles? Interesting.

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    crabbie
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    #1204194947

    Not again with the botched precedents to justifying the delusion of Close winning. *Regina King – Critics favorite (Won the trifecta), won GG+SAG, her film was nominated in guilds like the GG and her film was nominated in Best Adapted Screenplay *Allison Janney – After Metcalf she was the one with most critics awards, won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA, her film was PGA nominee (Probably 10th) *Viola Davis – Won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA, Best Picture nominee. *Patricia Arquette – Critics favorite (Won the trifecta), Top 2 Best Picture, won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA *Laura Dern – Critics favorite, Best Picture nominee, won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA *Anne Hathaway – Won the majority of regionals, Best Picture nominee (Potential Top 5), won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA *Octavia Spencer – Won the majority of regionals, Best Picture nominee (Potential Top 5), won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA *Melissa Leo – Won NYFCC, Best Picture nominee (Likely Top 5), won GG+SAG+CC. For Close you have: -An actress who lost GG+CC+SAG. And before going for the excuse “They awarded her before”, Zellweger won two SAG in consecutive years, and 3 GG in 4 years. Ditto Streep winning NYFCC and GG between 2006 and 2011. If an actress has an unquestionable narrative to be awarded, they fall and gave the awards, or Amy Adams winning two consecutive GGs. -A film which was panned and has only a makeup nom. No Best Picture, Director and/or screenplay nom either -No critics awards (Youn is the critics darling this yer, next Bakalova). -The narrative about her losses now has become “pity votes” lol. Every time someone came saying Glenn Close can win, the only justification is because “i feel it” but then she failed to win over again. Also, if we use the thought of “No Asian actor has won since 1958” or “No Eastern European has won since 1963”, well, before Vikander no Nordic actress had won since 1974 and still she won.

    This person has always come with the facts and stats. Tell us who will win Best Actress.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    RobertPius
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    #1204195115

    Not again with the botched precedents to justifying the delusion of Close winning.

    *Regina King – Critics favorite (Won the trifecta), won GG+SAG, her film was nominated in guilds like the GG and her film was nominated in Best Adapted Screenplay
    *Allison Janney – After Metcalf she was the one with most critics awards, won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA, her film was PGA nominee (Probably 10th)
    *Viola Davis – Won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA, Best Picture nominee.
    *Patricia Arquette – Critics favorite (Won the trifecta), Top 2 Best Picture, won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA
    *Laura Dern – Critics favorite, Best Picture nominee, won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA
    *Anne Hathaway – Won the majority of regionals, Best Picture nominee (Potential Top 5), won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA
    *Octavia Spencer – Won the majority of regionals, Best Picture nominee (Potential Top 5), won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA
    *Melissa Leo – Won NYFCC, Best Picture nominee (Likely Top 5), won GG+SAG+CC.

    For Close you have:

    -An actress who lost GG+CC+SAG. And before going for the excuse “They awarded her before”, Zellweger won two SAG in consecutive years, and 3 GG in 4 years. Ditto Streep winning NYFCC and GG between 2006 and 2011. If an actress has an unquestionable narrative to be awarded, they fall and gave the awards, or Amy Adams winning two consecutive GGs.
    -A film which was panned and has only a makeup nom. No Best Picture, Director and/or screenplay nom either
    -No critics awards (Youn is the critics darling this yer, next Bakalova).
    -The narrative about her losses now has become “pity votes” lol.

    Every time someone came saying Glenn Close can win, the only justification is because “i feel it” but then she failed to win over again.

    Also, if we use the thought of “No Asian actor has won since 1958” or “No Eastern European has won since 1963”, well, before Vikander no Nordic actress had won since 1974 and still she won.

    Not again with the botched precedents to justifying the delusion of Close winning.

    *Regina King – Critics favorite (Won the trifecta), won GG+SAG, her film was nominated in guilds like the GG and her film was nominated in Best Adapted Screenplay
    *Allison Janney – After Metcalf she was the one with most critics awards, won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA, her film was PGA nominee (Probably 10th)
    *Viola Davis – Won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA, Best Picture nominee.
    *Patricia Arquette – Critics favorite (Won the trifecta), Top 2 Best Picture, won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA
    *Laura Dern – Critics favorite, Best Picture nominee, won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA
    *Anne Hathaway – Won the majority of regionals, Best Picture nominee (Potential Top 5), won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA
    *Octavia Spencer – Won the majority of regionals, Best Picture nominee (Potential Top 5), won GG+SAG+CC+BAFTA
    *Melissa Leo – Won NYFCC, Best Picture nominee (Likely Top 5), won GG+SAG+CC.

    For Close you have:

    -An actress who lost GG+CC+SAG. And before going for the excuse “They awarded her before”, Zellweger won two SAG in consecutive years, and 3 GG in 4 years. Ditto Streep winning NYFCC and GG between 2006 and 2011. If an actress has an unquestionable narrative to be awarded, they fall and gave the awards, or Amy Adams winning two consecutive GGs.
    -A film which was panned and has only a makeup nom. No Best Picture, Director and/or screenplay nom either
    -No critics awards (Youn is the critics darling this yer, next Bakalova).
    -The narrative about her losses now has become “pity votes” lol.

    Every time someone came saying Glenn Close can win, the only justification is because “i feel it” but then she failed to win over again.

    Also, if we use the thought of “No Asian actor has won since 1958” or “No Eastern European has won since 1963”, well, before Vikander no Nordic actress had won since 1974 and still she won.

    Actually Regina King wasn’t even nominated at SAG. That was an odd year.

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    Aimerarrow
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    Feb 11th, 2021
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    #1204195169

    Youn has this locked.

    If you feel like you have to be worried about anyone, it’s Colman (who I feel like would’ve won bafta if she was nominated) who I’m sure will get a good amount of votes from the brits (as evidence by BAFTAs love for the film) and the aussies her AACTA win. But Youn winning BAFTA, despite their clear indifference (or whatever you call it) for the film (it didn’t win Foreign Language! And the film couldn’t even get longlisted in the top 15 by the BAFTA body), is also a sign that I’m sure she’ll get a good chunk of brit votes too, complemented by all her american votes (evidenced by SAG and the love for the film in the USA)

    Even then, it’s just an afterthought as they make up a small portion of the acting voting body at AMPAS (which is enough to tip the races in some situations where the frontrunner is shaky. Youn is not (far from).

    No one else stands a chance at all.

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    ChildishGambino
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    #1204195285

    Here’s how Amanda Seyfried can still win:

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    crabbie
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    #1204195294

    BAFTA has the best track record of rewarding foreign language performances. They’ve went with Cotillard, Benigni, Benicio Del Toro, now Youn. Cotillard missed at SAG, Benigni missed at the Globes, and Youn was snubbed at the Globes. BAFTA was also the first industry award show to give a foreign film Best Picture and rewarded Emmanuelle Riva putting a hold to Jlaw’s sweep that season. It’s interesting how a foreign language performance has never ever swept the precursors. It’s not surprising.

    SAG + BAFTA for a foreign language performance has a 100% accuracy rate for the Oscars. Only one person has lost with both SAG + BAFTA and that was Annette Bening who lost to Hillary Swank that year who won the Globes and Critics Choice. Foster is not nominated at the Oscars, so it’s a done deal. Youn will win like Cate Blanchett for The Aviator who lose the Globes and Critics Choice.

    This category has been fun to predict the nominees only for the nominees to be the top 5 people in Goldderby odds and coming up with theories about who would win at SAG only for Youn to snatch those industry precursors. The Critics Choice just threw a wrench and made us confuse. It was obvious the extreme love and passion for Parasite last year would produce goodwill for Youn’s victory this year.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    #1204195929
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    arodfan
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    #1204195991

    Cotillard missed at SAG

    This isn’t true.

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    crabbie
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    #1204196008

    Russell Crowe, Daniel Day-Lewis and Christopher Walken all say hi.

    I did not consider the former two as possibilities for Youn’s path to losing. Russel Crowe beat someone up at BAFTA. The Pianist was a best picture frontrunner for Brody. I forgot about Christopher Walken though.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    crabbie
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    #1204196012

    This isn’t true.

    I was referring to the precursor track record of awarding foreign language film performances. When I said missed I meant they did not win as opposed to snubbed. Should have clarified that.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Piper Halliwell
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    Oct 20th, 2019
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    #1204197533

    Previously: Best Actress

    Category Summary

    Before SAG, the field was completely open and we could see all five actresses on their path to victory.

    After the SAG and BAFTA awards, we got a clear front-runner who took our hearts away with her fantastic performance and iconic speeches about the ‘snobbish British people’. 🙂

    Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan”): Bakalova’s awards run was impressive, and even the film itself surpassed (PGA mention, Academy Award nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay) all our initial predictions. Regardless, the genre bias remains a genre bias. Performances of this nature cannot pick up the fight with Oscar-bait performances. Although Bakalova got nominations everywhere she could, it is entirely conceivable that she was supported by a small passionate group everywhere, since outside of the BFCA win, she couldn’t win anywhere, not even in the weak Golden Globe category. While Glenn Close is respected by everyone and everyone falls in love with Youn Yuh-jung’s naughty grandma, Bakalova’s film remains divisive, and actors interested in more serious crafts may not be able to take the young actress seriously in such a non-traditional role. Because of the genre bias, the lightness of the role, the divisive film, and the lack of narrative, I don’t think that her chances are as strong as many people think so on the forums.

    Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”): I don’t think there are many actors who get nominated for critically panned films (38 on Metascore), but Glenn Close is respected so much by her peers that she was even nominated for such film. Glenn’s strongest pro argument is the overdue narrative, of course, so she shouldn’t be underestimated for the win. It’s not at all inconceivable that the precursors felt they didn’t owe her anything this year after winning most awards in 2018. On the other hand, the Oscar voting committee chose another winner (Olivia Colman), so this particular award win can still be considered for Glenn. The question is, does she have enough passion to win with just the overdue narrative? All indications show that she will not be awarded for the 8th time either, but stranger things have happened in the history of the Oscar.

    Olivia Colman (“The Father”): Colman has gained popularity in the last two to three years that not many people have. After winning the Oscar over Glenn Close and appearing in The Crown, we can once again welcome her in the Oscar race for her wonderful supporting turn in The Father. Colman was considered a potential prospect for a long time, if only because of her popularity, but after most of the buzz went to Anthony Hopkins and Colman couldn’t win the Golden Globe (they love her) and SAG (she hadn’t won an individual award yet, and this would have been the perfect occasion to reward her), as well as the BAFTA jury, did not support her with a nomination, she failed to build enough buzz to have a strong chance of winning. Not to mention, she’s just won two years ago. Regardless, it wouldn’t be fair to suggest that Colman has no fighting chance. The AACTA win is pretty impressive and who knows what would have happened if she were nominated for BAFTA.

    Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”): At first, Seyfried seemed to be our winner, as the portrayal of the talented young actress was highlighted by many as the best segment of her film, not to mention the role of Marion Davies, and her profile fitting the Oscar-winning list of beautiful young actresses, yet, when she was not nominated for the SAG award and could not win the Golden Globe prize, all hope was lost for victory. Mank still gets the most nominations and Seyfried would be the perfect representative of a key category win, but I think this opportunity is already gone and the nomination here is the win, which could help the ‘mean girl’ to get better roles in the future.

    Youn Yuh-jung (“Minari”): She was bizarrely neglected by the Golden Globe voters, but then took home the two most important awards (SAG & BAFTA) of the season, making her the most likely winner in the category. Strong support towards her film and actual performance, lovely personality and funny speeches, diversity push, and the growing support for Asian performers/movies in the industry are all factors that can help this hard-working Korean actress to victory.

    Final Predictions
    1. Youn Yuh-jung (“Minari”)
    2. Olivia Colman (“The Father”)
    3. Glenn Close (“Hillybilly Elegy”)
    4. Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan”)
    5. Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”)

    Bakalova and Seyfried will not win, I do not see a narrative or a path that would bring out their victory in the end. Close can win due to the overdue factor. Colman can win because the Australian and the British bloc can support her. But Youn is the most likely and would be weird in the current climate if she didn’t take the prize.

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    FreemanGriffin
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    #1204197706

    I am so worried that now that I have my hopes up that Youn will win (despite Colman being my actual first place choice) the envelope will be opened and it will be Maria Bakalova ): I am predicting Youn and will be ecstatic if she does indeed win! (esp. since none of the other acting categories are going to go my way or even remotely close to it). Oh well, it’s just a silly award!!!!

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    tom92
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    #1204198367

    Anyone still predicting Close (apparently she’s sweeping this year) or have you all sobered up?

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    KAZ-2.5
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    Jan 16th, 2018
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    #1204198401

    I’m so happy that I was wrong about Close. She should not win this year and I don’t think she will.

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