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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 17)

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    #1204203924
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204203956

    Obviously. But just because she’s getting praised doesn’t mean she has passion, like the movie has. One doesn’t equal the other.

    So explain the AACTA Win. That’s a way more important award than something like BFCA. Colman is literally the only person other than Youn who has won something big and who would have also been pretty competitive for a BAFTA Win.

    Close hasn’t shown any passion this season – it’s been always about her being overdue. Seyfried has, but it faded quickly. Bakalova has only won BFCA. She’s been done in this race for ages, people just don’t want to realize it.

    So how is Colman not runner-up, the worst-case scenario 3rd in this race?

    Like even if I accept the argument that she has no passion, her film, AACTA win, possible BAFTA support still makes her a runner-up/3rd placer in this race.

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    Oscirus Jones
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    #1204203965

    So explain the AACTA Win. That’s a way more important award than something like BFCA. Colman is literally the only person other than Youn who has won something big and who would have also been pretty competitive for a BAFTA Win. Close hasn’t shown any passion this season – it’s been always about her being overdue. Seyfried has, but it faded quickly. Bakalova has only won BFCA. She’s been done in this race for ages, people just don’t want to realize it. So how is Colman not runner-up, the worst-case scenario 3rd in this race?

    How is AACTA more important than the BFCA?  That ones not even considered to be a precursor other than by people who want to use it when to support their favs winning

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204203981

    How is AACTA more important than the BFCA? That ones not even considered to be a precursor other than by people who want to use it when to support their favs winning

    How? AACTA = Australian voting bloc. BFCA = bunch of critics who aren’t Oscar voters.

     

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    Melvinezq
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    #1204203985

    How is AACTA more important than the BFCA? That ones not even considered to be a precursor other than by people who want to use it when to support their favs winning

    The voting member of AACTA includes some of AMPAS member, such as Cate Blanchett, Nicole Kidman and Russell Crowe while I don’t think there is critic who’s part of BFCA who votes for The Oscar. The shared members make it more important the same way like some of us think SAG is more important than Golden Globes.

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    Oscirus Jones
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    #1204203991

    How? AACTA = Australian voting bloc. BFCA = bunch of critics who aren’t Oscar voters.

    The voting member of AACTA includes some of AMPAS member, such as Cate Blanchett, Nicole Kidman and Russell Crowe while I don’t think there is critic who’s part of BFCA who votes for The Oscar. The shared members make it more important the same way like some of us think SAG is more important than Golden Globes.

     

    So the same bloc that missed four of the supporting actor nominees and three of the supporting actress nominees is now a precursor?

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    estrelas
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    #1204203999

    So explain the AACTA Win. That’s a way more important award than something like BFCA. Colman is literally the only person other than Youn who has won something big and who would have also been pretty competitive for a BAFTA Win.

    Close hasn’t shown any passion this season – it’s been always about her being overdue. Seyfried has, but it faded quickly. Bakalova has only won BFCA. She’s been done in this race for ages, people just don’t want to realize it.

    So how is Colman not runner-up, the worst-case scenario 3rd in this race?

    Like even if I accept the argument that she has no passion, her film, AACTA win, possible BAFTA support still makes her a runner-up/3rd placer in this race.

    AACTA loved The Father, so her win isn’t that surprising. They probably wanted to reward the movie and since they were already voting for Chadwick in lead, she was the easiest place to give it a win. Also, she won there for The Favourite when Glenn was the favourite. They obviously like her. And btw, AACTA has an atrocious track record in Supporting Actress. For the last two years, they snubbed the Oscar winner and it looks like its going to three years, since Youn is more than likely winning at this point. Also, she tanked in several places where her movie did extremely well.
    She can finish top3 or even as the runner-up, but using that AACTA win is…a choice.

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    Melvinezq
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    #1204204011

    So the same bloc that missed four of the supporting actor nominees and three of the supporting actress nominees is now a precursor?

    I’m not answering a question about precursor. You better read what I quote. As far as I understand, it’s about which one is more important.

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    Oscirus Jones
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    #1204204028

    I’m not answering a question about precursor. You better read what I quote. As far as I understand, it’s about which one is more important.

    Semantics, precursor, more important same concept in regards to this topic.

    What makes aacta more important when it cant even get its nominees close to right?

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    Novic
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    #1204204039

    This topic is so dead that you guys are now arguing about who is in 3rd place…

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    Melvinezq
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    #1204204073

    Semantics, precursor, more important same concept in regards to this topic. What makes aacta more important when it cant eve get its nominees close to right?

    Well, may I ask you which one is more important: GG or SAG? There can be two point of view, shared members and exposure. I think I can see SAG is more important than SAG because it includes the voters. So is AACTA. However, it’s totally understandable if what you perceive as important is exposure which may result in the answer that GG is more important than SAG and BFCA is more important than AACTA. It’s clear that BFCA is closer to the Oscar nominees, but is it legitimate? I mean does it include a pinch of voters’ true preference? Yeah, AACTA member didn’t try to predict Oscar like BFCA did, but I think international voters’ are really included in it. The voting method is similar to The Oscar which explains why the nominees are so different, but still really helpful because I can see how the industry think about certain nominees. I mean when Linda May was nominated, I knew that Nomadland would win The Oscar because it’s just undeniably loved across the voters’ background. When Colman won, I was more confident in The Father getting in Picture and Editing. It’s more important, I think, than seeing tie after tie after tie.

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    crabbie
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    #1204204083

    Logically Colman would be 2nd but I am disturbed by the plethora of pundit articles discussing how Close can make a last minute comeback at the Oscars because the Academy somehow “owes” her.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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    Piper Halliwell
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    #1204204089

    People don’t seem to understand that just because BFCA has visibility and actual awards show that can make the big headlines (so it can definitely be helpful with buzz), it doesn’t mean that it’s more important than AACTA. The latter is literally the Australian voting bloc, just as BAFTA is the British-Irish voting bloc. It’s way more representative of actual industry opinion than the Golden Globe and BFCA awards.

    Also, it doesn’t really matter if AACTA has a good track record for the nominations. The bloc obviously cannot be influential enough to be responsible for the full list. But it’s kind of important who they are voting for the win. And they went with Colman. And she would have been competitive for the BAFTA win as well. Just like Mulligan.

    That alone is more than whatever Close, Seyfried, or Bakalova have.

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    musterd
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    #1204204094

    BFCA are only important to the extent they are desperate to predict Oscar winners and establish their ‘influence’ that way, which has backfired on them more than usual this year since it’s an atypical year where no film has really maintained mainstream buzz and voting is likely to be erratic in some categories more than usual.

    Colman is doing fine awards wise. She barely campaigned or even promoted her work this season (especially The Crown where Anderson and Corrin were constantly everywhere and did like 100 interviews each, while Colman did 2 interviews max and spent the rest of time filming 3 different projects and some promotion for The Father), and she still got all her noms (that where unjuried :P)

    She will be back the next few seasons especially if she continues to book projects like the one with Searchlight, Mendes and Deakins. Don’t think she has to worry about fighting for 2nd place lol.

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    wolfali
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    #1204204104

    At this point if anyone wins over Yuh-jung Youn with the performance she has, the narrative she has and after she won the two big industry precursors – it would be one of the most racist things the academy has ever done.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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