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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 2)

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    Miles
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    #1203809209

    Why do people always think awards groups keep track of who they have and have not awarded before. What SAG member is going to think to themselves, Anthony Hopkins has never won a SAG award so I’d better give it to him! And conversely, who at HFPA is going to think to themselves, Glenn Close already has 3 Golden Globes so I’d better give it to someone else! Voters don’t think about that stuff like we do.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203809215

    Why do people always think awards groups keep track of who they have and have not awarded before. What SAG member is going to think to themselves, Anthony Hopkins has never won a SAG award so I’d better give it to him! And conversely, who at HFPA is going to think to themselves, Glenn Close already has 3 Golden Globes so I’d better give it to someone else! Voters don’t think about that stuff like we do.

    You’re right about the second part, but HFPA and SAG voters are most likely aware that Hopkins has never won a Globe and SAG award, since that’s a pretty important statistic.

    Fuck the Grammys

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    OccultCherry
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    #1203809227

    You’re right about the second part, but HFPA and SAG voters are most likely aware that Hopkins has never won a Globe and SAG award, since that’s a pretty important statistic.

    Does the composition of Globe and SAG voters change often? If not, I’d agree with you.

    FYC:

    Picture: Nomadland
    Director: Chloe Zhao
    Leading Actress: Frances McDormand
    Leading Actor: Anthony Hopkins
    Supporting Actress: Olivia Colman
    Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Adapted Screenplay: The Father
    Original Screenplay: Minari

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    ReginaIsKing
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    #1203809234

    Denzel’s SAG win was based on a huge narrative that he never won there before so I don’t know why it should be any different from 3 years ago. Given the fact that they always sheep vote, they strayed away just for that narrative so they do know who hasn’t won before and keep it mind.

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1203809257

    With that said, The Father being Hopkins’ movie is equally irrelevant. I don’t think anyone would claim that Marriage Story was Dern’s movie, for instance. It all depends on the category in which an actor is competing and who this actor is (obvs. Dern had a much bigger narrative than either one of Driver or Johansson). Unless Glenn underwhelms — which I highly, highly doubt — I don’t really see a path for Colman. Her performance is nowhere near as buzzed about as Mahershela’s in Green Book, him obviously being the latest actor to win his second Oscar two years after bagging his first.

    Also look I respect Olivia Colman’s work (a lot more than people on this site do) but when was the last time an actress won Lead and then Supporting. I mean not even Nicole Kidman or Meryl Streep have managed to win Lead –> Supporting (Meryl went Supporting –> Lead –> Lead whilst Kidman just won only one Lead) and they’re more beloved than Olivia Colman.

    I think if Glenn loses to anyone (big IF because Hillbilly would have to be SUPER bad for that to happen) it’s going to be to Seyfried (who has her own disadvantages because no actor has won an Oscar for a David Fincher film yet).

    FYC OSCARS : VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", AMANDA SEYFRIED FOR "MANK", CHADWICK BOSEMAN FOR "MA RAINEY'S BLACK BOTTOM", PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY).

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    Miles
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    #1203809642

    But SAG is so huge. Does the average SAG member really know off the top of their head who has won a SAG award and who hasn’t?

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    Bassett
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    Dec 21st, 2016
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    #1203809650

    Also why nobody is talking about lack of diversity in this category? I don’t think all white actresses is happening in this category. Its strange that nobody has pointed this out yet.

    Because there are competitive POC in all the other categories, including Director.

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supp Actor - Daniel Kaluuya, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II

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    Bassett
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    #1203809656

    But SAG is so huge. Does the average SAG member really know off the top of their head who has won a SAG award and who hasn’t?

    That’s the only way to explain how Denzel beat Affleck who won literally everything else (other than his performance being louder and more “actor-ey” but I don’t think it’s that relevant)

    This said the overdue factor didn’t help Pacino or Pesci beating Pitt like some were predicting

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supp Actor - Daniel Kaluuya, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II

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    Damucracia
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    #1203809701

    You’re right about the second part, but HFPA and SAG voters are most likely aware that Hopkins has never won a Globe and SAG award, since that’s a pretty important statistic.

    they are journalist. Of course they know their own stats

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    dinasztie
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    #1203809721

    they are journalist. Of course they know their own stats

    The HFPA, for sure. And trust me, they know the Oscar narrative – netflix will spare no expense or time to have Glenn suck up to them, even if it’s over zoom or whatever. And it’s the HFPA that starts the ball rolling in Supporting (case in point: Allison Janney) – everybody else seems to follow suit. The last time when it wasn’t the case was Mahershala losing to ATJ (who ended up snubbed). I think that also played a part in his winning for GB, but the movie was also really strong that year.

    SAG (with the extended membership) is the most populist – in Glenn’s (or Viola’s) case, that is a GREAT thing (and had already been proven so); with Sir Anthony Hopkins and Chadwick, THAT will be a close and exciting race. I am thinking Globe for Hopkins, SAG for Chadwick, Bafta for Hopkins, Oscar for Hopkins (especially if Viola is winning). But that’s a different thread.

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    JackO
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    #1203809800

    Erm you literally said they were journalists, imagine the exposure and buzz they will receive when they start Chadwick train? That is too much to resist lol, esp for them…

    yeah i would say GG and SAG are Boseman most likely pickups. Racist BAFTA more likely to award Hopkins.

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    estrelas
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    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1203809828

    I also would like to remind everyone that is much easier for an actor to win a supporting Oscar for a mixed reviewed and buzzless movie than a leading one.

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    vinny
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    #1203810291

    Seyfried and Colman and close seem like locks to me. That leaves two spots and I’m going with Borats daughter and Ronan

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    Bee
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    Oct 25th, 2016
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    #1203810316

    That’s the only way to explain how Denzel beat Affleck who won literally everything else (other than his performance being louder and more “actor-ey” but I don’t think it’s that relevant) This said the overdue factor didn’t help Pacino or Pesci beating Pitt like some were predicting

    Also Meryl winning for Doubt over Winslet.

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    gabspss
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    Sep 10th, 2018
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    #1203810326

    Also Judi Dench winning for Chocolat.

    The chaotic editing from Moulin Rouge!
    The chaotic editing from Moulin Rouge!
    The chaotic editing from Moulin Rouge!
    The chaotic editing from Moulin Rouge!

    I love it, I love it, I love it, but I also have my problems with it.

    Nicole Kidman is amazing in Moulin Rouge!

    The film won the Golden Globe and the PGA for Best Motion Picture

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