October 29, 2020 at 8:22 am #1203809234
Denzel’s SAG win was based on a huge narrative that he never won there before so I don’t know why it should be any different from 3 years ago. Given the fact that they always sheep vote, they strayed away just for that narrative so they do know who hasn’t won before and keep it mind.October 29, 2020 at 8:25 am #1203809257
With that said, The Father being Hopkins’ movie is equally irrelevant. I don’t think anyone would claim that Marriage Story was Dern’s movie, for instance. It all depends on the category in which an actor is competing and who this actor is (obvs. Dern had a much bigger narrative than either one of Driver or Johansson). Unless Glenn underwhelms — which I highly, highly doubt — I don’t really see a path for Colman. Her performance is nowhere near as buzzed about as Mahershela’s in Green Book, him obviously being the latest actor to win his second Oscar two years after bagging his first.
Also look I respect Olivia Colman’s work (a lot more than people on this site do) but when was the last time an actress won Lead and then Supporting. I mean not even Nicole Kidman or Meryl Streep have managed to win Lead –> Supporting (Meryl went Supporting –> Lead –> Lead whilst Kidman just won only one Lead) and they’re more beloved than Olivia Colman.
I think if Glenn loses to anyone (big IF because Hillbilly would have to be SUPER bad for that to happen) it’s going to be to Seyfried (who has her own disadvantages because no actor has won an Oscar for a David Fincher film yet).
Picture: Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva Baby/Spencer
Director: Jane Campion/Rebecca Hall/Pablo Larrain
Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch/Andrew Garfield/Winston Duke
Actress: Olivia Colman/Kristen Stewart/Tessa Thompson
S. Actor: Richard E. Grant/Troy Kotsur/Kodi Smit-McPhee
S. Actress : Kirsten Dunst/Claire Foy/Jayne Houdyshell/Martha Plimpton/Ruth Negga/Diana Rigg/Anya Taylor-Joy
O. Screenplay: Bergman Island/Mass/Nine Days
A. Screenplay: The Lost Daughter/Passing/The Power of the Dog/Shiva BOctober 29, 2020 at 11:59 am #1203809642
But SAG is so huge. Does the average SAG member really know off the top of their head who has won a SAG award and who hasn’t?October 29, 2020 at 12:00 pm #1203809650
Also why nobody is talking about lack of diversity in this category? I don’t think all white actresses is happening in this category. Its strange that nobody has pointed this out yet.
Because there are competitive POC in all the other categories, including Director.October 29, 2020 at 12:03 pm #1203809656
But SAG is so huge. Does the average SAG member really know off the top of their head who has won a SAG award and who hasn’t?
That’s the only way to explain how Denzel beat Affleck who won literally everything else (other than his performance being louder and more “actor-ey” but I don’t think it’s that relevant)
This said the overdue factor didn’t help Pacino or Pesci beating Pitt like some were predictingOctober 29, 2020 at 12:36 pm #1203809721
they are journalist. Of course they know their own stats
The HFPA, for sure. And trust me, they know the Oscar narrative – netflix will spare no expense or time to have Glenn suck up to them, even if it’s over zoom or whatever. And it’s the HFPA that starts the ball rolling in Supporting (case in point: Allison Janney) – everybody else seems to follow suit. The last time when it wasn’t the case was Mahershala losing to ATJ (who ended up snubbed). I think that also played a part in his winning for GB, but the movie was also really strong that year.
SAG (with the extended membership) is the most populist – in Glenn’s (or Viola’s) case, that is a GREAT thing (and had already been proven so); with Sir Anthony Hopkins and Chadwick, THAT will be a close and exciting race. I am thinking Globe for Hopkins, SAG for Chadwick, Bafta for Hopkins, Oscar for Hopkins (especially if Viola is winning). But that’s a different thread.October 29, 2020 at 1:30 pm #1203809800
Erm you literally said they were journalists, imagine the exposure and buzz they will receive when they start Chadwick train? That is too much to resist lol, esp for them…
yeah i would say GG and SAG are Boseman most likely pickups. Racist BAFTA more likely to award Hopkins.October 29, 2020 at 1:41 pm #1203809828
I also would like to remind everyone that is much easier for an actor to win a supporting Oscar for a mixed reviewed and buzzless movie than a leading one.October 29, 2020 at 6:28 pm #1203810291
Seyfried and Colman and close seem like locks to me. That leaves two spots and I’m going with Borats daughter and RonanOctober 29, 2020 at 6:38 pm #1203810316
That’s the only way to explain how Denzel beat Affleck who won literally everything else (other than his performance being louder and more “actor-ey” but I don’t think it’s that relevant) This said the overdue factor didn’t help Pacino or Pesci beating Pitt like some were predicting
Also Meryl winning for Doubt over Winslet.October 29, 2020 at 7:03 pm #1203810326
Also Judi Dench winning for Chocolat.
It's about the chaotic editing in Moulin Rouge!October 29, 2020 at 7:34 pm #1203810342
Mank social media embargo lifted and Seyfried is getting the most raves. Glenn Close still in dangerOctober 29, 2020 at 7:41 pm #1203810350
glenn is shaking right now lolOctober 29, 2020 at 7:50 pm #1203810367
I’m so here for Amanda Seyfried getting that oscar nod.
Director: Chloé Zhao, "Nomadland"
Actor: Delroy Lindo, "Da 5 Bloods"
Actress: Carey Mulligan, "Promising Young Woman"
Supporting Actor: Glynn Turman, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"
Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung, "Minari"
"Don't be a Republican" - Lady Bird RonanNot now
The topic ‘Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 2)’ is closed to new replies.