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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 3)

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    ShinySeaDiamond
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    #1203845558

    The thing about Ammonite is that of the principal female actors, Ronan has the least buzz. Winslet got career best notices and even the most tepid reviews generally had positive things to say about Shaw. Ronan never coattails, she’s always has the most buzzed/acclaimed (or co acclaimed in the case of Lady Bird) performance of her cast when she gets in. For the sake of comparison, she was a non factor for MQOS where Robbie got the better critical notices and made it to two precursors.

    I can see Shaw getting in without Winslet in lead though, not only because of the discrepancy in competition between the categories but also due to the exposure and buzz she has from Killing Eve. Moreover, for a LGBTQ+ themed movie, it may be fitting to nominate the LGBTQ+ actor.

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    Pranksalot
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    #1203846835

    My predicted supporting best actress based on my personal perspective of buzz and reviews:

    1) Olivia Colman

    2) Amanda seyfried

    3) Ellen burstyn

    4) Saoirse Ronan

    5) ***I have no idea

    I think these four actresses are most likely getting the nominations unless something big happens within the next few months.

    Glenn close is no longer included in my list since her movie has under 30 percent and over a hundred reviews. Not a chance.

     

     

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    ShinySeaDiamond
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    #1203846856

    With Malcolm and Marie moving to February, Netflix might want to move Loren here. Many reviewers felt that Ibrahima Gueye was the true lead, so a move may not even register as category fraud. If she does move, she’ll have the narrative that the current frontrunners, Seyfried and Colman, lack.

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    AlexNZ
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    #1203846877

    When those reviews dropped my immediate reaction was “okay I know actors can come back from bad reviews but these are so bad that surely she can’t win” … But now I still have her in my number 1 spot because if she doesn’t win who does? I’m sure Seyfried, Coleman and probably Burstyn will be nominated but they are very much mentioned in the second or third sentence when someone is praising their films. People won’t go out of their way to give them trophies for those performances… Especially since 2 of them already have Oscars and Seyfried will feel like a winner just for getting her first nomination… Ronan’s film sounds like it is too cold for the academy, everyone else – Yuh-Jung Youn, Bakalova, I guess Toni Collette etc are really going to be on the bubnle for the nomination so I don’t see any of them winning.

    So until I’m proven otherwise I’m going to keep Close in number 1. If nothing else, with lack of competition voters may push her to the win simply because they love her and want her to have an Oscar… Despite this it must be said that even though academy members will undoubtedly like it more than critics, the reviews are so bad that it isn’t getting picture and it won’t be as easy for her as it would’ve been if the film was received at a level of say Jojo Rabbit or Bohemian Rhapsody (which were at the level Hillbilly would likely be at if the bad reviews were just because of politics as many people claim)

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    CateNicole
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    #1203846941

    When those reviews dropped my immediate reaction was “okay I know actors can come back from bad reviews but these are so bad that surely she can’t win” … But now I still have her in my number 1 spot because if she doesn’t win who does? I’m sure Seyfried, Coleman and probably Burstyn will be nominated but they are very much mentioned in the second or third sentence when someone is praising their films. People won’t go out of their way to give them trophies for those performances… Especially since 2 of them already have Oscars and Seyfried will feel like a winner just for getting her first nomination… Ronan’s film sounds like it is too cold for the academy, everyone else – Yuh-Jung Youn, Bakalova, I guess Toni Collette etc are really going to be on the bubnle for the nomination so I don’t see any of them winning. So until I’m proven otherwise I’m going to keep Close in number 1. If nothing else, with lack of competition voters may push her to the win simply because they love her and want her to have an Oscar… Despite this it must be said that even though academy members will undoubtedly like it more than critics, the reviews are so bad that it isn’t getting picture and it won’t be as easy for her as it would’ve been if the film was received at a level of say Jojo Rabbit or Bohemian Rhapsody (which were at the level Hillbilly would likely be at if the bad reviews were just because of politics as many people claim)

    I’m honestly expecting Burstyn to win at this point. But if Youn blows us out of the park, then her. I could see it being Seyfried, but I think it’s unlikely.

    Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a little extra love to actors in their 70s/80s getting noms (and wins) because of rejuvenated respect for the elderly, which has grown in our culture worldwide–I’m from USA and I rly feel it has grown here–during this pandemic. Both Loren and Burstyn would be new historic records in age, and seriously it looks like they’re both gonna have perfect performances, no bum moments.

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    Pranksalot
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    #1203847006

    When those reviews dropped my immediate reaction was “okay I know actors can come back from bad reviews but these are so bad that surely she can’t win” … But now I still have her in my number 1 spot because if she doesn’t win who does? I’m sure Seyfried, Coleman and probably Burstyn will be nominated but they are very much mentioned in the second or third sentence when someone is praising their films. People won’t go out of their way to give them trophies for those performances… Especially since 2 of them already have Oscars and Seyfried will feel like a winner just for getting her first nomination… Ronan’s film sounds like it is too cold for the academy, everyone else – Yuh-Jung Youn, Bakalova, I guess Toni Collette etc are really going to be on the bubnle for the nomination so I don’t see any of them winning. So until I’m proven otherwise I’m going to keep Close in number 1. If nothing else, with lack of competition voters may push her to the win simply because they love her and want her to have an Oscar… Despite this it must be said that even though academy members will undoubtedly like it more than critics, the reviews are so bad that it isn’t getting picture and it won’t be as easy for her as it would’ve been if the film was received at a level of say Jojo Rabbit or Bohemian Rhapsody (which were at the level Hillbilly would likely be at if the bad reviews were just because of politics as many people claim)

    I don’t think they’re even going to nominate her for a movie that is getting terribly raked even if her performance was the highlight and even if she’s considered overdue for an Oscar. I haven’t heard of any movie that was tear apart so badly but still received nominations in the acting department.

    There’s no clear front runner at the moment, so it’s going to be a surprise when we see who actually wins. This year is rather a weak year in contenders due to the pandemic most likely.

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    Heptapod
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    #1203847046

    Can we please get Dominique Fishback added to the prediction centers for Judas?

    Oh and Natasha Lyonne for Billie Holiday while we’re at it?

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    jez89
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    #1203847064

    When those reviews dropped my immediate reaction was “okay I know actors can come back from bad reviews but these are so bad that surely she can’t win” … But now I still have her in my number 1 spot because if she doesn’t win who does? I’m sure Seyfried, Coleman and probably Burstyn will be nominated but they are very much mentioned in the second or third sentence when someone is praising their films. People won’t go out of their way to give them trophies for those performances… Especially since 2 of them already have Oscars and Seyfried will feel like a winner just for getting her first nomination… Ronan’s film sounds like it is too cold for the academy, everyone else – Yuh-Jung Youn, Bakalova, I guess Toni Collette etc are really going to be on the bubnle for the nomination so I don’t see any of them winning. So until I’m proven otherwise I’m going to keep Close in number 1. If nothing else, with lack of competition voters may push her to the win simply because they love her and want her to have an Oscar… Despite this it must be said that even though academy members will undoubtedly like it more than critics, the reviews are so bad that it isn’t getting picture and it won’t be as easy for her as it would’ve been if the film was received at a level of say Jojo Rabbit or Bohemian Rhapsody (which were at the level Hillbilly would likely be at if the bad reviews were just because of politics as many people claim)

    This is exactly on the mark. It looks like being a weak field. If Dern could win for a cameo last year and a few sassy lines then Close can easily win this year amongst these contenders. People are reading way too much in to the earl reviews for the film.

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    CateNicole
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    #1203847078

    Thinking back on Dern’s performance, I think what got her the Oscar is–in addition to obvious narrative and status on boards and all–how perfectly her very pointed way of speaking worked for this lawyer who clearly is not entirely over her own divorce and so desperately wants to win in life and avenge women in their own dissolution of their marriage. Nora thus seems a little unhinged frankly, and this imbued the character with much more flavor than it could have had with a different actor.

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    marty
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    #1203847148

    I’m sure Seyfried, Coleman and probably Burstyn will be nominated but they are very much mentioned in the second or third sentence when someone is praising their films. People won’t go out of their way to give them trophies for those performances… Especially since 2 of them already have Oscars and Seyfried will feel like a winner just for getting her first nomination… Ronan’s film sounds like it is too cold for the academy, everyone else – Yuh-Jung Youn, Bakalova, I guess Toni Collette etc are really going to be on the bubnle for the nomination so I don’t see any of them winning.

    This is some Olympic level reaching…

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    marty
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    #1203847150

    This is exactly on the mark. It looks like being a weak field. If Dern could win for a cameo last year and a few sassy lines then Close can easily win this year amongst these contenders. People are reading way too much in to the earl reviews for the film.

    This is such nonsense. From what angle is this a weak field? Seyfried, Colman, Burstyn, Youn all have rave reviews. So did Dern. That’s not even considering all the potential in movies that haven’t come out yet- Fishback, Zengel, Kidman. Ronan has 4 nominations before the age of 25. I have always rooted for Glenn but this level of stubborn-ness is ridiculous.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    marty
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    #1203847223

    They did not lie, Seyfried isn’t unbeatable, she’s the frontrunner by default meaning her train is easily derail-able. Burstyn will be lucky to get nominated, when PoaW premiered at TIFF no one mentioned her, this is just twitter and Oscars pundits doing their thing aka pushing their fav to a nomination. The same people still pretend she was #2 in 2001 when Laura Linney clearly was the runner up that year. Colman is in for a 2nd win just two years after her first, it’s something you shouldn’t bet on as it rarely happens.

    And? All of that means Close is going to win for a performance that isn’t acclaimed in a movie that is completely panned? That’s how an Oscar race works. There are multiple contenders fighting for their place in the line up. Do you people actually think it’s a regular occurrence for all stars to align for an actor? No, there are always a gajillion other factors in play- “she doesn’t have enough screentime” “she’s overshadowed” “her reviews are just okay” “her movie isn’t strong” etc. etc. That’s a fact of life.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    Melvinezq
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    Aug 7th, 2020
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    #1203847293

      Dern could win for a cameo last year and a few sassy lines 

    Can you just not use this comparison? First, Marriage Story was raved and HE was not. There are more than 50 score gap between those two films. Second, her narrative was undeniably strong. My argument can be seen in the previous pages. Honouring her was not only about “honouring her”, but also “honouring parts of the system that has never been honoured before.” The case is just so different now. No one really has that amount of narrative as Dern had. Not Seyfriend, “the ingenue”, Colman, “awarded enough”, Burstyn, “old friend”, or even Close, “we don’t want honour her for this mess.”

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    marty
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    #1203847402

    The only contender my comment completely dismissed as a winner was Burstyn.

    We were talking about a comment saying that “because of X reasons for the other actresses, Close is still the likeliest to win”.

    FYC:

    Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)

    Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

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    Kelvin
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    Mar 10th, 2020
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    #1203847450

    another major difference between laura and glenn is that her performance was well received by critics while glenn is borderline panned

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