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With the ways lots of films are flopping this year I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Pieces of a Woman slipped into Best Picture. I’m serious! I’m not predicting it to happen but I wouldn’t be surprised either.
Yeah I’m feeling that too. Not that it will happen, just that it seems like something that if it happened would be unsurprising, if that makes sense. Not predicting it.
FYC:
Best Director - Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Darius Marder (Sound of Metal)
Lead Actor - Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods), Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Supporting Actor - Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)
Yeah I’m feeling that too. Not that it will happen, just that it seems like something that if it happened would be unsurprising, if that makes sense. Not predicting it.
I mean people act like it hasn’t been in consideration for any industry awards but it just got long listed at the BIFA awards for Best International Feature. Yes I know that’s the British industry but it does show that the support for the film is there.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Tge older members of the Academy would all have to suddenly have a heart attack before that ever happens.
After actually seeing the film, I have to agree. Borat 2’s only chance is in Adapted Screenplay, just like the first film. However, I could see Bakalova getting a Comedy Globe nomination for Best Actress.
John's Best of 2020
Best Picture: Soul
Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
Best Original Screenplay: Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight SkyAfter actually seeing the film, I have to agree. Borat 2’s only chance is in Adapted Screenplay, just like the first film. However, I could see Bakalova getting a Comedy Globe nomination for Best Actress.
I mean it’s not even only the older members of the Academy.
People are overestimating Borat 2. Even at the Globes (although SBC can easily win again and probably will if Murray goes supporting). It remains a Sacha Baron Cohen mockumentary that is a sequel (the Academy don’t often go for sequels). Bakalova was great but at best she gets in at the Globes. Its buzz also has died off a bit (I haven’t heard a murmur about it since the two weeks after its release).
Its only chances are Adapted Screenplay and Hair and Makeup. Even Ronan AND Shaw are probably ahead of Bakalova.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Hair and Makeup
Oh damn, I didn’t even think about it in Hair and Makeup. It probably will be nominated there.
John's Best of 2020
Best Picture: Soul
Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
Best Original Screenplay: Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight SkyI’ve had Kate and Saoirse as having an outside chance at their respective races but I’m not entirely sure if they even have enough buzz. For example the film has been out for two weeks in the US and I have seen zero buzz for it when I’ve searched for tweets for it from US film twitter accounts I follow. In fact when I searched Ammonite the fourth search result was from someone who had a twitter account called ammonite who tweeted a fan cam of The Crown‘s Princess Diana.
I guess Saoirse could theoretically get a name-check nomination with how open her field is but the buzz for this film has massively died out already. I don’t see Kate happening outside of the Globes and maybe BAFTA.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
I’ve had Kate and Saoirse as having an outside chance at their respective races but I’m not entirely sure if they even have enough buzz. For example the film has been out for two weeks in the US and I have seen zero buzz for it when I’ve searched for tweets for it from US film twitter accounts I follow. In fact when I searched Ammonite the fourth search result was from someone who had a twitter account called ammonite who tweeted a fan cam of The Crown‘s Princess Diana. I guess Saoirse could theoretically get a name-check nomination with how open her field is but the buzz for this film has massively died out already. I don’t see Kate happening outside of the Globes and maybe BAFTA.
I agree with this. Ronan’s nomination depends entirely on how empty the Supporting Actress category remains. If it continues to be empty, she’s in. If new contenders start to emerge, then she’s out.
Kate’s nomination depends on the critic awards, I think, and Neon’s campaign. Her biggest strength in the beginning was that she was getting career-best raves, but those don’t matter if she’s not given support. Just look at Alfre Woodard. If Neon doesn’t campaign effectively, and Kate fails to win (which is very likely) or make the cut at any of the major critic awards, I don’t see why the precursors would throw their support behind her.
John's Best of 2020
Best Picture: Soul
Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
Best Original Screenplay: Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight SkyI agree with this. Ronan’s nomination depends entirely on how empty the Supporting Actress category remains. If it continues to be empty, she’s in. If new contenders start to emerge, then she’s out.
I mean we could literally be overthinking and end up with a lineup of Burstyn, Close, Colman, Ronan and Seyfried because of how empty the field is with the win being between Colman and Seyfried and with Burstyn, Close and Ronan being filler.
At the moment I have Kidman and Collins in but that’s just because of the points. This category is a mess.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Fishback, Lyonne, Foster and/or Zengel will probably end up filling the rest of this category
With the ways lots of films are flopping this year I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Pieces of a Woman slipped into Best Picture. I’m serious! I’m not predicting it to happen but I wouldn’t be surprised either.
What films (in plural) flopped this year? I can only name Hillbilly Elegy and maybe Ammonite but what else?
Fishback, Lyonne, Foster and/or Zengel will probably end up filling the rest of this category
Foster is in imo (I only have Collins in because Foster isn’t in the predictions centre yet) but we don’t know much about Fishback’s role yet (she could be a thankless cameo lol), Billie Holliday could get moved and News of the World could flop.
It’s too early.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Fishback’s role yet (she could be a thankless cameo lol)
I really doubt she’s a cameo, she’s literally playing Deborah Johnson who was Fred Hampton’s pregnant girlfriend at the time, so I’m predicting she’ll have somewhat of a significant role.
Billie Holliday could get moved and News of the World could flop.
As of right now, Billie Holiday has a release date, so I don’t think anyone should be writing this film off till they take it off the schedule. I’m not really confident in News, but I have a feeling that voters will most likely end up liking the film way more than critics will. These three ladies have wayyy better chances than most of the random people you’ve been predicting as of late (Parker, Williams, Collins).
What films (in plural) flopped this year? I can only name Hillbilly Elegy and maybe Ammonite but what else?
Remember when Tenet was predicted to get into BP?
FYC:
Lead Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)
Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Supporting Actor: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
the random people you’ve been predicting as of late (Parker, Williams, Collins).
I’ve never actually predicted Williams or Parker in my lineup I’ve just not ruled them out either.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
I watched Hillbilly a few days ago and my (unpopular) take is that Glenn Close was absolutely great. I did not in any way find her performance to be hammy; quite the opposite actually: I found it to be beautifully grounded. Of course the transformation aspect of it at all and her dialogue could have easily led to an unbearably hammy, over-the-top performance, but that did not end up being the case IMO. I think she is still very much in this race (to be nominated and win), and Hillbilly is, as expected, doing much better with GA than with critics. If you disagree, that’s fine.
A Fervent Believer in the Church of Viola Davis
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