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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 7)

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    Gwen
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    #1203981337

    If all the critics prizes were so indicative of Oscar glory, then Never Rarely Sometimes Always and First Cow would be competing for Best Picture against Nomadland. And nothing else would be close. But we all know neither of the former two are getting any nods (Screenplay at a real push is the best either will be hoping for). I know we’re all bored in lockdowns and at home, and there are still two months of awards season to go…but let’s not lose sight of the typical awards season cycle we’re in. Yes, One Night In Miami is going to be Amazon’s main push – especially now it’s coming out this week (Sound of Metal was released earlier, hence publicity earlier). Regina King is far more likely to get a Director nod than Marder. It’s far more likely to pic up acting nods. It’s probably gonna win Adapted Screenplay. It’s getting a Best Pic nod. I know it’s steering off topic from Supporting Actress, and I will get back on track now.

    I think Close could easily win this for the same reasons. If she ends up being nominated for Hillbilly Elegy, even if it will be the only nomination for the movie, I don’t see how they won’t feel like rewarding her, especially after the mortifying loss in 2019. I’d prefer seeing her win with a better movie and role, but I liked her in HE and I’ve seen veterans taking the golden dildo with far poorer performances…

    EDIT It’s off topic, but what you think of Promising Young Woman’s chances?

     

    2021 Award Season, FYC:

    Best Actress: CAREY MULLIGAN for PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
    Best Actor: DELROY LINDO for DA 5 BLOODS
    Best Supporting Actress: GLENN CLOSE for HILLBILLY ELEGY

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    noson
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    #1203981351

    You know, I always have and will continue to think that no matter who’s nominated at critics awards, Glenn is winning this. The category simply does not have a frontrunner or someone with passion and if there is someone that fits the second case their film is preventing them from winning (Bakalova, Yuh-jung (I’m hesitant to think they’ll finally embrace an Asian movie that isn’t big hit like Parasite). So the awards trajectory of this season I feel like will be (if nominated of course) Glenn – GG, CC and SAG, Colman – BAFTA. However, it seems that not even British awards bodies care for Colman this year so BAFTA will be toss up. If Glenn is nominated there which I very much doubt and has swept the previous 3, she’s probably winning, but given her track record with BAFTA I don’t see it. So, unless a British nominee from some underrated british production (like Hayley Squires) wins, I think Seyfried might win BAFTA and subsequently take Oscar too despite Glenn’s almost full sweep. Otherwise, Colman’s BAFTA win won’t affect the Oscars outcome. But I’m beginning to reconsider Seyfried even for doing the absolute minimum in her movie to justify a nod.

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    SN
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    #1203981358

    One Night in Miami (13 festivals) – Venice, Toronto, Zurich, London, Hamptons, Mill Valley, Middleburg, AFI, Chicago, Montclair, Savannah, Los Cabos, Stockholm

    Pieces of a Woman (2 festivals) – Venice, Toronto

    I think it’s very clear that One Night in Miami doesn’t have the same visibility issues Pieces of a Woman had.

    So? Both were still screened in the two most important festivals.

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    DCurrie
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    #1203981373

    Looks Dominique Fishback is looking to make a splash in the supporting actress race.

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    wolfali
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    #1203981453

    So? Both were still screened in the two most important festivals.

    Except one had larger visibility than the other by screening at 10 additional festivals (two of which – AFI and London are quite significant although obviously not as much as Venice and Toronto). To say both films had the same lack of visibility is factually incorrect.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    JackO
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    #1203981514

    Ben-Adir has 0 citations in the Best Actor race

    He literally just won gotham over Sidney Flanigan who you said would get into GG drama actress.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203981532

    Finally saw Pieces of a Woman a couple of days ago. Burstyn was fine but she wasn’t in the film for very long at all. And she suffers from the same problem as Kirby, where when I was watching her scenes I didn’t see whoever her character was supposed to be, I just saw Ellen Burstyn acting really hard.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    Butz
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    #1203981537

    He literally just won gotham over Sidney Flanigan who you said would get into GG drama actress.

    Against exactly no one that is in the Lead Actor conversation.

    FYC:

    Lead Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

    Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

    Supporting Actor: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

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    wolfali
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    #1203981563

    He literally just won gotham

    Where the film received no other nominations.

    Sidney Flanigan who you said would get into GG drama actress.

    I said she “had a chance at a Drama Actress nomination at the Globes”. Look at my post about that specific race on the Globes thread today.

    And she suffers from the same problem as Kirby, where when I was watching her scenes I didn’t see whoever her character was supposed to be, I just saw Ellen Burstyn acting really hard.

    My personal qualitative thoughts aside I have to say you’re the only person I have seen raising this as a problem. With the two (Kirby specifically) I’ve only seen praise for her performance being natural. But then again this is the S. Actress thread not the Actress one and I was just making an observation.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    galaxy98
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    #1203982072

    Predicted line-up:

    Amanda Seyfried, Mank

    Ellen Burstyn, Pieces Of A Woman

    Olivia Colman, The Father

    Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

    Charlene Swankie, Nomadland

     

    Could sneak in:

    Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

    Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

    Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

    Meryl Streep, The Prom

    Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite

    Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian

     

    long-shots:

    Candice Bergen, Let Them All Talk

    Dominique Fishback, Judas And The Black Messiah

    Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal

    Toni Collette, I’m Thinking Of Ending Things

    Helene Zengel, News Of The World

    Talia Ryder, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

     

    Almost impossible:

    Molly Parker, Pieces Of A Woman

    Laverne Cox, Promising Young Woman

    Fiona Shaw, Ammonite

    Linda May, Nomadland

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    Harmonia
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    Jan 8th, 2018
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    #1203982091

    Chopra Jonas started campaigning this week since The White Tiger is out next week. I wonder if it’ll move the needle at all (I don’t suspect it would, but it’ll at least increase her critical visibility).

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    wolfali
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    #1203982415

    Not one of the experts predicting Laverne Cox’s thankless role for a Golden Globe nomination…

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Brae
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    #1203982421

    Not one of the experts predicting Laverne Cox’s thankless role for a Golden Globe nomination…

    Laverne Cox’s role was probably the only thing I disliked about the entire film. Not Cox herself, she’s delightful — but the role plays into some tired tropes that I wasn’t expecting to show up in such a forward-thinking kind of story. There really wasn’t any S. Actress performances in PYW that stand out, maybe Alison Brie? At least she’s in more than one scene or I’d have said Connie Britton? There just aren’t any options. I’d love to see Burnam nominated though because I only really care about 2 of the S. Actor potentials tbh.

    FYC:

    BEST ACTRESS — CAREY MULLIGAN
    BEST ACTOR — RIZ AHMED

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    M: The Original
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    #1203982578

    Not one of the experts predicting Laverne Cox’s thankless role for a Golden Globe nomination…

    The Globes aren’t anxious to recognize trans performers. See their reaction to Pose.

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    wolfali
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    #1203982773

    The Dig starts off at 72 on MC. Maybe Carey Mulligan does pull a Holly Hunter ’93 after all.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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