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If all the critics prizes were so indicative of Oscar glory, then Never Rarely Sometimes Always and First Cow would be competing for Best Picture against Nomadland. And nothing else would be close. But we all know neither of the former two are getting any nods (Screenplay at a real push is the best either will be hoping for). I know we’re all bored in lockdowns and at home, and there are still two months of awards season to go…but let’s not lose sight of the typical awards season cycle we’re in. Yes, One Night In Miami is going to be Amazon’s main push – especially now it’s coming out this week (Sound of Metal was released earlier, hence publicity earlier). Regina King is far more likely to get a Director nod than Marder. It’s far more likely to pic up acting nods. It’s probably gonna win Adapted Screenplay. It’s getting a Best Pic nod. I know it’s steering off topic from Supporting Actress, and I will get back on track now.
I think Close could easily win this for the same reasons. If she ends up being nominated for Hillbilly Elegy, even if it will be the only nomination for the movie, I don’t see how they won’t feel like rewarding her, especially after the mortifying loss in 2019. I’d prefer seeing her win with a better movie and role, but I liked her in HE and I’ve seen veterans taking the golden dildo with far poorer performances…
EDIT It’s off topic, but what you think of Promising Young Woman’s chances?
ReplyCopy URL2021 Award Season, FYC:
Best Actress: CAREY MULLIGAN for PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Best Actor: DELROY LINDO for DA 5 BLOODS
Best Supporting Actress: GLENN CLOSE for HILLBILLY ELEGYYou know, I always have and will continue to think that no matter who’s nominated at critics awards, Glenn is winning this. The category simply does not have a frontrunner or someone with passion and if there is someone that fits the second case their film is preventing them from winning (Bakalova, Yuh-jung (I’m hesitant to think they’ll finally embrace an Asian movie that isn’t big hit like Parasite). So the awards trajectory of this season I feel like will be (if nominated of course) Glenn – GG, CC and SAG, Colman – BAFTA. However, it seems that not even British awards bodies care for Colman this year so BAFTA will be toss up. If Glenn is nominated there which I very much doubt and has swept the previous 3, she’s probably winning, but given her track record with BAFTA I don’t see it. So, unless a British nominee from some underrated british production (like Hayley Squires) wins, I think Seyfried might win BAFTA and subsequently take Oscar too despite Glenn’s almost full sweep. Otherwise, Colman’s BAFTA win won’t affect the Oscars outcome. But I’m beginning to reconsider Seyfried even for doing the absolute minimum in her movie to justify a nod.
ReplyCopy URLOne Night in Miami (13 festivals) – Venice, Toronto, Zurich, London, Hamptons, Mill Valley, Middleburg, AFI, Chicago, Montclair, Savannah, Los Cabos, Stockholm
Pieces of a Woman (2 festivals) – Venice, Toronto
I think it’s very clear that One Night in Miami doesn’t have the same visibility issues Pieces of a Woman had.
So? Both were still screened in the two most important festivals.
ReplyCopy URLSo? Both were still screened in the two most important festivals.
Except one had larger visibility than the other by screening at 10 additional festivals (two of which – AFI and London are quite significant although obviously not as much as Venice and Toronto). To say both films had the same lack of visibility is factually incorrect.
ReplyCopy URLFYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Finally saw Pieces of a Woman a couple of days ago. Burstyn was fine but she wasn’t in the film for very long at all. And she suffers from the same problem as Kirby, where when I was watching her scenes I didn’t see whoever her character was supposed to be, I just saw Ellen Burstyn acting really hard.
ReplyCopy URLJohn's Best of 2020
Best Picture: Soul
Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
Best Original Screenplay: Soul
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight SkyHe literally just won gotham over Sidney Flanigan who you said would get into GG drama actress.
Against exactly no one that is in the Lead Actor conversation.
ReplyCopy URLFYC:
Lead Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)
Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Supporting Actor: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
He literally just won gotham
Where the film received no other nominations.
Sidney Flanigan who you said would get into GG drama actress.
I said she “had a chance at a Drama Actress nomination at the Globes”. Look at my post about that specific race on the Globes thread today.
And she suffers from the same problem as Kirby, where when I was watching her scenes I didn’t see whoever her character was supposed to be, I just saw Ellen Burstyn acting really hard.
My personal qualitative thoughts aside I have to say you’re the only person I have seen raising this as a problem. With the two (Kirby specifically) I’ve only seen praise for her performance being natural. But then again this is the S. Actress thread not the Actress one and I was just making an observation.
ReplyCopy URLFYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Predicted line-up:
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces Of A Woman
Olivia Colman, The Father
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Charlene Swankie, Nomadland
Could sneak in:
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Meryl Streep, The Prom
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
long-shots:
Candice Bergen, Let Them All Talk
Dominique Fishback, Judas And The Black Messiah
Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal
Toni Collette, I’m Thinking Of Ending Things
Helene Zengel, News Of The World
Talia Ryder, Never Rarely Sometimes Always
Almost impossible:
Molly Parker, Pieces Of A Woman
Laverne Cox, Promising Young Woman
Fiona Shaw, Ammonite
Linda May, Nomadland
ReplyCopy URLNot one of the experts predicting Laverne Cox’s thankless role for a Golden Globe nomination…
ReplyCopy URLFYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
Not one of the experts predicting Laverne Cox’s thankless role for a Golden Globe nomination…
Laverne Cox’s role was probably the only thing I disliked about the entire film. Not Cox herself, she’s delightful — but the role plays into some tired tropes that I wasn’t expecting to show up in such a forward-thinking kind of story. There really wasn’t any S. Actress performances in PYW that stand out, maybe Alison Brie? At least she’s in more than one scene or I’d have said Connie Britton? There just aren’t any options. I’d love to see Burnam nominated though because I only really care about 2 of the S. Actor potentials tbh.
ReplyCopy URLFYC:
BEST ACTRESS — CAREY MULLIGAN
BEST ACTOR — RIZ AHMEDThe Dig starts off at 72 on MC. Maybe Carey Mulligan does pull a Holly Hunter ’93 after all.
ReplyCopy URLFYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"
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