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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 7)

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    Fletcher
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    #1203988519

    Bakalova can win any critics prize she wants, I won’t predict her until she gets in at BAFTA. I just don’t see her happening at the televised awards outside of Globes and CC.

    This tweet left me in doubt

    https://twitter.com/ErickWeber/status/1350839342957293568

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    TVLUVAH
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    #1203988526

    I thought Bakalova was great in “Borat” and easily the best part of the film, but I don’t see her happening anywhere except CC…. Or Globes (if she’s lead for comedy/musical).

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    Butz
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    This tweet left me in doubt

    https://twitter.com/ErickWeber/status/1350839342957293568

    No taste at all. Disgusting.

    FYC:

    Lead Actor: Mads Mikkelsen (Another Round)

    Supporting Actress: Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

    Supporting Actor: Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)

    -----------------------------

    Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges

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    Bassett
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    #1203988577

    This tweet left me in doubt https://twitter.com/ErickWeber/status/1350839342957293568

    Lol. I guess the first Borat didn’t look like an “award film” to him either ?

    FYC :

    Best Actress - Viola Davis, Frances McDormand
    Best Actor - Delroy Lindo, Chadwick Boseman
    Best Supporting Actor - Colman Domingo, Glynn Turman
    Best Picture - Nomadland
    Best Director - Chloé Zhao
    SAG Ensemble - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    Best Cinematography - Nomadland

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    Sir Shaw
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    #1203988590

    This tweet left me in doubt https://twitter.com/ErickWeber/status/1350839342957293568

    “Not an awards film”, wow the gatekeeping and pretentious jumped out.

    Black Panther, Get Out, Logan and Mad Max weren’t “awards films” either and yet all Academy Award nominated pictures.

    Funny that.

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    SN
    Joined:
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    #1203988600

    Bakalova is really coming for that nomination, huh? Who would’ve thought

    This year’s J-Lo.

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    Atypical
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    Bakalova isn’t leaving my predictions. She’s more than earned her position.

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    Monsoon 🌊
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    This tweet left me in doubt

    https://twitter.com/ErickWeber/status/1350839342957293568

    The definition of an “awards film” has changed significantly in the past decade.

    If a movie or performance is worthy of recognition (solely based on merit), why should it matter?

    The sentiment presented in this tweet is the exact reason why most average people don’t care about these kinds of things.

    👑Cicely Tyson (1924-2021)
    👑Mary Wilson (1944-2021)

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203989164

    This year’s J-Lo.

    This comparison makes no sense regardless of what happens with Bakalova. Lopez had to overcome a whole career of mediocre and poorly-reviewed movies to be taken seriously as a contender, and we know on an anecdotal level that some voters were unable to do that. Not to mention her film’s distributor was STX. Bakalova has Amazon backing her, and being a newcomer in a comedic role she has a combination of factors which has scored in this category in the past. (This is allowing for her film being a mockumentary rather than a straight fictional comedy.)

    But as you mention Lopez, sometimes I wonder if she might have scored the nom if her role had been more comedic. Perhaps voters just didn’t buy her as a dramatic actress.

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    SN
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    #1203989257

    This comparison makes no sense regardless of what happens with Bakalova. Lopez had to overcome a whole career of mediocre and poorly-reviewed movies to be taken seriously as a contender, and we know on an anecdotal level that some voters were unable to do that. Not to mention her film’s distributor was STX. Bakalova has Amazon backing her, and being a newcomer in a comedic role she has a combination of factors which has scored in this category in the past. (This is allowing for her film being a mockumentary rather than a straight fictional comedy.)

    But as you mention Lopez, sometimes I wonder if she might have scored the nom if her role had been more comedic. Perhaps voters just didn’t buy her as a dramatic actress.

    This comparison is in the sense they’re both critics and pundits darlings and the only competitive category (at least above the line) in their respective films.

    Bakalova is a nobody actress in a comedy sequel. She has things to overcome.

    STX is a crappy distributor but I don’t think it had a lot to do with J-Lo snub. Otherwise, she wouldn’t have been nominated for the Globe or SAG. Visibility and campaign wasn’t a problem for her.

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    AayaanUpadhyaya
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    #1203989296

    I am waiting to see if Bakalova gets in at SAG and/or the Baftas. The moment she hits either one of those, I’ll predict her. If she misses both SAG and Bafta, she is not happening, even if she wins the Globe.

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    wolfali
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    I am waiting to see if Bakalova gets in at SAG and/or the Baftas. The moment she hits either one of those, I’ll predict her. If she misses both SAG and Bafta, she is not happening, even if she wins the Globe.

    I think she could pull an Awkwafina and win the Globe but only get a rising star nomination at BAFTA.

    That way the BAFTA rising star category went from empty to ultra competitive…

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    John Berchmans
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    I was hesitant about Maria Bakalova before but with how dominant she’s been at the critic award and how empty this category is, I have a hard time seeing her get snubbed: especially if she wins the Globe. And Borat 2 is getting into Adapted Screenplay with how empty that category is (and maybe Makeup as well) so it’s not unreasonable to think that Bakalova will get votes too.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Dominique Fishback
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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    SN
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    #1203989426

    Borat 2 is getting into Adapted Screenplay with how empty that category is

    It’s probably not getting an Adapted Screenplay nom. It’s not as acclaimed as the first film and people are talking about it mostly because of the Rudy Giuliani scene. If not even critics awards are nominating it for screenplay despite their love for Bakalova, industry is not gonna do that either.

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    John Berchmans
    Joined:
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    #1203989458

    It’s probably not getting an Adapted Screenplay nom. It’s not as acclaimed as the first film and people are talking about it mostly because of the Rudy Giuliani scene. If not even critics awards are nominating it for screenplay despite their love for Bakalova, industry is not gonna do that either.

    Okay, what replaces it then?

    News of the World has no buzz, and almost everyone agrees that if it gets nominated above-the-line it’ll be for just Picture and maybe Director. No one’s predicting it in Screenplay.

    Flopbilly Elegy obviously isn’t getting in.

    Pieces of a Woman only has buzz for Kirby and Burstyn. It’s eligibility here seems tenuous at best.

    What else even is there?

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Direction: The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman
    Best Actress: Viola Davis
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried
    Best Screenplay: Soul

    John's Best of 2021

    Best Picture: Nomadland
    Best Direction: Nomadland
    Best Actor: Lakeith Stanfield
    Best Actress: Frances McDormand
    Best Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya
    Best Supporting Actress: Dominique Fishback
    Best Screenplay: Judas and the Black Messiah

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