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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 8)

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    TVLUVAH
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    #1204004463

    It does feel like Supporting Actress will have different winners at each of the ceremonies… My predicted winners as of now..

    Globes: Amanda Seyfried
    Critics: Youn Yuh-jung
    SAG: Glenn Close
    BAFTA: Olivia Colman
    Oscar: ???

    I’m still leaning to Close for the Oscar but I’d be happy with to actually see Dominque Fishback surprise there too.

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    Owl-Always-watching
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    #1204004488

    So, checking in here: I have had Olivia Colman winning all season. She admittedly has had a bumpier ride than anticipated, but I am sticking with The Father disproportionately being a major player at the televised awards. I see shades of The Imitation Game as a palatable crowd-pleaser. I tend to avoid trailers, so much of my impression of The Father is just the poster that is simply Anthony Hopkins’s face in front of Colman’s. Given that I have never heard about anyone else in the movie, it seems like a two-hander, which means a borderline leading part in supporting for Colman. Then there is how I keep hearing that this is a tearjerker, so Colman probably gets some weighty material. Then there is how Colman is obviously a seasoned professional, so I am sure that she knocks whatever material she has out of the park. So what I gather is that this is a meaty, win-worthy performance in a top-five/three Best Picture contender. And finally, you have the Olivia Colman of it all. She is not young and overexposed like Jennifer Lawrence—nobody is ultimately going to be upset with her getting a second Oscar (so soon after her first). She is both a veteran and a “discovery”. This is not to say that Colman just cruises to industry awards all the time, but I think that she is a very safe default. Putting aside the real visibility issues of The Father, there does seem to be a distinct lack of passion for this performance, exemplified by how she has underperformed even with groups that have responded to Hopkins or the film overall. Why I think that she wins is because I think that this race is missing the necessary proper frontrunner or passionate alternative. I have Maria Bakalova in second for the win because she is the Zendaya of the race. The difference is that the Motion Picture Academy is snootier than their television equivalent. Passion very much rules the day at the Emmys, but you need more of a prestige factor at the Oscars. Bakalova is also getting undermined by Yuh-jung Youn overtaking her as the critical favourite. Amanda Seyfried is the Gold Derby frontrunner, but I do not know what the precedent is for awarding someone so relatively young in this category on their first nomination for such a quiet performance without screen time. I look at what she has and I look at what I imagine Colman has and I very much see this race shifting course once we get to the televised awards.

    ColmAn is supporting . Out of rest of cast , she has bigger supporting role but it’s a small role. She is in poster Bc it’s her. I wouldn’t be surprised if she misses.

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    M: The Original
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    #1204004545

    So, checking in here: I have had Olivia Colman winning all season. She admittedly has had a bumpier ride than anticipated, but I am sticking with The Father disproportionately being a major player at the televised awards. I see shades of The Imitation Game as a palatable crowd-pleaser.

    I tend to avoid trailers, so much of my impression of The Father is just the poster that is simply Anthony Hopkins’s face in front of Colman’s. Given that I have never heard about anyone else in the movie, it seems like a two-hander, which means a borderline leading part in supporting for Colman. Then there is how I keep hearing that this is a tearjerker, so Colman probably gets some weighty material. Then there is how Colman is obviously a seasoned professional, so I am sure that she knocks whatever material she has out of the park. So what I gather is that this is a meaty, win-worthy performance in a top-five/three Best Picture contender. And finally, you have the Olivia Colman of it all. She is not young and overexposed like Jennifer Lawrence—nobody is ultimately going to be upset with her getting a second Oscar (so soon after her first). She is both a veteran and a “discovery”.

    This is not to say that Colman just cruises to industry awards all the time, but I think that she is a very safe default. Putting aside the real visibility issues of The Father, there does seem to be a distinct lack of passion for this performance, exemplified by how she has underperformed even with groups that have responded to Hopkins or the film overall. Why I think that she wins is because I think that this race is missing the necessary proper frontrunner or passionate alternative. I have Maria Bakalova in second for the win because she is the Zendaya of the race. The difference is that the Motion Picture Academy is snootier than their television equivalent. Passion very much rules the day at the Emmys, but you need more of a prestige factor at the Oscars.

    Bakalova is also getting undermined by Yuh-jung Youn overtaking her as the critical favourite. Amanda Seyfried is the Gold Derby frontrunner, but I do not know what the precedent is for awarding someone so relatively young in this category on their first nomination for such a quiet performance without screen time. I look at what she has and I look at what I imagine Colman has and I very much see this race shifting course once we get to the televised awards.

    You sincerely believe the Academy will Swank Colman to Close’s Bening?

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    Canetto
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    #1204004594

    Here to remember, after months since last time, Glenn’s win.

    I will not jump after GG nomination with ‘ like I said’ quote.

    I m bold enough to repeat it now, in front of which one that made fun of me.

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    #1204004638
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    Keth
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    #1204004658

    This is not to say that Colman just cruises to industry awards all the time, but I think that she is a very safe default. Putting aside the real visibility issues of The Father, there does seem to be a distinct lack of passion for this performance, exemplified by how she has underperformed even with groups that have responded to Hopkins or the film overall. Why I think that she wins is because I think that this race is missing the necessary proper frontrunner or passionate alternative. I have Maria Bakalova in second for the win because she is the Zendaya of the race. The difference is that the Motion Picture Academy is snootier than their television equivalent. Passion very much rules the day at the Emmys, but you need more of a prestige factor at the Oscars.

    Or the Academy just wants to hear another honest, funny and surprised winner speech, which Colman delivered. She even remarked that this is not going to happen again, but who knows with Oscar. I haven’t seen The Father but if she delivers then I say why not give her another gold guy.

    Somewhere deep in my mind and my inner layer, I have the feeling if Glenn Close gets nominated for supporting then Oscar is hers. The problem could be just getting nominated – I wasn’t a fan of her performance although she had a moment. Oscar can be fickle, but if enough of the members liked her in Hillbilly Elegy and she gets the nomination, I think she will get the Oscar – for what I consider her worst nominated performance. Then again, if she does get nominated and loses, I guess Oscar voters never really cared enough to give Glenn Close an Academy Award. Which would be sad.

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    Miss
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    #1204005345

    I think Youn could win if A24 plays their cards right. The narrative there is huge.. when was the last time they awarded an Asian actress in this category?

    Also, Youn is brilliant on the campaign trail, absolutely stealing every interview she’s in with her humor and comedic timing. I really don’t see how the others could take this. Close and Burstyn’s films drag them down and they’re will definitely be bias against Seyfried and Bakalova

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    Miles
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    #1204005397

    I have been predicting Burstyn for the win for a while now, but after finally getting around to seeing Pieces of a Woman, I am even more secure in that belief.

    1) The role is very baity. She is sort of a “monster mom” that has won supporting actress Oscars in the past, but she also gets a big, emotional, sympathetic monologue which she obviously knocks out of the park. She is gone for a stretch in the middle, but she is in the movie consistently enough and doesn’t suffer from a lack of screentime.

    2) She’s campaigning and she has openly talked about how she wants to be nominated. People are going to like that. Also, the message Burstyn is trying to send to other actresses to not retire just because people think you should could resonate with older Academy members, and would be a message AMPAS would want to send. Burstyn becoming the oldest nominee/winner is also appealing.

    3) This would only be her second Oscar. The Academy doesn’t have to decide if Burstyn is worthy to join the 3-timers club because she’s only won once before. Yes, it’s a little unorthodox to win in lead first and then supporting, but that doesn’t really apply here because Burstyn won her lead Oscar at such a different phase of her career.

    4) No clear frontrunner. Every other contender has some knock against them in my mind. Burstyn’s barrier is probably her film and the lack of critical support, but the film doesn’t need to be more than an acting play, and the critical love is being split between Youn and Bakalova, both of whom are unknown to the Academy. Burstyn probably won’t sweep, but at the end of the day, I think she’ll walk away with the Oscar.

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    wolfali
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    #1204005411

    The thing that really is making me lean towards Burstyn and Colman is that this category disproportionately favours veterans. Laura Dern, Regina King, Alison Janney, Viola Davis, Patricia Arquette. They both fit the recent mould of winners more than anyone else.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    SN
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    #1204005421

    I think has Burstyn has more chances to be nominated than Kirby at this point.

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    M: The Original
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    #1204005489

    The thing that really is making me lean towards Burstyn and Colman is that this category disproportionately favours veterans. Laura Dern, Regina King, Alison Janney, Viola Davis, Patricia Arquette. They both fit the recent mould of winners more than anyone else.

    The category favors older actresses. Whereas they love awarding starlets in best actress.

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    M: The Original
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    #1204005502

    3) This would only be her second Oscar. The Academy doesn’t have to decide if Burstyn is worthy to join the 3-timers club because she’s only won once before. Yes, it’s a little unorthodox to win in lead first and then supporting, but that doesn’t really apply here because Burstyn won her lead Oscar at such a different phase of her career.

    It wasn’t uncommon starting in the 70s to win a 2nd or in the case of Bergman a 3rd Oscar in supporting.

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    Atypical
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    #1204005508

    Burstyn winning a second Oscar before Close wins a first Oscar isn’t a decision I see Academy voters making. That is if both actresses make it into the category to begin with. I predict that they both do, for the record, but I know that the opposite can occur too.

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    wolfali
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    #1204005560

    The category favors older actresses. Whereas they love awarding starlets in best actress.

    Which is more or less what I said. Both Colman and Burstyn stand better chances due to their veteran status.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    Luca
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    #1204005564

    Burstyn and Colman (??) are veterans, but Close isn’t? There’s only so much bias you can hide.

    A Fervent Believer in the Church of Viola Davis

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