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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress (Part 8)

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203992565

    Does anyone else think Bakalova’s placement is such a fraud? she’s in pretty much every scene with Sacha and even had a storyline by herself.

    I’m mixed on Bakalova because in terms of screen time she’s nearly equal to SBC, but in terms of character arcs she definitely has a supporting arc. I’m okay with it either way: kind of like Brad Pitt last year.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203992572

    Also, am I the only one who thinks Burstyn is actually 5th Place in this category? Youn and Bakalova have already won a bunch of awards and Seyfried and Colman have the advantage of being in Best Picture nominees (which is an advantage Youn will probably have too). What does Burstyn have aside from riding the coattails of Vanessa Kirby’s buzz? I think if a surprise contender like Fishback replaces anyone it’ll be Burstyn.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203992800

    Yeah category confusion is never good. See: Hugh Grant for Florence Foster Jenkins.

    I’m not wholly convinced category confusion was why Hugh Grant missed; he had no problem getting in at BAFTA and this was before the rules were changed to actors only being eligible in their submitted category. Male supporting actors (or frauded co-leads) to female leads have often had trouble at the Oscars recently, especially when not in a film gunning for nominations across the board. Riley did a piece on that very issue at the time I recall.

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    Liebchen
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    #1203992843

    I’m not wholly convinced category confusion was why Hugh Grant missed; he had no problem getting in at BAFTA and this was before the rules were changed to actors only being eligible in their submitted category. Male supporting actors (or frauded co-leads) to female leads have often had trouble at the Oscars recently, especially when not in a film gunning for nominations across the board. Riley did a piece on that very issue at the time I recall.

    I remember Ali and Bridges were a consensus top 2, then Lion was very successful at the box office and performed pretty well at the Oscars including a Best Picture nod, Patel was probably 3rd (Harvey Weinstein distributed the film as well, if I’m not mistaken). Hedges was definitely next in line as he had the advantage of having a strong film, and actors pretty much loved it.

    ATJ despite winning a Golden Globe and making it in at BAFTA, was hurt by the nature of his character, I think Shannon and Grant fought for the last spot, the latter should’ve been in objectively as he’s the one to make Golden Globes, SAG and BAFTA (Meryl also missed Critics Choice), but then again they probably thought Streep was already enough.

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    wolfali
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    #1203993049

    Youn and Bakalova have already won a bunch of awards

    Well I mean just because Youn and Bakalova have won critics awards it doesn’t mean they’re getting nominated at the Oscars.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    maxinho
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    #1203993063

    Youn and Bakalova both will very likely get snubbed at the oscars.

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203993090

    Well I mean just because Youn and Bakalova have won critics awards it doesn’t mean they’re getting nominated at the Oscars.

    Criric favorites are almost always nominated though. Usually only one misses a seacon, and I think this season that’s most likely going to be Raci, for having a very quiet type of performance that the Academy typically ignores.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    wolfali
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    #1203993106

    Criric favorites are almost always nominated though. Usually only one misses a seacon

    Which is why all of Ethan Hawke, Toni Collette, Michael B Jordan and Regina Hall got nominated at the Oscars for their performances in First ReformedHereditaryBlack Panther and Support the Girls at the 2018 Oscars.

    FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"

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    John Berchmans
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    #1203993124

    Which is why all of Ethan Hawke, Toni Collette, Michael B Jordan and Regina Hall got nominated at the Oscars for their performances in First Reformed, Hereditary, Black Panther and Support the Girls at the 2018 Oscars.

    Only Ethan Hawke was the critic favorite out of the 4 that you mentioned.

    https://www.metacritic.com/feature/2018-film-awards-and-nominations-scorecard

    Olivia Colman, Richard E Grant, and Regina King were the others. All of them were nominated and two of them won.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    SN
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    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1203993136

    Only Ethan Hawke was the critic favorite out of the 4 that you mentioned.

    https://www.metacritic.com/feature/2018-film-awards-and-nominations-scorecard

    Olivia Colman, Richard E Grant, and Regina King were the others. All of them were nominated and two of them won.

    J-Lo was a critics favorite lasy year, and everyone thought she’d be nominated.

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    John Berchmans
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    Jan 22nd, 2018
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    #1203993148

    J-Lo was a critics favorite lasy year, and everyone thought she’d be nominated.

    Laura Dern had the most critic nominations and wins though. Last year the only critic favorite who missed was Lupita Nyong’o.

    John's Best of 2020

    Best Picture: Soul
    Best Director: George Clooney-The Midnight Sky
    Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Actress: Viola Davis-Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
    Best Supporting Actor: Delroy Lindo-Da Five Bloods
    Best Supporting Actress: Amanda Seyfried-Mank
    Best Original Screenplay: Soul
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Midnight Sky

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    Eddy Q
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    #1203993162

    Critic favorites are almost always nominated though. Usually only one misses a season, and I think this season that’s most likely going to be Raci, for having a very quiet type of performance that the Academy typically ignores.

    But they don’t though, at least not for the nomination. Mark Rylance was the most secure for a supporting actor nomination in 2015 and I remember people on GD speculating that he might be snubbed. Seriously. Besides, Raci has other factors going for him: while he isn’t himself deaf he has a familial connection with the deaf community that will play as a ‘progressive’ narrative; he’s also an acting veteran contending for his first nomination which the industry loves to recognise. I’d say he’s more assured for a nom than either Youn or Bakalova.

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    SN
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    #1203993165

    Laura Dern had the most critic nominations and wins though. Last year the only critic favorite who missed was Lupita Nyong’o.

    So by your standards Bakalova isn’t a critics favorite.

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    Liebchen
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    Jan 18th, 2021
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    #1203993186

    Laura Dern had the most critic nominations and wins though. Last year the only critic favorite who missed was Lupita Nyong’o.

    Jennifer Lopez, Adam Sandler, Eddie Murphy, Akwafina, Willem Dafoe and Zhao Shuzhen were all critic favorites. It doesn’t matter whether they won or not, they were objectively and heavily pushed by critics awards groups.

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    Marrowbone
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    Dec 12th, 2020
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    #1203993198

    Being a critic favorite doesn’t mean you are a lock for a nomination, especially in Youn and Bakalova’s situations. The first one is not a white chick with mediocre performance, and the second one is in a movie considered to be far away from ”Oscar-friendly”. We saw Nyong’o being snubbed because of this last year. They didn’t care how good her performance was. Do you really think, all of a sudden, they will change? I have a hard time believing this.

    ⭐Best Actress - Carey Mulligan, Rosamund Pike

    ⭐Best Supporting Actress - Youn Yuh-Jung

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