January 24, 2021 at 6:36 am #1203998620
This race is a mess and I expect we’ll be in a similar situation to the one we were in during the awards for 2018 films. Colman and Seyfried are essentially the one locks for Globe nominations and I consider them to be win competitive (same with Burstyn although I can see her miss the Globe nomination) for that win. However I get this feeling because of how messy this season we’ll get a crazy set of winners.
Although I am not predicting it I can see a situation where Colman wins the Globe and then get snubbed at SAG and Bakalova wins the Globe and gets in at SAG but misses at the Oscars (probably to someone from a BP nominee like Cooke or Fishback or a veteran like Foster or even Close) and wins at SAG à la Emily Blunt. Amanda Seyfried would be the Amy Adams of this season in the sense that she has a strong screen presence in her film but her performance is too small to win.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"January 24, 2021 at 6:50 am #1203998640
I think Bakalova will ultimately miss the Oscar nomination..January 24, 2021 at 6:54 am #1203998646
If she gets in at BAFTA it might be a good sign for her chances but as I said she strikes me as the J-Lo/Blunt type of critics darling we’re getting in this category ever year. Like them she is in a film that is probably in the top 15 but it lack awards strength and her performance is not a conventional one awards bodies lean towards.
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"January 24, 2021 at 7:05 am #1203998673
Yeah this category is the hardest to predict I think. It’s all over the place and there’s no standout I could say with any confidence I think will win. I think Close will do better than we expected when HE came out, partly because of the weird competition here, but I don’t think there’s enough there for the Oscars to ultimately reward her. Seyfried and Colman are probably leading, but I think the former suffers from the role being quite small and the latter having won very recently. I don’t really get any sense Burtsyn is ahead of the pack, but I think she’s good for a nom. I think Youn might actually be in the lead – if Minari gets enough passion to be mid-to-high ranking in BP, it’s reasonable to assume there’ll be broad love for it and with Youn being a beloved standout in a BP nom that may ultimately not pick up any other wins, I think there’s a narrative in there. Again, I can’t call it though.
I still have Seyfried leading, but there’s about 5 others who could. Fishback’s in the conversation, and Bakalova could be a winner hiding in plain sight because I’m dismissing her chances too quickly, but that still doesn’t feel like a performance that the Academy will broady vote for – the iconic Giuliani scene may bump her chances though. Basically:
But any of them could win and I’m not 100% any of them will get a nom. Exciting, but confusing.January 24, 2021 at 7:22 am #1203998696
Yes, this category and could go a number of ways…January 24, 2021 at 7:39 am #1203998738
1. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
2. Olivia Colman, The Father
3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank
4. Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
5. Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal
6. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
7. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
8. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah
9. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
10. Lily Collins, Mank
FYC OSCARS : PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN IN ALL CATEGORIES (ESP. ACTRESS – Carey Mulligan AND ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY — EMERALD FENNELL), VANESSA KIRBY FOR "PIECES OF A WOMAN", ESSIE DAVIS FOR "BABYTEETH"January 24, 2021 at 7:45 am #1203998743
Bakalova will not get nominated. It baffles me how we go through this every year yet people never learn.
Go through what exactly? There hasn’t been a performance like this in real contention before, unless you count Sacha Baron Cohen in the original Borat (and in certain ways, I wouldn’t). We have no real precedent to compare it to.January 24, 2021 at 7:58 am #1203998759
I just can’t see Seyfried winning for that nothing role. And I say that as someone who really liked Mank.January 24, 2021 at 8:20 am #1203998779
Go through the fact that critics hype up and push contenders even though they don’t really stand a chance at getting nominated because AMPAS likes it a certain way.
Bakalova might not happen, but increasingly there have been cracks in the veneer protecting traditional “Oscar movies” and the hallowed ground they occupy. And I wouldn’t necessarily compare Bakalova to someone like Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers or Nicole Kidman in The Paperboy if those are along the lines you’re thinking, although surface-level comparisons could be made here I’m sure. My experience with the Oscars is that certain things don’t happen until they do, so I’m reluctant to jump to conclusions based on spurious precedent.January 24, 2021 at 3:03 pm #1203999488
Okay so I know this is likely controversial and never happening in a million years, but I finally got around to watching Tenet and I really think Elizabeth Debicki would be such a deserving nominee, especially in a year when this category is pretty open.January 24, 2021 at 3:58 pm #1203999549
Okay so I know this is likely controversial and never happening in a million years, but I finally got around to watching Tenet and I really think Elizabeth Debicki would be such a deserving nominee, especially in a year when this category is pretty open.
You just reminded me that Debicki is coming HARD for that Emmy very soon.January 24, 2021 at 4:22 pm #1203999578
The Crown is taking a year off in between seasons so I’d argue that Debicki should be fine. It also helps that young Diana is very different from older Diana.January 24, 2021 at 10:31 pm #1204000006
F*** it, I’m putting in Bakalova.
I’m now seeing Borat as a Bridesmaids-type situation, the comedy of the year snagging nods for its screenplay and its breakout star supporting actress performance that combined popular and critical love.
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