April 19, 2021 at 4:26 am #1204208826
I am trying to decide whether to switch my prediction back to Mank for Best Cinematography instead of Nomadland – that guild win for Mank has me thinking I ought to do so. I had Mank in first since the day of the nominations but a few days I got persuaded to make the switch, mainly because Nomadland winning only 3 Oscars without it and 4 with it makes me more sense! Personally I liked Mank’s cinematography better but predicting is more about trying to figure out what the voters will do!
Cinematography and Directing have been very closely linked since Life of Pi, with the only exceptions being Roger Deakins’ wins (and he swept both times). The guild diverges from AMPAS often enough that I don’t feel an urgency to switch from Nomadland.April 19, 2021 at 4:50 am #1204208834
Thanks for the advice Eddy Q and Marcus H. I think I’m going to go with Ma Rainey in Costumes even if it doesn’t make sense to me but just based on the amazing winning streak it’s had.
I might go out on a limb for Pinocchio though, mainly because I have Davis winning and if I go for Ma Rainey in Makeup then it will be winning 4 out of 5 awards which…yeah, I just don’t buy it.
Editing is still baffling me but I’m sticking with Sound of Metal just because I can’t imagine Trial winning ONLY editing, that’s such a rare thing.
I do wonder if I’m being too casual with Tenet in Visual Effects though. It makes logical sense but it’s a bit of a boring winner to me when Love + Monsters is right there. But I’ve been burned by going with my favourite in this category before, boring tends to go the distance here.April 19, 2021 at 5:47 am #1204208932
I’ve been thinking about Trial only winning editing too. But this year we only have one sound category, maybe Trial would have taken sound editing, like FvF ? (I think Greyhound would have been the other strong contender there).April 19, 2021 at 5:59 am #1204208959
I finally saw all the make up/hair and costume nominees and I think I’d personally give makeup to Pinocchio and costume to EmmaApril 19, 2021 at 6:45 am #1204209018
“BURROW” is winning Animated Short, the same way BAO won a few years ago. It’s Pixar, has been playing before high profile SOUL for months, meaning it is the most seen among the nominees. It is very accessible, adorable and relatable.April 19, 2021 at 7:22 am #1204209052
So is believing Trial can’t just win Editing.
Because Film Editing is not that type of category. It is not a throw away random category. It’s like Directing and Screenplay. Pundits look to it to see if your Best Picture hopes went flying out the window come Oscar nomination morning.
Now suddenly it is being relegated to just being a tick off vote? Editing wins are normally tied to Sound and/or a whole bunch of techs wins.
Either Chicago 7 goes home empty handed (UNLIKELY) or it wins more than just Film Editing. Which is looking more and more likely.
Just find the category it is likely to win WITH Film Editing. Then it will all make sense.April 19, 2021 at 7:39 am #1204209092
Because Film Editing is not that type of category. It is not a throw away random category. It’s like Directing and Screenplay. Pundits look to it to see if your Best Picture hopes went flying out the window come Oscar nomination morning. Now suddenly it is being relegated to just being a tick off vote? Editing wins are normally tied to Sound and/or a whole bunch of techs wins. Either Chicago 7 goes home empty handed (UNLIKELY) or it wins more than just Film Editing. Which is looking more and more likely. Just find the category it is likely to win WITH Film Editing. Then it will all make sense.
In addition to its ensemble (which there isn’t a category for), the editing is the component of the film that has the most passion behind it. It’s not ticking off a box or a “throw away.” People love the editing in that film, and I don’t see why you have to also love the screenplay, a song, etc. for that opinion to make sense. The narrative for Chicago 7 winning editing makes sense, and stats should factor a lot less when most of the Best Picture nominees are slower paced indie films. 2020 was a weird year. Stats will be broken. We’ve known that since NYFCC.
If we care so much about patterns, why not consider the pattern that the Academy likes to award films with “flashy” editing? That means it would be The Father or Trial, and I find another win for either film unlikely (obviously, not impossible).April 19, 2021 at 7:45 am #1204209105
Regarding Inception sweeping the precursors in production design then losing to Alice in Wonderland, it helped that the Disney feature created an entire fantasy world which was even written in its title. World-building is often an asset in that category, and voters may not have appreciated the complex architecture of Inception. Besides, this was when BAFTA winners in most categories were still selected by the individual branches, so we don’t know what would’ve won under the current system.
Alice in Wonderland also came fresh of the Avatar win. Both had the same production designer.April 19, 2021 at 7:52 am #1204209123
If we care so much about patterns, why not consider the pattern that the Academy likes to award films with “flashy” editing?
Because that pattern isn’t that strong to being with. This whole idea that the most showy editing always win is overstated. BAFTA just proved that.April 19, 2021 at 8:07 am #1204209160
Chicago is hurt by the film not being seen in theaters. I noticed in the past 5 years Best Editing winners were widely seen in theaters and did decently well in the box office. Makes sense because flashy editing is pointed right in your face on the IMAX screen. Honestly voters who just watch the 10 minutes of Sound of Metal will probably just vote for it in editing for that drum sequence thinking it’s the rest of the film like Whiplash.
Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.April 19, 2021 at 8:28 am #1204209215
People are relying too heavily on the BAFTA and Sound stat. What else does Sound of Metal have for Editing beyond that?
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