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Oscars 2021 Predictions: Crafts Categories (Part 2)

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    Magnus
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    #1204159847

    The Father could take BAFTA but I have a flashback of when Dunkirk and Baby Driver tied at the CC and the later won BAFTA despite the lack of Film/Director noms that the former had.

    Don’t BAFTAs have a track record of rewarding car films though?

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    wolfali
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    #1204159876

    Don’t BAFTAs have a track record of rewarding car films though?

    Yep. They even rewarded the Senna documentary the Editing reward.

    FYC Emmys: "The Crown" in all categories, "I May Destroy You" in all categories, "It's a Sin" in all categories, "Small Axe" in all categories, Billie Piper ("I Hate Suzie"), Yvonne Strahovski ("Stateless") and Ruth Wilson ("His Dark Materials")

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    Damiansport1
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    #1204160281

    It’s going to be Sound of Metal because of the sound nom. It’s not showy editing in per se, but the sound effects make it feel showy if that makes sense. Father is the spoiler though.

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    SN
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    #1204160297

    The Father is not going to win the Editing Oscar without an ACE nom, even if it wins BAFTA. I don’t even know if such thing happened before.

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    Riley Chow
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    #1204162019

    Not the first to say this, but one of the first: What a disappointment the editing in The Father was.  So we have both Sound of Metal and The Father as pretenders this season and actually getting away with it.  The editing of neither is bad; they just do not live up to the hype.  As discussed, Sound of Metal is no Whiplash.  The Father is inventively structured, but the “film editing” per se itself is not inventive technically.  To compare a similarly disorienting narrative, the editor of I’m Thinking of Ending Things accentuated the construction of his film with his individual contributions much more than The Father‘s did.

    The editing of Sound of Metal and The Father does not detract from their films, but they are not pushing the boundaries.  The Oscar-winning editor of News of the World and the three-time Emmy-nominated editor editor of The White Tiger are just as competent, but they were working on films that were as well-written or -directed.  Given that The Father is not an editor-driven film, it speaks well to its chances overall that it beat out Minari in editing, along the lines that the editors nominated Green Book and BlacKkKlansman over A Star is Born.

    The Father is not going to win BAFTA because they could not care less how much they like a film when voting on Best Editing; it is only about what (arguably) had the most cuts.  The Trial of the Chicago 7 had the most cuts, but it is a lower-key winner than we usually get, so I could see Promising Young Woman taking it because the directing is so stylish that it feels like it has more cuts than it does.

    The Father can win the Oscar on the other hand.  The academy’s general membership does not care about technical scale of work.  We see this in the visual effects category, where Ex Machina and 1917 beat larger effects because of how integral their smaller effects were to their innovative stories.  We do not know if Birdman or 1917 would have won the editing Oscar because the editors’ branch did not give the academy the chance.  Both won Critics Choice though. The ACE snub of The Father is whatever because it does not seem like the guilds saw it.

    The template for The Father is Dunkirk.  Baby Driver had more cuts, so BAFTA awarded it, but the idea of editing was more integral to the unusual nonlinear plot of Dunkirk and that carried it to the Oscar.

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    GermanGuidanceSystem
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    #1204162570

    Not the first to say this, but one of the first: What a disappointment the editing in The Father was. So we have both Sound of Metal and The Father as pretenders this season and actually getting away with it. The editing of neither is bad; they just do not live up to the hype. As discussed, Sound of Metal is no Whiplash. The Father is inventively structured, but the “film editing” per se itself is not inventive technically. To compare a similarly disorienting narrative, the editor of I’m Thinking of Ending Things accentuated the construction of his film with his individual contributions much more than The Father‘s did.

    The editing of Sound of Metal and The Father does not detract from their films, but they are not pushing the boundaries. The Oscar-winning editor of News of the World and the three-time Emmy-nominated editor editor of The White Tiger are just as competent, but they were working on films that were as well-written or -directed. Given that The Father is not an editor-driven film, it speaks well to its chances overall that it beat out Minari in editing, along the lines that the editors nominated Green Book and BlacKkKlansman over A Star is Born.

    The Father is not going to win BAFTA because they could not care less how much they like a film when voting on Best Editing; it is only about what (arguably) had the most cuts. The Trial of the Chicago 7 had the most cuts, but it is a lower-key winner than we usually get, so I could see Promising Young Woman taking it because the directing is so stylish that it feels like it has more cuts than it does.

    The Father can win the Oscar on the other hand. The academy’s general membership does not care about technical scale of work. We see this in the visual effects category, where Ex Machina and 1917 beat larger effects because of how integral their smaller effects were to their innovative stories. We do not know if Birdman or 1917 would have won the editing Oscar because the editors’ branch did not give the academy the chance. Both won Critics Choice though. The ACE snub of The Father is whatever because it does not seem like the guilds saw it.

    The template for The Father is Dunkirk. Baby Driver had more cuts, so BAFTA awarded it, but the idea of editing was more integral to the unusual nonlinear plot of Dunkirk and that carried it to the Oscar.

    I had to read that a few times to follow it – which I’m sure is much more of a comment about me than you! (Genuine questions to follow!)

    I’m understanding that both Sound of Metal and The Father don’t deserve to win the Oscar for their editing but that given what you know of Oscar voters’ behaviour you still predict them as the one and two most likely to do so?

    But I know I’m not following this bit:

    “Given that The Father is not an editor-driven film, it speaks well to its chances overall that it beat out Minari in editing, along the lines that the editors nominated Green Book and BlacKkKlansman over A Star is Born.

    Are you saying that The Father was lucky to be nominated by the Editing branch and thus that means it must have a good chance of the Academy’s general membership handing it that category win? I know that’s not what you’re saying, but I keep on reading / misreading it that way.

    Also have you any theory on why BAFTA, as you say, favour their editing winner to be the film with the most editing / the most cuts? After Bo Rap’s win the other year I assumed that the Academy also gave the editing Oscar to the most edited nominee. And if PYW is a contender for Bafta editing then why isn’t it the same for Oscar?

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    Riley Chow
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    #1204162792

    Sorry.  I mean that the Best Film Editing nominees tend to be a mix of films with a ton of cuts like Baby Driver and strong overall Oscar contenders like Green Book.  The Father has had the narrative that it is the former, but having seen it now, I consider it the latter.  The editors are really good at nominating the films that are strongest with the academy overall, so if The Father was nominated just because it is an overall strong Oscar contender, it does not bode well that Minari missed to it.  Minari missing to something like Baby Driver would be more excusable.  The Father might or might not win Editing, but that it got a nomination there speaks well to its chances broadly, like in Adapted Screenplay or Supporting Actress.  Films nominated for Editing usually win an Oscar in some category.

    This is a weird year for the category.  I have Sound of Metal winning the Oscar, but BAFTA is savvier and will probably go with something like Promising Young Woman that has a less measured pace.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1204162813

    The Father is not going to win the Editing Oscar without an ACE nom, even if it wins BAFTA. I don’t even know if such thing happened before.

    Not since Z in 1969.

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    Gabe Guarin
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    #1204162815

    I’m beginning to lean towards Sound of Metal for Film Editing, but it’s between that and Chicago 7. The Father doesn’t stand a chance without an ACE Eddie nom.

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    Riley Chow
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    #1204162832

    Like Birdman being the first Best Picture winner in decades without an Editing nomination, there is a good excuse for it.

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    Barbra please
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    #1204163043

    I would love seeing The Father upsets Mank in production design. The set was incredibly subtle and realistic. But no chance in hell this will win because the Oscar always awarded the grandest and most distracting crafts with the likes of Hugo, The Great Gatsby, Lalaland, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, and this year’s Mank.

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    GermanGuidanceSystem
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    #1204163344

    Sorry. I mean that the Best Film Editing nominees tend to be a mix of films with a ton of cuts like Baby Driver and strong overall Oscar contenders like Green Book. The Father has had the narrative that it is the former, but having seen it now, I consider it the latter. The editors are really good at nominating the films that are strongest with the academy overall, so if The Father was nominated just because it is an overall strong Oscar contender, it does not bode well that Minari missed to it. Minari missing to something like Baby Driver would be more excusable. The Father might or might not win Editing, but that it got a nomination there speaks well to its chances broadly, like in Adapted Screenplay or Supporting Actress. Films nominated for Editing usually win an Oscar in some category.

    This is a weird year for the category. I have Sound of Metal winning the Oscar, but BAFTA is savvier and will probably go with something like Promising Young Woman that has a less measured pace.

    Thank you for that. I get it now. :}

    I suppose the approach of AMPAS’s editing branch can be contrasted with the type of picks the directing branch make? I’m thinking back to Argo winning picture and editing but its director not making the cut for director honours. Then this year there’s Vinterberg but there’s no Sorkin.

    I am thinking that PYW might be a bit underrated for Oscar editing. Inspired by posts on this thread I had a look at the ACE Eddies noms, to be flabbergasted that they have PYW classed as a comedy!

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    Luca
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    #1204163348

    The editing in The Father is very good, but I, too, don’t get the hype for it. I was waiting to be blown away by it, but I never was. “Nomadland” remains the best in the category for me.

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    gorman
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    #1204163354

    I would love seeing The Father upsets Mank in production design. The set was incredibly subtle and realistic. But no chance in hell this will win because the Oscar always awarded the grandest and most distracting crafts with the likes of Hugo, The Great Gatsby, Lalaland, Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, and this year’s Mank.

    To be fair, I agree with you regarding The Father’s brilliant production design, but I would still give it to Mank despite that. The sets in Mank are incredible. They’re the opposite of distracting in my book too, because they just so seamlessly place us into the place and period of the film.

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    crabbie
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    #1204163367

    The editing in The Father didn’t impress me that much as much as the choices with the screenplay did. The editing is not that flashy but it doesn’t need to be although I was expecting more stylistic choices from the editing.

    Michelle Williams Oscar campaign manager.

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