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Oscars 2022 – Best Animated Feature predictions

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    @winteryajuu
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    #1204361909

    I have watched Belle, Luca, and The Mitchells vs. the Machines but I am still waiting for Encanto. Each of them can be nominated for the award but out of the three, Belle was breathtaking. I think it’s worthy of winning.Movie poster of the film Belle (2021)

    I have not watched “Belle” yet. But it is interesting because Jin Kim, who created the character design of Belle, is best known for his Disney classics such as Moana, Frozen, and Tangled. Also from Cartoon Saloon, Tomm Moore, and Ross Stewart made breathtaking artworks that enhance Belle’s fantasy concept.

    I am excited to see this film alongside Encanto and Luca. I am certainly sure that Mamoru Hosoda can get the shot of winning the Best Animated Feature at the 94th Academy Awards.

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    Vincent Figueroa
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    #1204363914

    1. Where Is Anne Frank? -Ari Folman ( Vals Im Bashir)

    2.Belle  – Mamoru Hosoda (Wolf Kids)

    3. Encanto- Byron Howard/Jared Bush (Zootopia)

    4.  Inu Oh – Masaaki Yuasa (Mind Game)

    5.¿Pinocho? (Stop Motion)-  Guillermo del Toro (Tales of Arcadia)….¿2022?

    I definitely think Luca will not even be nominated.

     

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    ReddWhite
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    #1204363973

    Oh, Luca is definitely getting in. They NEVER snub Pixar, unless it’s their worst movie, aka Cars 2, especially for a movie that has had a huge positive audience reception, maybe even better than Soul.

    Impossachievable

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    ReddWhite
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    #1204363981

    End of July predictions:

    1. Luca

    2. Belle

    3. Raya and the Last Dragon

    4. Encanto

    5. Flee

    6. The Mitchells vs. the Machines

    7. Vivo

    8. Where is Anne Frank

    9. Pinocchio

    10. Wish Dragon

    Damn, Netflix is really going for Disney’s throat, huh?

    Also, what a lovely competitive year here, much better than last one (no wonder Soul swept, it had no real competition)

    Impossachievable

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    winslets
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    #1204364470

    (no wonder Soul swept, it had no real competition)

    Which is a shame because Wolfwalkers was as good as Soul and would have been a very worthy winner, but unfortunately voters always only look at Pixar/Disney movies.

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    ReddWhite
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    #1204364945

    Which is a shame because Wolfwalkers was as good as Soul and would have been a very worthy winner, but unfortunately voters always only look at Pixar/Disney movies.

    Eh, other than the villain’s death, which is one of my favorites, I thought it was a rather predictable movie with an amazing animation and score. But then again, that is also my opinion of Soul, Onward and Over the Moon (haven’t seen Shaun the Sheep 2), so I guess they were all equal in my eyes.

    Impossachievable

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    flipper11
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    #1204366303

    A very bold swing and it won’t be nominated in a month of Sundays, but would put a penny on Evangelion 3.0+1.01: Thrice Upon a Time over Wish Dragon, if only because the latter will likely be buried in Netflix’s promotional push and Amazon could make a big song and dance about their big acquisition. The typical one-anime-only limit means it won’t have a hope against Belle, even before its denseness, fourth chapter status and runtime enter the equation, but could see it popping up at the odd left-of-field critics’ ceremony.

     

    (Is it sacrilegious to say Mirai did very little for me? Found its acclaim and nomination a little bizarre – have always wondered if it was a potential hangover from Your Name missing the cut and then blowing up, a sort of “hey, we can do non-Ghibli anime too!” corrective from the Academy. Mirai ain’t bad but struggled to love it the way Wolf Children managed to sway me.)

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    Primo Ford
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    #1204367664

    Predictions (as of July 29th):
    Belle

    – Encanto

    – Luca

    Flee

    – Raya and the Last Dragon

    Remarks:
    A tough year and a nice competition. I haven’t watched Encanto yet however between the four movies, Belle and Flee are fighting for the top spot.

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    CuriousHedgehog
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    #1204368324

    So far I have:

    Animated
    Encanto
    Flee
    The Mitchell’s vs the Machines
    Luca
    Belle

    I recently took out Where is Anne Frank following its muted reactions from Cannes (good, but not what we were hoping). I don’t believe that Raya will be nominated, and I think that there’s a chance Mitchell’s could be snubbed.

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    antony
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    #1204369208

    Vivo trailer

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    UberTag
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    #1204372963

    So far I have:

    Animated
    Encanto
    Flee
    The Mitchell’s vs the Machines
    Luca
    Belle

    I recently took out Where is Anne Frank following its muted reactions from Cannes (good, but not what we were hoping). I don’t believe that Raya will be nominated, and I think that there’s a chance Mitchell’s could be snubbed.

    I’ve been chirping these same five films for roughly the past 3-4 months (at least since Mitchells delivered critically).

    Have always felt that the category was unlikely to support three Disney/Pixar flicks and Luca gets the nod over Raya due to the Pixar cred. Flee has been locked in since Sundance and Belle always seemed like the most promising GKIDS title and that was reaffirmed by its subsequent Cannes premiere and response.

    I’m also with you on Mitchells being the likely casualty should something come out of left field and make a splash but I’m not seeing what that could be as of right now.

    Encanto is cemented as the de facto front-runner given the pedigree and Oscar season release push… and as much as I’d like to see this category be competitive and for outside films to rate consideration, I don’t see any reason to believe Oscar will break from this trend any time soon.

    Looking forward to the stop-motion fare on track for next year.

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    ReddWhite
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    #1204379906

    One thing that I find possible is that the Disney movies actually split votes this year.

    We know that the only time they lost recently was against Spiderverse, and, while that was a huge cultural phenomenon, it also helped that Disney not only had 2 nominees that year (Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet), but both movies had lukewarm reception compared to their predecessors; in other words, there was no fruntrunner, allowing for a Disney vote-split.

    We also know that, like, half the Academy have their children vote on the movies for them, and obviously the kids are gonna choose Disney, or they just vote for Disney because. I actually have a theory that this is why Klaus lost; had Frozen II been nominated, we’d actually have a similar 2018 situation: heavy public and critics favorite (Klaus) vs. 2 Disney sequels that had underwhelming public and/or critical reactions (Frozen II and Toy Story 4). I’m quite sure that the Disney votes would split. But when Frozen II got snubbed, it sealed the deal, at least for me: all of the Disney votes, so the majority of voters, as the past few years have shown, went to one movie.

    Anyway, back to my point, if Encanto is as much as a public favorite as Luca is (seriously, I’ve never seen so much stanning for a Pixar movie since, idk, Up), and since Raya‘s nomination would be their reward (its public reception was much more muted), they could theoretically split votes and allow for another public favorite to win, like Mitchells vs. the Machines or a dark horse, like Belle or Flee.

    But Luca is probably winning, so yeah.

    Impossachievable

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    BD
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    #1204380093

    My August Predictions
    *I added MetaCritic scores (MetaScore) for your reference

    Frontrunners
    “Belle” (GKids) 89
    “Flee” (Neon) 91
    “Luca” (Disney/Pixar) 71
    “The Mitchells vs. The Machines” (Netflix/Sony) 80

    Contenders
    “Cryptozoo” (Magnolia Pictures) 79
    “Raya and the Last Dragon” (Disney) 75
    “Vivo” (Netflix/Sony) 64
    “Where Is Anne Frank” (No Distributor?) 50

    Longshots
    “The Boss Baby: Family Business” (Universal/DreamWorks) 40
    “Spirit Untamed” (Universal/DreamWorks) 49
    “Wish Dragon” (Netflix) 59

    For Waiting (Will be updated if reactions, reviews, or if watched)
    “Back to the Outback” (Netflix) – December
    “Encanto” (Disney) – December
    “Hotel Transylvania: Transformania” (Sony) – October
    “Inu-Oh” (G-Kids) – November/December
    “Paw Patrol: The Movie” (Paramount) – August
    “Ron’s Gone Wrong” (Disney/Fox/Locksmith) – October
    “Sing 2” (Universal/Illumination) – December
    “The Addams Family 2” (MGM/UAR) – October
    “The Deer King” (GKids) – December

    References:
    https://www.metacritic.com/

    Oscars 2022: Best Animated Feature Predictions

    BD Critique

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    BD
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    #1204380138

    One thing that I find possible is that the Disney movies actually split votes this year.

    We know that the only time they lost recently was against Spiderverse, and, while that was a huge cultural phenomenon, it also helped that Disney not only had 2 nominees that year (Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet), but both movies had lukewarm reception compared to their predecessors; in other words, there was no fruntrunner, allowing for a Disney vote-split.

    We also know that, like, half the Academy have their children vote on the movies for them, and obviously the kids are gonna choose Disney, or they just vote for Disney because. I actually have a theory that this is why Klaus lost; had Frozen II been nominated, we’d actually have a similar 2018 situation: heavy public and critics favorite (Klaus) vs. 2 Disney sequels that had underwhelming public and/or critical reactions (Frozen II and Toy Story 4). I’m quite sure that the Disney votes would split. But when Frozen II got snubbed, it sealed the deal, at least for me: all of the Disney votes, so the majority of voters, as the past few years have shown, went to one movie.

    Anyway, back to my point, if Encanto is as much as a public favorite as Luca is (seriously, I’ve never seen so much stanning for a Pixar movie since, idk, Up), and since Raya‘s nomination would be their reward (its public reception was much more muted), they could theoretically split votes and allow for another public favorite to win, like Mitchells vs. the Machines or a dark horse, like Belle or Flee.

    But Luca is probably winning, so yeah.

    I agree with you, and that’s why Frozen II wasn’t nominated and as Klaus for not winning the award during the 2018 period. During also that time, Toy Story 4 had a majority of mixed reception but still won. I also agree with the influence of “voters’ children,” which is the reason why 11 Pixar/3 Disney movies have won the BAF since 2001. Although some are exceptionally breathtaking. While this may be true, during the 2002 period, I think Spider-Verse wasn’t the first movie that defeated the Disney/Pixar movies. The academy saw the beauty of Spirited Away and took home the award for BAF 2002, defeating Lilo and Stitch and Treasure Planet (both have mixed receptions and are produced by Disney.)

    I have watched Flee (Several Studios), and I think, at any rate, it might bag a nomination for Best Documentary Categories (Feature or Short?) and Best Animated Feature (and with this, I agree with the Dark Horse you mentioned.) However, if the world premiere of Belle (Studio Chizu) this December, could be a level of Your Name (CoMix Wave Films), A Silent Voice (Kyoto Animation), or Spirited Away (Studio Ghibli) [audience impact and critics reception], a nomination is secured and has a shot of taking home the award being the second animation from Japan winning the BAF since 2002. If the producers of Belle (2021) will be smart in submitting their movie as a Japan submission for Best International Film, it might not win but has a shot of securing the nomination. (If and only if the premiere of Belle will be a hit in December.) Princess Mononoke (Studio Ghibli) and Weathering with you (CoMix Wave Films) were submitted but didn’t win nor it wasn’t shortlisted for Best Foreign Language Film (This was the old term for Best International Feature since 2018-19 was implemented?.)

    I am also hoping for Luca, with that ending I can feel a Call Me By Your Name momentum (imo), and it is still an ending worth remembering for this 2021 period. Although I am worried that Luca will be streaming first in Disney+ (as said by one source: https://www.indiewire.com/2021/04/pixar-staff-slams-disney-moving-films-streaming-1234633910/.) Indeed Pixar recently won Best Animated Feature by Soul since the Academy allowed films with a scheduled theatrical release to compete for streaming (Due to the Pandemic.) At this moment, it is uncertain if the Academy will maintain the 2022 Oscar rule. If they don’t, and the release Luca continues as scheduled (Disney+ first, then theatrical release) It might have a chance to not qualify for the BAF. (Fingers crossed I hope Luca will be nominated.)

    If Encanto will be a hit (which everyone is anticipating as the only and last animated film and huge contender for 2021) then all of what I said was useless. Disney has an upper hand (plus the split vote you mentioned) unless the “Dark Horse” will win. (Tbh, this year is a tight competition for BAF, but I am hoping for the best that Flee or Belle will take home the award) let’s see what will happen.

    Note* everything is imo.

    BD Critique

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    ReddWhite
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    #1204380806

    I agree with everything you said, but I specifically mentioned Spiderverse because 2018 and 2011 (this one due to the lack of contenders, since Cars 2 was a HUGE critical flop [still the only Pixar to have a Rotten score in RT] and Winnie the Pooh a financial flop) were the only years Disney lost this decade. Back then they lost much more commonly; Shrek (huge cultural moment, even to this day) won over not-nominated AtlantisSpirited Away won over Lilo & Stitch and Treasure Planet (both of which are WAY more appreciated by the masses and critics nowadays), Finding Nemo (before Pixar was Disney’s) won over Brother Bear (which to this day is pretty polarizing) and they didn’t even have nominees in 2004 and 2005, Happy Feet won over Cars (this one is a bit confusing since HF is not really that well-liked, but I guess the Academy was full “save the environment” that year, seeing as An Incovenient Truth also won 2 Oscars).

    Only after they bought Pixar and had the winning fourfecta of Ratatouille, WALL-E, Up and Toy Story 3 did they begin to dominate as much as they do.

    Impossachievable

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