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Oscars 2022: Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay (Part 2)

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  • babypook
    Joined:
    Nov 4th, 2010
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    #1204875910

    Licorice Pizza is the only deserving nominee.

    But I’m going with Belfast.

    Love the guts. If they’re going to reward Sir Kenneth somewhere it’s here.
    Doesn’t matter if it’s the “best or worst”

    I haven’t put him first though. Maybe I will…

    The Sunne in Splendour.
    I prefer my roses white

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204875912

    It is unprecedented for a film like Belfast to win screenplay without 0 guild and BAFTA wins. It’s true that stats can break, but this year showed the strength of the guilds based on CODA overperforming at every guild and Dune’s tech sweep being assured thanks to ADG, VES, ASC, and MPSE.

    It does have a Globe win, but that’s not an industry precursor. Green Book, Birdman, 12 Years A Slave were able to win via Best Picture paths and all of these films won PGA. Precious had a surprise upset against Up in the Air, but it still had a guild win from SAG and Monique still took the BAFTA. The Pianist won screenplay at the Oscars from momentum coming from a BAFTA Best Film win. Belfast doesn’t have momentum at all.

     

     

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Director: Todd Field
    Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Actor: Colin Farrell
    Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett
    Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
    Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss

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    Lucas
    Joined:
    Jun 24th, 2020
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    #1204875926

    After finally watching it, I just can’t imagine a Belfast win. It’s incredibly simple and reductive. And no, we’ve been through this, it’s not Green Book. At least Don’t Look Up was entertaining…

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    babypook
    Joined:
    Nov 4th, 2010
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    #1204875932

    After finally watching it, I just can’t imagine a Belfast win. It’s incredibly simple and reductive. And no, we’ve been through this, it’s not Green Book. At least Don’t Look Up was entertaining…

    Lol! Yes, but it’s Branagh. In this f_cked up year, it wouldn’t be that surprising.

    The Sunne in Splendour.
    I prefer my roses white

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    estrelas
    Joined:
    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1204875938

    Licorice Pizza is the only deserving nominee.

    Is it?

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    estrelas
    Joined:
    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1204875948

    I’m probably repeating myself but I cannot predict Belfast. This movie is an absolute tank in the UK and Ireland. It became the first nom leader to go home empty handed at the BIFAs, If it wasn’t for British Film category it would’ve won 0 BAFTAs, not to mention, the LFCC and Irish Film Awards tank. It also has 0 guild wins. This movie just doesn’t have any passion. And the Green Book/Birdman comparisons don’t hold, when both won PGA and went on to win BP. I could end up eating crow but yeah. I don’t have in confidence in it at all.

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    crabbie
    Joined:
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    #1204875955

    IMDB ratings of Best Original Screenplay winners of the past decade:

    Promising Young Woman: 7.5
    Parasite: 8.5
    Green Book: 8.2
    Get Out: 8.2
    Manchester by the Sea: 7.8
    Spotlight: 8.1
    Birdman: 7.7
    Her: 8.0
    Django Unchained: 8.5
    Midnight in Paris: 7.7

    This years Best Original Screenplay contenders IMDB scores:
    Belfast: 7.3
    Don’t Look Up: 7.2
    King Richard: 7.5
    Licorice Pizza: 7.4
    The Worst Person in the World: 7.9

    Like I said: No one is overly passionate about this years Original Screenplay contenders. And I can’t blame them. This years lineup is atrocious. The Worst Person in the World’s IMDB score is astonishingly stronger than the other contenders by a large margin. Its the film embraced most by the general public.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Director: Todd Field
    Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Actor: Colin Farrell
    Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett
    Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
    Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss

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    JV
    Joined:
    Dec 31st, 2019
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    #1204876118

    After finally watching it, I just can’t imagine a Belfast win. It’s incredibly simple and reductive. And no, we’ve been through this, it’s not Green Book. At least Don’t Look Up was entertaining…

    People often forget that Green Book was a dialogue driven movie. It made sense (even if it sucks) for it to win Screenplay. Belfast just doesn’t make sense as a winner, but it could win because that’s a messy season.

    Usually Original Screenplay goes to the “cool” pick while Adapted goes to the populist one (the opposite happened in the 2018-2019 season)

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    crabbie
    Joined:
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    #1204876146

    The Worst Person in the World has the highest rating on IMDB partly because it’s the least seen.

    And? Crossing the 30k logged entry threshold is enough for a film to cement its IMDB score. It’s also a foreign language film not out on any streaming service unlike King Richard and Don’t Look Up, so it getting 30k logged entries is very good. It literally has more logged entries than The Tragedy of Macbeth, Being the Ricardos, Drive My Car, and Parallel Mothers.

    Increasing the sample size of 30k to 90k would still see consistent high scores between 7.7.-8.0, which is higher than its competitors. The Worst Person in the World has 142k logged entries in Letterboxd and still has a 4.2 star rating.

     

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 1 week ago by emmastoner.
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    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Director: Todd Field
    Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Actor: Colin Farrell
    Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett
    Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
    Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss

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    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204876151

    Is it?

    Yes, it is. Belfast, DLU and KR are too weak and Worst Person was disappoiting to say the least.

    Thinking better, I’ll predict LP. The WGA voting happened way too soon to affect the race that much.

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204876153

    Licorice Pizza is the most logical winner, but it’s lack of appearance in anonymous ballots is concerning. I know ballots aren’t everything, however it’s low audience reception and controversies are catching up to the film I believe. The lost at WGA is REALLY bad. WGA chose the most critically panned film against the most critically acclaimed film. The affinity to Don’t Look Up, a more typical crowdpleaser, might be similar to the industrys aversion to TPOTD in favor of CODA.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Director: Todd Field
    Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Actor: Colin Farrell
    Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett
    Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
    Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss

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    SN
    Joined:
    Dec 7th, 2014
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    #1204876155

    The Worst Person in the World would be the first film in 17 years to win Screenplay without a Best Picture nom and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind would definitely be a BP nominee these days. I think it’s delusional to predict it.

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    estrelas
    Joined:
    Jul 25th, 2018
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    #1204876174

    Yes, it is. Belfast, DLU and KR are too weak and Worst Person was disappoiting to say the least.

    Thinking better, I’ll predict LP. The WGA voting happened way too soon to affect the race that much.

    Licorica Pizza isn’t much better. Low tier PTA.

    The Worst Person in the World would be the first film in 17 years to win Screenplay without a Best Picture nom and Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind would definitely be a BP nominee these days. I think it’s delusional to predict it.

    If CODA can win BP breaking a gazilion stats, I don’t see why The Worst Person in the World can’t do the same in Screenplay. Also, it more than likely would’ve been nominated for BP had Neon done a far better job campaign/release wise. It’s also a box office hit considering the type of movie and release it got. Maybe it won’t win, but a possible win ain’t delusional. Especially when the race is literally all over the place.

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    crabbie
    Joined:
    Feb 26th, 2021
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    #1204876296

    Last film to win Best Original Screenplay with an IMDB score less than 7.5: 2001 – Gosford Park with a 7.2 (All films except The Worst Person in the World and King Richard have a score less than 7.5)

    Last film to win Best Original Screenplay without a Best Picture nomination: 2004 – Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.

    A 2 decade stat is going to break anyways for whatever Original Screenplay contender you predict. CODA is breaking so many stats due to it having the strongest IMDB score out of the Best Picture nominees. So I don’t see how predicting The Worst Person in the World is far-fetched.

    All Original Screenplay contenders are weak. Belfast shouldn’t have lost at BAFTA. Licorice Pizza shouldn’t have lost at WGA. Don’t Look Up is a Rotten film that lacks both acting and directing nominations at the Oscars.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

    FYC:
    Best Picture: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Director: Todd Field
    Best Original Screenplay: Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, TÁR
    Best Actor: Colin Farrell
    Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh, Cate Blanchett
    Best Supporting Actor: Brendan Gleeson, Ke Huy Quan
    Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon, Nina Hoss

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    cinetastic
    Joined:
    Feb 24th, 2019
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    #1204876305

    I can’t make a final decision because CODA or TPOTD will probably win Best Adapted Screenplay, unless Drive My Car doesn’t pull a surprise.

    When it comes to Original Screenplay, I think I’m gonna predict The Worst Person in the World, even though I think Belfast might win. I’m just afraid that Don’t Look Up might pull an upset.

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