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Oscars 2022: Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay (Part 2)

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    SN
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    #1204876347

    If CODA can win BP breaking a gazilion stats, I don’t see why The Worst Person in the World can’t do the same in Screenplay. Also, it more than likely would’ve been nominated for BP had Neon done a far better job campaign/release wise. It’s also a box office hit considering the type of movie and release it got. Maybe it won’t win, but a possible win ain’t delusional. Especially when the race is literally all over the place.

    CODA won PGA, SAG and WGA. There’s a very good reason to be predicting it to break all these stats. What has TWPITW won so far? Nothing.

    Last film to win Best Original Screenplay with an IMDB score less than 7.5: 2001 – Gosford Park with a 7.2 (All films except The Worst Person in the World and King Richard have a score less than 7.5)

    Last film to win Best Original Screenplay without a Best Picture nomination: 2004 – Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.

    A 2 decade stat is going to break anyways for whatever Original Screenplay contender you predict. CODA is breaking so many stats due to it having the strongest IMDB score out of the Best Picture nominees. So I don’t see how predicting The Worst Person in the World is far-fetched.

    All Original Screenplay contenders are weak. Belfast shouldn’t have lost at BAFTA. Licorice Pizza shouldn’t have lost at WGA. Don’t Look Up is a Rotten film that lacks both acting and directing nominations at the Oscars.

    Do you really think a random IMDb score stat is just as important as a Best Picture stat?

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    estrelas
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    #1204876364

    CODA won PGA, SAG and WGA. There’s a very good reason to be predicting it to break all these stats. What has TWPITW won so far? Nothing.

    Again, this category is an absolute mess. Any winner we get is going to be breaking some sort of stat. TWPITW may have not won anything, but lets not forget it had an absolute shitty campaign and a late release in both the USA and UK. So I don’t see how it would be winning anything until now. Also, it’s the most acclaimed movie if you combine both audience and critics scores. It’s also a Box office hit. And I know CODA won those guilds, I’m not dumb. But it would still be breaking stats that haven’t been broken since 1930s.

    Do you really think a random IMDb score stat is just as important as a Best Picture stat?

    A lot of people here are using IMDb scores as one of the reasons TPOTD won’t be winning BP, so I don’t see why Crabbie can’t use it in Writing.

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    rue
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    #1204876371

    The temptation to just predict TWPITW and The Lost Daughter and simply manifest

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    crabbie
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    #1204876449

    Do you really think a random IMDb score stat is just as important as a Best Picture stat?

    It’s not random though. It’s a 2 decade old stat that makes sense. Voting members gravitate to films that are generally well liked and accessible in screenplay. Green Book and The King Speech are unpopular wins, but are quite loved by the general public with IMDB scores over 8.0. PTA is an overdue auteur whose been compared to Spike Jonze, Taraninto, and Woody Allen. Yet, Licorice Pizza’s IMDB score ain’t making sense when it’s 7.4 and Midnight in Paris is 7.7, Her is 8.0, and Django Unchained is 8.5. Jonze, Allen, and Taraninto all won the Globe too. So the stars really aligned. I’m rooting for PTA to win his first Oscar, but the loss at WGA to a rotten film can’t be overlooked.

    Likewise, Belfast and Don’t Look Up are touted as crowdpleasers but their IMDB scores aint adding up for a crowdpleaser either. Far too low and are scores all lower than The King Speech and The Big Short. No winner makes that much sense.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    estrelas
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    #1204876489

    Obviously, predicting The Worst Person in the World is extremely risky considering it lacks a BP nom. But we also have to look at the outside factors and the competition. The Worst Person in the World unfortunately didn’t do as well as it could due to a faulty campaign but it still manged an Original Screenplay, outside International. It also happens to have the most consensus critics/audience wise, box office hit and  peaked at the perfect time. The field is also all over the place and none of the movies seem to have that much passion. Belfast is a tank with the guilds and in its home country, Don’t Look Up is divisive and has a RT rotten score, Licorice Pizza is also divisive and lost WGA, and King Richard is just there, I guess. Anyone who gets this category right, deserves all the praise.

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    veronikavoss
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    #1204876569

    The best nominees in each category are the non-English screenplays. Would be an absolute dream if both Drive My Car and Worst Person could somehow pull it out together (but expecting CODA/Belfast).

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    crabbie
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    #1204876679

    The Don’t Look Up WGA win was the only significant award it got in the season. Likewise,  the only relevant screenplay awards Captain Phillips and Borat: Subsequent received were also from WGA. These three films lost at BAFTA. Only problem is I can see Don’t Look Up creating a precedent on its own. This is pretty much an unprecedented Original Screenplay race, that’s for certain. I’m going to predict The Worst Person in the World.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    SN
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    #1204876697

    It’s not random though. It’s a 2 decade old stat that makes sense. Voting members gravitate to films that are generally well liked and accessible in screenplay. Green Book and The King Speech are unpopular wins, but are quite loved by the general public with IMDB scores over 8.0. PTA is an overdue auteur whose been compared to Spike Jonze, Taraninto, and Woody Allen. Yet, Licorice Pizza’s IMDB score ain’t making sense when it’s 7.4 and Midnight in Paris is 7.7, Her is 8.0, and Django Unchained is 8.5. Jonze, Allen, and Taraninto all won the Globe too. So the stars really aligned. I’m rooting for PTA to win his first Oscar, but the loss at WGA to a rotten film can’t be overlooked.

    Likewise, Belfast and Don’t Look Up are touted as crowdpleasers but their IMDB scores aint adding up for a crowdpleaser either. Far too low and are scores all lower than The King Speech and The Big Short. No winner makes that much sense.

    Licorice Pizza is literally only 0.1 below Promising Young Woman and if I’m not mistaken that film had a lower score around a year ago.

    If the expanded ballot existed in 2004, the Best Picture stat would be way older than this IMDb stat.

    A lot of people here are using IMDb scores as one of the reasons TPOTD won’t be winning BP, so I don’t see why Crabbie can’t use it in Writing.

    TPOTD is way below all BP winners from the last decades and has mixed audience scores everywhere, whilst Licorice Pizza is just 0.1 below the last Original Screenplay winner on IMDb. I don’t think the two cases are that comparable.

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    Barbra Please
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    #1204876699

    Darling, is there anyone here predicted Doggie in Adapted Screenplay? I keep changing between Doggie, to Drive My Car to CODA, and to Doggie again. I have such doubt lol

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    Anna Artdeco
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    #1204876701

    This category is all over the place so I’m just predicting the best screenplay here: The Worst Person In The World.

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    babypook
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    #1204876705

    Darling, is there anyone here predicted Doggie in Adapted Screenplay? I keep changing between Doggie, to Drive My Car to CODA, and to Doggie again. I have such doubt lol

    You’re not alone. Do a gut check. I’m not overly fond of bean counting.

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    crabbie
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    #1204876717

    Licorice Pizza is literally only 0.1 below Promising Young Woman and if I’m not mistaken that film had a lower score around a year ago.

    If the expanded ballot existed in 2004, the Best Picture stat would be way older than this IMDb stat.

    Licorice Pizza shouldn’t have an IMDB score lower than Promising Young Woman to begin with. Aside from IMDB, its Rotten Tomatoes all audience score is at 62% while Promising Young Woman’s all audience score is 84%. A vast difference.

    Licorice Pizza is divisive and its loss at WGA cements that especially considering how WGA has been going to critically acclaimed films in Original Screenplay and for the organization to go with the panned film is…telling.

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    M
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    #1204876760

    So I randomly had a dream watching the Oscars, and Licorice Pizza and Drive My Car won Original and Adapated respectively.

    In a year that makes zero sense, I guess I’m just gonna roll with it. Maybe my subconscious knows better.. lmao

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    The Oscarguy
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    #1204876795

    If Drive My Car and Worst Person won their respective Screenplay categories, I would be so over the moon that I wouldn’t care how rest of the awards go.

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    oscarin7
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    #1204876832

    So I randomly had a dream watching the Oscars, and Licorice Pizza and Drive My Car won Original and Adapated respectively.

    In a year that makes zero sense, I guess I’m just gonna roll with it. Maybe my subconscious knows better.. lmao

    I had a dream CODA won Best Picture, no joke. I don’t know how to feel…

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