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Oscars 2022: Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay (Part 2)

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    Nameizmann
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    #1204876880

    Belfast is not winning screenplay. It literally lost every single guild.

    Like it or not Don’t Look Up is winning. It fits the mold of recent winners

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    Go Yeoh!
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    #1204876899

    Final Predications

    Original – The Worst Person In The World.

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    kbc
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    #1204876930

    A Look Back to Look Forward: The Power of the Dog is this season’s sole nomination leader (no ties with other films), with 12.

    so, how well did the sole nomination leaders in Oscar history perform? There were 35 that claimed the top prize, but there were a significant number – 27 – of such nom leaders that were not BP winners.

    The biggest gaps in nom tallies between the lone nom leader and the year’s BP winner:
    The Revenant (12) vs. Spotlight (6)
    Johnny Belinda (12) Vs. Hamlet (7)
    Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? (13) vs. A Man for All Seasons (8)
    Reds (12) vs. Chariots of Fire (7)
    The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring(13) vs. A Beautiful Mind (8)
    Lincoln (12) vs. Argo (7)

    The biggest gaps in win tallies between the lone nom leader and the year’s BP winner:
    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (3) vs. Slumdog Millionaire (8)
    Giant (1) vs. Around the World in 80 Days (5)

    7th Heaven (1927-28) [3/5] – lost to Wings [2/2]
    The Love Parade (1929-30) [0/6] – lost to All Quiet on the Western Front [2/4]
    One Night of Love (1934) [2/6] – lost to It Happened One Night [5/5]
    Sergeant York (1941) [2/11] – lost to How Green Was My Valley [5/10]
    The Song of Bernadette (1943) [4/12] – lost to Casablanca [3/8]
    The Bells of St. Mary’s [1/8] – lost to The Lost Weekend [4/7]
    Johnny Belinda (1948) [1/12] – lost to Hamlet [4/7]
    The Heiress (1949) [4/8] – lost to All the King’s Men [3/7]
    A Streetcar Named Desire (1951) [4/12] – lost to An American in Paris [6/8]
    Giant (1956) [1/10] – lost to Around the World in 80 Days [5/8]
    Sayonara (1957) [4/10] – lost to The Bridge on the River Kwai [7/8]
    Mary Poppins (1964) [5/13] – lost to My Fair Lady [8/12]
    Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? [5/13] (1966) – lost to A Man for All Seasons [6/8]
    Anne of the Thousand Days [1/10] (1969) – lost to Midnight Cowboy [3/7]
    Reds (1981) [3/12] – lost to Chariots of Fire [4/7]
    Bugsy (1991) [2/10] – lost to The Silence of the Lambs [5/7]
    The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001) [4/13] – lost to A Beautiful Mind [4/8]
    The Aviator (2004) [5/11] – lost to Million Dollar Baby [4/7]
    Brokeback Mountain (2005) [3/8] – lost to Crash [3/6]
    #Dreamgirls (2006) [2/8] wasn’t a BP nominee; Babel [1/7] was the most-nominated BP nominee – lost to The Departed [4/5]
    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008) [3/13] – lost to Slumdog Millionaire [8/10]
    Hugo (2011) [5/11] – lost to The Artist [5/10]
    Lincoln (2012) [2/12] – lost to Argo [3/7]
    The Revenant (2015) [3/12] – lost to Spotlight [2/6]
    La La Land (2016) [6/14] – lost to Moonlight [3/8]
    Joker (2019) [2/11] – lost to Parasite [4/6]
    Mank (2020) [2/10] – lost to Nomadland [3/6]

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    Anna Delvey
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    #1204876942

    OK, and how many of those films were the ostensible frontrunners going in that swept the critics, won GG, CC and BAFTA, and won directing, had an editing nom, at least one acring nom and BTL support? Just putting out these stats does nothing. POTD also overperformed in a way it didn’t have to. Sure, something like Joker did as well, but Joker was nowhere close to being the frontrunner. You’re making a hollow point here.

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    Marcus.H
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    #1204876961

    Darling, is there anyone here predicted Doggie in Adapted Screenplay? I keep changing between Doggie, to Drive My Car to CODA, and to Doggie again. I have such doubt lol

    I think Dog is not even top 2 in Adapted, based on those anonymous ballots. I mean… screenplay is literally why ppl dislike TPOTD. Dog still have a chance in BP, but screenplay seems impossible. Remind me of Nomadland whose screenplay is also weak but many predicted it just because it was the top BP contender.

    Coen-Lynch-Fellini

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    Anna Delvey
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    #1204876968

    I think Dog is not even top 2 in Adapted, based on those anonymous ballots. I mean… screenplay is literally why ppl dislike TPOTD. Dog still have a chance in BP, but screenplay seems impossible. Remind me of Nomadland whose screenplay is also weak but many predicted it just because it was the top BP contender.

    But it’s literally leading or at least tied in screenplay with ballots right now…

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    kbc
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    #1204876974

    Just putting out these stats does nothing.

    Seems like a broader lesson for all of GD – many selectively love to go stats-wild, but it’s emblematic of a problem of leaning too hard on such data for “pattern recognition” so when, as always happens, some factor throws a spanner in the works, it becomes a scramble.

    Anyway, will Dog become No. 28 .. or No. 36? The suspense mounts. And that 9-nom gap between it and CODA is going to set quite the new high bar should the PGA/WGA/SAG ensemble winner take top prize on Sunday.

    FYC
    Best Picture: "Showing Up" (A24); “Bones & All” (MGM/UA)
    Best Director: Kelly Reichardt; Luca Guadagnino
    Best Actress: Michelle Williams; Taylor Russell
    Best Actor: Timothee Chalamet
    Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau, Heather Lawless, Amanda Plummer; Chloe Sevigny
    Best Supporting Actor: Judd Hirsch, Andre Benjamin, John Magaro; Mark Rylance, Andre Holland, Michael Stuhlbarg
    Best Original Screenplay: Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond
    Best Adapted Screenplay: David Kajganich

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    wolfali
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    Sep 4th, 2018
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    #1204877078

    If Penelope Cruz can win a wide open best actress with no precursor nominations I don’t see why The Worst Person in the World can’t do the same in a wide open original screenplay race. Especially when it also is leading these anonymous ballots by a strong margin (even as the adapted screenplay race is split in pretty much four directions) and is also a late-breaking contender that attracted a lot of passion and visibility after the nominations were announced.

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    Novic
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    May 23rd, 2011
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    #1204877108

    You all take the anonymous ballots so seriously. 20 anonymous votes is not that reflective of the 9,000+ membership.

    I’m going BAFTA winners CODA and Licorice Pizza.

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    babypook
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    #1204877115

    You all take the anonymous ballots so seriously. 20 anonymous votes is not that reflective of the 9,000+ membership.

    I’m going BAFTA winners CODA and Licorice Pizza.

    I went with CODA and Belfast although, I didn’t feel enthusiastic about those choices.

    The Sunne in Splendour.
    I prefer my roses white

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    Go Yeoh!
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    #1204877132

    TPOD became a frontrunner by virtue of its nomination haul and critics’ win. It wasn’t because of its wins at any industry award that was making people put it at No. 1. The assumption being that since it is taking the best picture, it will take the best screenplay. Which doesn’t seem to be the case.

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    babypook
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    #1204877149

    TPOD became a frontrunner by virtue of its nomination haul and critics’ win. It wasn’t because of its wins at any industry award that was making people put it at No. 1. The assumption being that since it is taking the best picture, it will take the best screenplay. Which doesn’t seem to be the case.

    I’m not as critical of DOG’S sp as some. I think it was one of it’s stronger components. But I can understand why it’s divisive.

    The Sunne in Splendour.
    I prefer my roses white

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    crabbie
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    #1204877762

    Caved in and am now predicting Don’t Look Up to win Original Screenplay. I have The Worst Person in the World in 2nd place. I can’t ignore the panned film beating the critically acclaimed film at WGA. Good luck to The Worst Person in the World predictors., and let’s hope the Best Screenplay in the lineup wins. 

    Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

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    #1204877842
    This post was found to be inappropriate by the moderators and has been removed.
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    marty
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    #1204877844

    Someone forgot to take their meds. Or escaped the nuthouse.

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