Oscars 2022: Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 228 Posts: 34415 View Predictions]

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Is there a thread for this already? These are my two favourite categories to discuss at the Oscars so I thought I’d create one if not.

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[mateil Joined: Aug 23rd, 2017 Topics: 5 Posts: 236 View Predictions]

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I think there’s a good chance history is made this year with every Picture nominee getting a screenplay nomination.

[Jacob "Oscar Boy" Boe Joined: Apr 20th, 2019 Topics: 4 Posts: 774 View Predictions]

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Adapted:

Chaos Walking

Cinderella

Snake Eyes

Venom: Let There Be Carnage

The Woman in the Window

 

Original:

Malignant

Red Notice

Reminiscence

Thunder Force

The Tomorrow War

Emmys FYC:

Comedy Series - Abbott Elementary, Atlanta, Barry, The Great, Hacks, Only Murders in the Building, Reservation Dogs, Ted Lasso, What We Do in the Shadows

Drama Series - Better Call Saul, Ozark, Pachinko, Severance, Squid Game, Stranger Things, Succession, This Is Us, Yellowjackets

Limited Series - Station Eleven

[Elsa Korr Joined: Oct 16th, 2020 Topics: 4 Posts: 1762 View Predictions]

#1204428313

Wright to need earn his first Oscar noms ASAP. if its not for Directing, perhaps Original Screenplay should be one with Krysty Wilson Cairns

FYC:
Best Director: Edgar Wright, Guillermo Del Toro, Jane Campion
Best Picture: Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog
Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Thomasin McKenzie, Rooney Mara, Tessa Thompson
Best Actor: Benedict Cumberbatch, Bradley Cooper
Best S. Actress: Cate Blanchett, Diana Rigg, Anya Taylor Joy
Best S. Actor: Kodi Smit McPhee, Willem Dafoe, Richard Jenkins

[George Ehret Joined: Sep 3rd, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 2375 View Predictions]

#1204428316

Adapted
1. The Power of the Dog
2. The Humans
3. Nightmare Alley
4. Dune
5. The Lost Daughter

Original
1. Belfast
2. Soggy Bottom
3. Don’t Look Up
4. The Hand of God
5. Last Night in Soho

FYC
Everything Everywhere All at Once for everything, everywhere, all at once

[wolfali Joined: Sep 4th, 2018 Topics: 228 Posts: 34415 View Predictions]

#1204428349

I think The Tragedy of Macbeth will miss. Unless there’s any substantial adaptation there I feel like the writers branch tends to avoid nominating play adaptations (see Ma Rainey missing last year).

[alittle03 Joined: Sep 16th, 2020 Topics: 5 Posts: 1895 View Predictions]

#1204428396

Adapted:

1. The Power of the Dog
2. Dune
3. Nightmare Alley
4. The Lost Daughter
5. The Humans

6. The Tragedy of Macbeth
7. The Last Duel
8. House of Gucci
9. Passing
10. West Side Story

A lot of these slots are VERY interchangeable to me, so none of this is set in stone. In fact, I welcome second opinions because Adapted is so tricky to predict. I personally want to put Passing higher, but I’m so so hesitant.

Original:

1. Untitled PTA
2. Don’t Look Up
3. The French Dispatch
4. The Hand of God
5. Last Night in Soho

6. Belfast
7. Mass
8. C’mon, C’mon
9. Being the Ricardos
10. A Hero

I’m more confident in Original than Adapted, but I’m still iffy on the way I’m predicting some of these contenders.

• FYC: Everything Everywhere All at Once in any and every single category, especially Best Picture, Michelle Yeoh in Actress, Stephanie Hsu in Supporting Actress, The Daniels in Director/Screenplay, Paul Rogers in Editing, and Son Lux in Score.

[fvg627 Joined: Sep 23rd, 2019 Topics: 0 Posts: 133 View Predictions]

#1204428406

mateil wrote:

I think there’s a good chance history is made this year with every Picture nominee getting a screenplay nomination.

With 10 films in picture this year, the odds of this happening are far lower than they’ve been in recent years

[Vincent Figueroa Joined: Jul 26th, 2021 Topics: 0 Posts: 191 View Predictions]

#1204428467

Original

1.Don’t  look up

2. Soggy bottom

3. Hand of God

4. Worst person in the World

5. Last Night in Soho

 

Adaptation:

1.The Power of Dog
2. Lost Daughter

3.The Humans

4.Dune

5.Tick, tick boom

[George Ehret Joined: Sep 3rd, 2019 Topics: 5 Posts: 2375 View Predictions]

#1204428518

wolfali wrote:

I think The Tragedy of Macbeth will miss. Unless there’s any substantial adaptation there I feel like the writers branch tends to avoid nominating play adaptations (see Ma Rainey missing last year).

Or if the original playwright adapted their own play like The Father or Fences

FYC
Everything Everywhere All at Once for everything, everywhere, all at once

[Arman Saxena Joined: Jul 24th, 2017 Topics: 0 Posts: 181 View Predictions]

#1204429577

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Soggy Bottom

Don’t Look Up

Being the Ricardos

The French Dispatch

The Hand of God

Could Jump In: Last Night in Soho, Belfast, C’mon C’mon, Parallel Mothers, A Hero, Mass, Spencer

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Power of the Dog

Nightmare Alley

House of Gucci

The Humans

The Lost Daughter

Could Jump In: The Tragedy of Macbeth, CODA, Dune, The Last Duel, Tick, Tick…Boom, Passing, West Side Story

[crabbie Joined: Feb 26th, 2021 Topics: 1 Posts: 4282 View Predictions]

#1204429583

I think the most likely lone screenplay contenders could be

Mass (if Dowd misses in Supporting Actress)

Passing (if Negga misses in Supporting Actress and Thompson misses in Actress)

C’Mon C’Mon (If Joaquin misses in Actor)

CODA (if Matlin misses in Supporting Actress and Emilia Jones misses in Actress)

I think CODA is the most likely contender to be a lone screenplay nominee since I would say it’s acting contenders are extremely unlikely to get a nomination. CODA is one of the most crowdpleasing films of the year so far and most of its charm is found in the screenplay and performances. I can see the writers branch throwing a bone to the film in Adapted Screenplay for Siân Heder’s beloved screenplay.

Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.

[DaKardii Joined: Jan 12th, 2018 Topics: 31 Posts: 597 View Predictions]

#1204429783

SEPTEMBER PREDICTIONS

Best Original Screenplay

1. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Film
2. The French Dispatch
3. Don’t Look Up
4. Mass
5. A Hero
6. Belfast
7. King Richard
8. Being the Ricardos
9. C’mon, C’mon
10. Parallel Mothers

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Power of the Dog
2. The Tragedy of Macbeth
3. CODA
4. House of Gucci
5. Nightmare Alley
6. Passing
7. Dune
8. The Last Duel
9. In the Heights
10. Flag Day

[Marcus.H Joined: Oct 21st, 2017 Topics: 1 Posts: 1068 View Predictions]

#1204435531

Mass seems safer and safer for an original screenplay nom.

Coen-Lynch-Fellini

[crabbie Joined: Feb 26th, 2021 Topics: 1 Posts: 4282 View Predictions]

#1204435536

Original Screenplay thoughts:

Parallel Mothers should be safe since its a return to form for Almodóvar. He previously won in this category before in 2003. I think the writers branch wants to embrace him especially since the film got glowing reviews.

Don’t Look Up should be fine since McKay gets in for screenplays.

A Focus film is most likely to get in too since their players are quite strong. Belfast is an autobiography that is imbued with Branagh’s nostalgic childhood. Basically a Minari, Jojo Rabbit, Lady Bird type of Original Screenplay nod. Last Night in Soho being co-written by recent Oscar nominated screenwriter, Krysty Wilson-Cairns, is also quite buzzy with the screenplay embarking on social commentary concerning female exploitation and idol worship. We will see how Soho is received today. Then Focus also has The Card Counter which has been getting good critics reviews and could be the classical lone screenplay nominee which was achieved by Schrader for First Reformed 2 years ago. Whatever film it is, I think Focus is getting one of their players in.

Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch seems to be receiving a cold reception with audience members but I don’t think this will be a problem for The French Dispatch in Original Screenplay since the film is quite ambitious and creative as anthology period piece film which I think the writers branch will want to acknowledge. Moonrise Kingdom missed picture but got in Original Screenplay so there’s that.

Last spot is tricky. Too early to tell I think it will be between Soggy Bottom and Being The Ricardos.

 

Michelle (Yeoh, Williams) Oscar campaign manager.