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There won’t be a lone nominee this year now that Ruth Negga is in.
(On the other hand, I said the same thing last year and looked pretty stupid afterwards.)
Letterboxd: Ray_In_Bruges
House of Gucci could sneak in here. 👀
FYC:
Everything Everywhere All At Once in every eligible category
Hold My Hand - Lady Gaga for Best Original Song
^ this.
Gucci is a big, bold, operatic film – voters might love the scope and effort it took to write it especially after watching a bunch of smaller movies.
Since it doesn’t look like Cruz will make it in to Best Actress Pedro Almodovar could very well make it in to Original Screenplay as a sole nominee for Parallel Mothers.
I still think Mass can appeal to the writer’s branch and make it in; that’s the one I am actually predicting. I loved C’mon C’mon’s screenplay but there are too many other films ahead of it. I wish they would have the guts to not nominate Licorice Pizza and make room for much better screenplays instead but I don’t think they know they can do it.
If there is a sole nominee it will be in Original Screenplay and not in Adapted Screenplay.
Licorice is the frontrunner for Original and likely winner come Oscar night. It deserves it too.
TPOTD is a lock for Adapted.
Now that we know all the ineligibilities, my WGA predix!
Original
C’mon C’mon
Don’t Look Up
The French Dispatch
Licorice Pizza
Red RocketAdapted
CODA
Dune
The Last Duel
Tick Tick Boom
West Side StoryFYC: PHYSICAL (Rose Byrne) THE SEX LIVES OF COLLEGE GIRLS (Amrit Kaur, Renee Rapp) YELLOWJACKETS (Samantha Hanratty, Christina Ricci) THE OTHER TWO (Drew Tarver, Helene Yorke) THE GREAT (Elle Fanning) BETTER THINGS (Pamela Adlon)
Like I’ve probably said before, LAFCA Screenplay winners almost never miss a nomination, even if it seems like a critics-only thing and winds up a lone nominee. Of course Drive My Car could break a long trend and get snubbed but it seemed like a pretty easy victory from them, and like I said, it’s just a tough trend to ignore in Adapted.
Between the foreign contenders in Original Screenplay, I can see SPC helping Pedro out for Parallel Mothers but that film just consistently seems to perform like, a day late and a dollar short. I think Amazon’s campaign for Farhadi’s A Hero might be a little more convincing to the writers’ branch than their campaign for Being the Ricardos and Sorkin this year — actors seem to like it, but then again the acting is like the only reason that movie’s worth watching. And Sorkin’s missed for stuff like Steve Jobs and A Few Good Men — he’s hardly undeniable with other writers.
Also not buying Mass. Can’t count out C’mon C’mon with Mills’ record, but it really seems like it should have been more present in precursors and critics prizes than it has been.
I saw a post on one of the Oscars subreddits about how strong a stat the lone screenplay nominee is, but some of them like The White Tiger last year feel like coincidences more than anything (eg Ma Rainey losing steam and dropping off in Picture/Screenplay). It’s obviously hard to say since WGA and BAFTA have yet to weigh in this season but do people think it’s actually a guarantee that at least one film will continue the streak?
At this early stage I could see Mass or Parallel Mothers happening, I agree that C’mon C’mon feels a bit weak.
USC Scripter Nominations
• “Dune” (screenwriters Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve), based on the novel of the same name (author Frank Herbert)
• “The Lost Daughter” (screenwriter Maggie Gyllenhaal), based on the novel of the same name (author Elena Ferrante)
• “Passing” (screenwriter Rebecca Hall), based on the novel of the same name (author Nella Larsen)
• “The Power of the Dog” (screenwriter Jane Campion), based on the novel of the same name (author Thomas Savage)
• “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (screenwriter Joel Coen), based on the play “Macbeth” (playwright William Shakespeare)After the Buster Scruggs incident, I’ll try not to bet against a Coen in the Screenplay categories. If it makes BAFTA, I’ll predict it for the Oscars
Original Screenplay is one of the most difficult categories to predict for me. It’s so hard to pick a lone nominee between “C’mon C’mon”, “Parallel Mothers”, “Mass”.
Do you think “The French Dispatch” is in by the way? I didn’t particularly like that screenplay, but it seems to be doing okay with critics prizes.
Original Screenplay is one of the most difficult categories to predict for me. It’s so hard to pick a lone nominee between “C’mon C’mon”, “Parallel Mothers”, “Mass”.
Do you think “The French Dispatch” is in by the way? I didn’t particularly like that screenplay, but it seems to be doing okay with critics prizes.
Agreed. I’m very back-and-forth with both of the screenplay categories. I have a good feeling about C’mon C’mon, and I have Drive My Car as the non-BP screenplay nominee in Adapted…
My username is an acronym of “Quiet On Set! Lights, Camera, Action.” 🎥
Do you think “The French Dispatch” is in by the way? I didn’t particularly like that screenplay, but it seems to be doing okay with critics prizes.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see it get in just because Wes Anderson is so well-liked, and the film itself is popular enough, but I think it has enough detractors (and those dectractors’ biggest complaint is its screenplay) that the film will get nominated for its strengths, i.e. Production Design/Score/Costumes and miss out here.
FYC: PHYSICAL (Rose Byrne) THE SEX LIVES OF COLLEGE GIRLS (Amrit Kaur, Renee Rapp) YELLOWJACKETS (Samantha Hanratty, Christina Ricci) THE OTHER TWO (Drew Tarver, Helene Yorke) THE GREAT (Elle Fanning) BETTER THINGS (Pamela Adlon)
Is WSS eligible for WGA? I can’t find the article with the movies available right now. I’d be curious to see if it gets in there, since it missed USC Scripter awards.
Is WSS eligible for WGA? I can’t find the article with the movies available right now. I’d be curious to see if it gets in there, since it missed USC Scripter awards.
Yes, it is. If it misses then it’s not getting in at the Oscars (and therefore it’s not winning Picture). I don’t think it will be the case though because The Power of the Dog, Passing, Cyrano and The Lost Daughter are ineligible.
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